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gmr548

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  1. They'll both make it there. Warren has the resources to hold out that long and Klobuchar has gotten a bump out of NH. If Super Tuesday delivers a split decision I could see Warren trying to make it to the convention in hopes of being the compromise candidate.
  2. Warren would probably end up the nominee in a ranked choice scenario. She's the leading second choice for the supporters of most candidates abd continues to have very high favorability. I think that's the needle her campaign is trying to thread, and while I think it's a bad approach, I at least see the logic.
  3. Polling at five percent in FL is awful for her prospects, obviously, but it's a compliment otherwise.
  4. Just one poll but the numbers are at least encouraging. Trump hits a hard cap at 46-47 percent, with progressive candidates faring better. And of course the 52 percent no on reelection. I fully expect Trump to win here but it'd be incredibly satusfying if Texas was the decisive factor in telling the rustbelt and secsecsec to get fucked.
  5. Anecdotal evidence from a few family members does not change the fact tgat the majority of democratic voters support positions like M4A, tuition free public college, etc.
  6. Re: The socialism angle and Bernie: Trump will hammer Sanders on socialism. You think things like reality or the truth stop that man from saying whatever he thinks helps him? LOL Trump will go on about socialism. It'll work on people that were always going to vote for him, and yes, some overweight suburban middle management "moderate" types who really need to travel somewhere that isn't Branson, MO. That sucks. No way around it. Here's the thing though. He'll do that against any Democrat. They always do. And it will still work on that crowd. He'll do it to Pete, Klobuchar, hell he'd do it to George Bush. So that argument doesn't do much for me.
  7. Thanks for sharing. I was looking for something along these lines the other day. Hegar seems like a bit of a foregone conclusion.
  8. FL is still in that second tier just because of its enormous value. Even though I agree it trends R more than people acknowledge and it's pretty much the Democratic white whale for people not named Obama, you can't just concede it when it's that close.
  9. Jake Majors needs every minute of college s&c he can get
  10. After watching the first two D contests play out, I have to admit I'm trending more towards this kind of thinking. Party is a mess. Fortunately, now until November is an eternity in politics and most of the country doesn't pay attention until after this nominating process is long since over.
  11. Do you mind expanding on the Klobuchar-Warren angle? Not to pry or judge or anything, I am just genuinely curious. I'm not sure how one gets down to those two given how different they are, but clearly it's something that's happened with many voters (and the NYT editorial board). Unless you're being literal and saying you want to vote for a woman? We'll see in regard to Pete and Klobuchar. They're going to get media and fundraising boosts from Iowa and NH. That said, NV looks favorable for Sanders given labor's strength, the lower education levels, and the larger latino presence. The two biggest prizes on Super Tuesday, TX and CA, are favorable to Sanders. I'm still pretty sure Biden will win SC and he has the cash to make it into March. He stands to do well in the southern states with large proportions of black voters. Most of the delegates are awarded by the end of next month. When the Warren domino falls, he will pick up a significant chunk of her supporters. If anything, it getting messy and Sanders eeking out a narrow majority is looking more and more likely.
  12. Do find your first sentence interesting. It seems to be primarily Klobuchar that benefited, which is a weird pivot for the college educated female voters that appear to have driven that. Im not really sure what to make of that. As to your second point - uh, are you familiar with who the POTUS is and how we got here? I'd be careful with that assertion.
  13. New Hampshire's voters are 90 percent white. Iowa's are close to that. Pete and Klobuchar have polled atrociously among minority voters, which make up a much larger portion of the electorate in places where people actually live. Sanders has polled very well among latino voters, as well as younger black voters, and obviously black voters have supported Biden very strongly. I am skeptical of Buttigieg or Klobuchar's ability to hold up when the electorate gets more diverse, and younger as well. We've seen nothing so far to indicate that either of them have any significant support from minority voters, and obviously younger voters trend more to their left. If anything, Sanders is looking really good going forward. He's beaten them twice on the terms most favorable to them (IDGAF about the tiny number of delegates awarded in Iowa, Sanders got the most votes in the first and second rounds). Agreed that it was a brutal night for Warren though. Exit polls showed the main driver for Klobuchar's surge was a shift from Warren to her from college educated white women. Maybe that's temporary and/or localized given recent events, but it would seem she's lost her mojo.
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