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Posted
10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

The route taking longer directly results in a reduced volume of oil being transported over a time frame, all while making the trip more expensive and therefore less profitable for Russia.

What started out as a war funded with a gigantic Russian rainy day petrodollar fund has turned into a war being funded by payday loans at usurious rates. 

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Posted
11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our officials need to stop embarrassing themselves with the Russians.  They aren’t backing down, the only understand force

 

"Ignoring Trump's push for peace."  Using him as a cuck again.  Someone needs to make sure he knows that.

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Posted
15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS

Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that. 

It proves many things: Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically. Russian energy was always unreliable. Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.

I saw the downfall of Southstream.

I saw the downfall of Nordstream. 

And now the whole European market for Russian gas is getting buried.

This is what I mean when I say that Russia is losing in the long run. All what you need is determination, patience and tenacity.

The European market was the primary reason why Russia raked in so much money the last three decades.

The European customers were reliable, paid well and were easily to access, who in turn put in a lot of investments into Russia. Now all of that is gone because of petty imperial ambitions of a short man who never accepted the downfall of the Soviet empire.

Russia is now forced to sell oil and gas with huge price cuts, which barely covers processing costs while India and China completely suck out the last bits of life from Russia.

 

14 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Kinda like China and US soybeans!

I'm not that familiar with the European gas market (I don't have tome to go down that rabbit hole), so i'm not exactly sure what gas price is shown in the graph. 

But my first guess is that is an apples and boxcars comparison.

Below is a similar plot of US gas prices, with no indication of the source of the data. Directionally, it appears to be valid information, but the entities that have the trading data also tend to have an agenda, so beware. 

image.png.5c64339920f7d6fd2611b46e8786e68b.png

If you over lay the two plots, they are similar, which one might conclude that US and European prices are the same.

In one sense they are, but in reality, they are very different. The US has 100's (1,000's) of supply points and 1,000's of delivery points, with 1000's of transactions reflected in the gas spot market price at a specific point in time. In the US, the paper price is indicative of the real price. By comparison, mainland Europe (Not the UK and Norway) has a much smaller gas market, with minimal native gas supplies, and fewer, and larger delivery points. In the one sense, it is also a valid price, but I expect the volumes transacted at that price on a daily basis is but a small fraction of the US volumes

From the graph, one might conclude the US and European prices are similar, so why do they need to import LNG? Well without LNG, that gas price goes off the chart.

 I asked Google, "What is the delivered cost of LNG to Europe?"

(Again, directionally, the answer and information is within reason.)

"AI Overview

The delivered cost of LNG to Europe in late 2024/early 2025 typically ranges from $10–$15/MMBTU, but varies significantly with market conditions, adding liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs to the base gas price (like U.S. Henry Hub).

Factors like high Henry Hub prices, increased demand, and freight rates pushed delivered prices up in late 2024, while cooler weather and ample storage can lower them, with prices sometimes hovering around 33–50 €/MWh (equivalent to $10–$15/MMBTU) at the Dutch TTF hub. 

Cost Breakdown:
Base Gas (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub): ~$3–4/MMBTU (in early 2025 estimates).
Liquefaction: ~$2–$3.50/MMBTU (fees for turning gas into LNG).
Shipping (Freight): Highly variable, $1–$3/MMBTU or more, depending heavily on distance and tanker demand.
Regasification: ~$0.50–$1/MMBTU (cost to turn LNG back into gas in Europe). 
Key Price Drivers:
Henry Hub Price: The cost of gas at the source (US).
Shipping Demand: Higher demand (like surges in winter) increases freight costs, widening the gap between source and delivered prices.
European Storage Levels: Low storage levels and cold weather drive up European spot prices (TTF). 
Recent Trends (Late 2024/Early 2025):
Europe's high prices have attracted record U.S. LNG exports, even pushing prices above Asian markets.

While U.S. Henry Hub prices rose, European spot prices (TTF) recently saw lower levels in late 2024 due to milder weather, though cold snaps can quickly reverse this, increasing costs. 

In essence, it's a market driven by supply, demand, and transport economics, with U.S. LNG often costing significantly more in Europe than pre-2022 pipeline gas." 

So, somebody is paying $10-15/MMbtu (3-4x the US gas cost) for the European gas price to be the "same" as the US.

20 years ago, the US built LNG import terminals (at the beginning of the shale boom, which unlocked Appalachia gas). Some actually imported LNG. Most of them started up as LNG export terminals, without ever importing LNG. It wasn't as simple as switching two wires and reversing the polarity. It takes $ Billions of dollars, tons of paperwork, and a regulatory nightmare, all of which is at the whim of the current administration. The long haul gas pipelines from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, were bifurcated, with Appalachia gas supplying both the Northeast US demand and a new Gulf Coast LNG export market.

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Posted
Just now, PTINS said:

I'm not that familiar with the European gas market (I don't have tome to go down that rabbit hole), so i'm not exactly sure what gas price is shown in the graph. 

But my first guess is that is an apples and boxcars comparison.

