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closetojumping

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closetojumping last won the day on March 3

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  1. For sure. I’ve been posting about it for a few weeks but who can keep up with this thread? My thoughts are in line with yours. I do think watching them each day is helpful in understanding the ebb and flow better. I also agree that the work they’re all doing to actually provide this information across cities, states, honest countries and the scrapers is really helpful and not easy.
  2. I’m dealing with a few smaller banks. They have had everything they need since Friday plus required edits due to SBA changes over the weekend. Two businesses have worked with Chase. As of right now, not one confirmed loan number from the SBA for any entity on our end has come through. It’s frustrating, but being patient. Here’s hoping you get yours, too.
  3. So, regarding the death tolls, it seems like weekends and Mondays don't provide the full picture, which is why we see the Tuesday numbers just. Basically, some groups don't report their counts before a state reports a number on Monday. For instance, Massachusetts posted a dramatically higher number today and than any other day, and their Monday number was low. Here's their note on it with today's update: "Please note that today’s reported deaths reflect deaths occurring over the weekend and the past 24 hours. DPH receives reports of deaths from more than one source that are then matched to laboratory confirmed cases and reported out as quickly as possible. See table below for details." In the 96 deaths, one female in her 40's with an underlying medical condition, three males and a female in their 50's with no known medical conditions. Everyone else was over 60, which is what every day pretty much looks like for them.
  4. This would be helpful to confirm. I read your posts about the Dallas stuff and scratch my head about that question. Is it cumulative or current? Hope how you're reading it is correct.
  5. Load this summer will be down if the C&I doesn't come back to near capacity/forecast, and it almost surely doesn't matter how heavily the resi-side uses. March, April, and potentially May of 2020 will be the highest residential loads, for those months, in ERCOT history. It still won't make a dent with so much C&I knocked out. It would be a great time to be a residential-oriented REP in Texas because power costs are so low and usage is so high. It's a dream scenario but for the moratorium on disconnects, which will lead to higher bad debt than forecasted for most of the electricity businesses. So, you really want to be a resi-based REP with a great average utility score within your base right now. For customers, everyone should prepare for significantly higher than expected electricity bills for the next 3 months of usage. March and April usage, along with November, are the lowest residential power usage periods in ERCOT, so most people are subconsciously going to be expecting a certain bill range and will be surprised when it's higher. This will lead to oddly unseasonal switching for lower prices. January, June-Sept see 75% of the switches in Texas for various established REPs, so this will be another unintended consequence that I'm betting will be studied due to this virus' impact on society. So watch your cornhole on your power bill and don't be afraid to switch if you're current with what you owe. There will probably amnesty granted on early termination fees if the PUC hears enough about it in this bizarre time. Also, with suppressed C&I usage, pricing on the grid could be shockingly low for the summer period if that's the case. Could actually be a boon for customers who switch during a seasonally regular period when their contract comes up. I'm guessing strips of summer power have come off of ridiculous forward-pricing in dramatic ways because of this. If they haven't, the traders are just holding off until someone capitulates and undercuts the market in order to shed position.
  6. The cases leveling off is pretty fucking great news. Reporting issues, sure, but if anything, that's driven case counts higher in single days as different places play catch-up. Seems like Tuesday death tolls always include straggling count from the weekend that didn't come in by the time many places reported their numbers on Monday. Brutal either way.
  7. Taleb has written extensively in the Black Swan trilogy about the hidden price people pay who prevent catastrophe. It's been harder to pin down historically, because we rarely know what the actual catastrophe was that was prevented in most instances. My guess is that he and others will have a relative field day doing the math on what happened here, and it should make for interesting reading. There was always going to be a group of dipshits with loud voices on social media screaming about the oncoming doomsday and there was always going to be a counterbalance in nature to that with a bunch of hillbillies and low information rubes that can't fathom what this is actually about - preventing the tidal wave overrun of the healthcare system and the domino effect it would have on our society.
  8. There's not a lie in that post. It's a reminder of some lunatic level shit you posted plus facts about today's death tolls around the country at the time of the post. Pretty straightforward. Given your posting behaviors, you calling anyone else a liar is pretty rich.
  9. Yeah, when you start going state by state with that one, they're not even vaguely close with a bunch of them. It's interesting mental candy nonetheless.
  10. I'm discussing information about the subject that has us all here on this thread. It's easy to put someone on ignore. You can do that and stop wailing about every post I make.
  11. Yes, that's what happened. It's in the thread. You'll lawyer it up and go full pedant at some point to attempt to prove otherwise, but you declaratively panicporned the thread and weren't even close to reality. It's good comedy during a shitty time, in any event, so thanks for that.
  12. Yeah, you're going to need a big run-up over the next four days. You predicted 10,000 deaths/day starting on Friday, argued for it emphatically in the last week of March and batted aside the premise of mitigation playing a role, and then doubled-down on this thread last Wednesday by restating the same. I don't know, early numbers today don't look great for the living. High death toll for NY, high early half day update for FL, Indiana looks like it could be flaring up really poorly for the living. Georgia posted some catch-up numbers on the death toll side so that number is inflated in reality, but still not good. Today could be the highest death toll for the US yet. Sucks. Was hoping to see the top end hold the line a bit. We won't be anywhere near 10k/day by Friday or within 25,000 of dipshit's numbers he called for by the start of next Wednesday, but it would be nice to see the plateau take hold and then dip in the next week. Probably fantasy, but it beats alternative choices.
  13. Boy, I haven't been on this thread in over 3 weeks. I come back to the first post I hadn't viewed and it's moved like 8 pages. Really grim time to be a sportsfan. I spoke to a buddy and basically, the new guys have been doing the stupid shit where they ignore facts and go offer guys in SEC footprint/east coast and convince themselves they have a shot, while not focusing on Texas recruits the way they should. This cycle is obviously weird, but it flexes strengths for guys like Mack Brown, who Facetime and convince momma that her boy needs to stay close to him during this difficult and uncertain time. It doesn't flex very well for the Texas or ATM staffs, conversely. The only thing worse than enduring an 8 hour in-home visit listening to Tom Herman talk is spending an hour with him awkwardly Facetiming. Texas woke up regarding Milroe once he was planning a trip to Auburn. Let's see if they can manage to stay the course there. It is almost a certainty that Q Davis and Campbell will not stick at whatever school they sign with, and probably make zero impact wherever they go, if they get in. There's a mountain of data to support shying away from guys that decommitment more than once, and it gets worse with every additional decommitment. Guys that can't stay at the same school for an entire academic year are even longer shots. Texas liked Campbell early, then realized what kind of bullshit he brings with his signature and they haven't paid attention since. Somewhere along the way, the same thing has more or less happened with Davis.
  14. An example of demographics within the death toll is what Georgia released tonight. Basically, the data shows very few deaths below 50, obviously even less below 40 and one below 30 so far within their state. Most of those below 50 had a defined pre-existing condition. One unfortunate dude, aged 31, showed no pre-existing condition, so for sure it can take anyone down, but it’s unlikely. Info is here: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report Also, Georgia caught up on some reporting tonight, so they had a big jump in deaths for Tuesday that folks will notice. It’s based on a cumulative review of deaths over the time period since they started tracking this.
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