Below is a similar plot of US gas prices, with no indication of the source of the data. Directionally, it appears to be valid information, but the entities that have the trading data also tend to have an agenda, so beware. 

image.png.5c64339920f7d6fd2611b46e8786e68b.png

If you over lay the two plots, they are similar, which one might conclude that US and European prices are the same.

In one sense they are, but in reality, they are very different. The US has 100's (1,000's) of supply points and 1,000's of delivery points, with 1000's of transactions reflected in the gas spot market price at a specific point in time. In the US, the paper price is indicative of the real price. By comparison, mainland Europe (Not the UK and Norway) has a much smaller gas market, with minimal native gas supplies, and fewer, and larger delivery points. In the one sense, it is also a valid price, but I expect the volumes transacted at that price on a daily basis is but a small fraction of the US volumes

From the graph, one might conclude the US and European prices are similar, so why do they need to import LNG? Well without LNG, that gas price goes off the chart.

 I asked Google, "What is the delivered cost of LNG to Europe?"

(Again, directionally, the answer and information is within reason.)

"AI Overview

The delivered cost of LNG to Europe in late 2024/early 2025 typically ranges from $10–$15/MMBTU, but varies significantly with market conditions, adding liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs to the base gas price (like U.S. Henry Hub).

Factors like high Henry Hub prices, increased demand, and freight rates pushed delivered prices up in late 2024, while cooler weather and ample storage can lower them, with prices sometimes hovering around 33–50 €/MWh (equivalent to $10–$15/MMBTU) at the Dutch TTF hub. 

Cost Breakdown:
Base Gas (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub): ~$3–4/MMBTU (in early 2025 estimates).
Liquefaction: ~$2–$3.50/MMBTU (fees for turning gas into LNG).
Shipping (Freight): Highly variable, $1–$3/MMBTU or more, depending heavily on distance and tanker demand.
Regasification: ~$0.50–$1/MMBTU (cost to turn LNG back into gas in Europe). 
Key Price Drivers:
Henry Hub Price: The cost of gas at the source (US).
Shipping Demand: Higher demand (like surges in winter) increases freight costs, widening the gap between source and delivered prices.
European Storage Levels: Low storage levels and cold weather drive up European spot prices (TTF). 
Recent Trends (Late 2024/Early 2025):
Europe's high prices have attracted record U.S. LNG exports, even pushing prices above Asian markets.

While U.S. Henry Hub prices rose, European spot prices (TTF) recently saw lower levels in late 2024 due to milder weather, though cold snaps can quickly reverse this, increasing costs. 

In essence, it's a market driven by supply, demand, and transport economics, with U.S. LNG often costing significantly more in Europe than pre-2022 pipeline gas." 

So, somebody is paying $10-15/MMbtu (3-4x the US gas cost) for the European gas price to be the "same" as the US.

20 years ago, the US built LNG import terminals (at the beginning of the shale boom, which unlocked Appalachia gas). Some actually imported LNG. Most of them started up as LNG export terminals, without ever importing LNG. It wasn't as simple as switching two wires and reversing the polarity. It takes $ Billions of dollars, tons of paperwork, and a regulatory nightmare, all of which is at the whim of the current administration. The long haul gas pipelines from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, were bifurcated, with Appalachia gas supplying both the Northeast US demand and a new Gulf Coast LNG export market.

I'm responding to myself, but I didn't want to pollute my first response.  This is borderline CR, but still related to the topic.

TLDR

The US has tremendous natural gas resources, and Biden kicked the LNG industry (and O&G) in the 'nads. Trump reversed that mindset, 100%, throwing gasoline on the fire. 

Gulp. Trump was right. I can't say it.

The US should produce gas, make LNG and export it, and Europe is much closer and easier than SE Asia.

But it will impact domestic gas prices. The next time Texas freezes for a week, who gets the little bit of gas still being produced? The sparks fly when the reality of the present day market gets in the face of long term contracts, and $$$. The answer is not binary, and it it not finished when the papers are signed. In is a huge, living, constantly changing beast, at it needs to be treated as such.

DJT may be a self anointed real estate mogul, but I think he and his 2 minute attention span would get his ass handed to him trading energy commodities. To be fair, I think that also applies to most of our former Presidents.  I will never understand the pushback on putting energy professionals in the Department of Energy. 

What happens with the next US administration? Back to the other extreme?

Europe is replacing Russian natural gas with imported LNG, from the US, and other places.

Europe will be dependent on the kind hand offered by the US.

Kind'a like NATO was. How's that's working out for them?

While looking for Russian refinery data, I saw some verbiage that Russia now flares more gas than any other country. It used to be between Iran and the US. 

Russia I'm not sure if that includes Nordstream, but the number was close to the pipeline capacity, ~ 3-4 BCF/day, or ~ 1 or 2 LNG plants.

When all is said and done, Russia has the gas production and reserves and the pipelines assets are already in place, and Russia SHOULD still be the cheapest source of gas for Europe. But Russia should never be the only source.

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