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closetojumping

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closetojumping last won the day on April 23

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  1. "Every cycle is different." Since the 2022 cycle forward, NIL and the portal have combined to create an extremely complicated landscape to navigate. Texas (the Surly/Burton cabal, the AD, Sarkisian and staff, big money boosters) have solved the riddles presented in front of it each time. It hasn't been voodoo or just following the same "process". It's taken a lot of collective buy-in and hard, smart work and some luck each time. Hell, part of why Saban quit is because he couldn't model future recruiting cycles and portal activity into his "process". I don't know how much of the details he's gone into publicly about that, but he's gone into the nitty gritty on it in private, and he's become a plaintive bitch about it. At some point during each cycle, something has clicked for everyone involved and Sarkisian has been able to close on recruits, the current roster, and portal candidates. You can find the moments on the timelines for each period, really. Whatever the case, each cycle from July 1, 2021 forward has involved a spring/summer period of complete fucking shock. This one looks no different. I think a lot of folks are currently flatfooted by how some other programs are initial handling ramifications around House. "Past performance does not really inform future returns." I think this is important to note for this board, largely because there seems to be a reflexive "this is how it always goes" notion from the natives of this forum. I get it, but I'm not personally subscribing to that line of thinking. Why? Because the dynamics of this cycle are, yet again, different. Some of the money being thrown around by other schools, whether because they can (Oregon, Michigan) or because they're desperate (USC, LSU, Florida) or because they cannot help themselves and refuse to fall behind (Ohio State, Notre Dame) is fucking shocking. This is not a case of $100k making the difference. When other offers are coming over the top of yours by more than $1M for non-QB roles, that's just flat out new. Don't conflate some of these situations with a collective getting or staying aggressive, either. Some of this is coming through the school and not subject to the same compliance. It's "rev share" money. What happens if what's reported to be 85% of $20.5M is really $35M because the program can just do that? I haven't read the House agreement, but what I've heard and what makes sense is that if someone is washing through the rev share, no one externally is going to have the mechanisms to see or hinder that, or punish it. So what can programs do if that's the case? Do it as well? Not likely. Most schools cannot. The $20.5M is a huge fucking burden to get to in the first place. Other schools are just not going to take that approach. It seems pretty clear to me that Texas isn't going to do anything of that sort. Keep building through collectives? The burden has now been lightened for boosters at places like Texas, no doubt. However, if Texas wants to reach the mountain top and stay around there, they're going to have to be honest with themselves about it, much as Ohio State and Notre Dame are currently having to be as well. Will Texas? I don't know, but I'm relatively informed and still optimistic. "Maybe everyone is just catching up to us in NIL!?" I feel like this anxiety needs to walk away from the keyboards of this board, if nowhere else. No one is going to "catch" a competitive advantage. There is a very small handful of schools that sit above the rest in terms of access to capital and House doesn't change that. Texas would have to choose to give that up. Is that something a totally aligned organization and its benefactors are going to let happen? It seems unlikely. I think it is fair to think that Texas is still surveying the landscape and not making all of the moves early, but it will eventually take action and flips and surprises will fall in our favor down the line. I also think it is prudent to realize that there's risk on in this cycle that either may not happen or the calculations will be wrong, with timing being yet another factor that could work against Texas out of nowhere. "The current season doesn't really impact the current recruiting cycle." One final thought around all of this is that the performance within the season now matters more than ever. The old thought above this in bold is now an old trope. Money being funneled in for recruiting and roster management is some of the same money recruiting to buyout an old coaching staff and to hire a new one. Florida's money started flowing after they decided to keep Sun Belt Billy. If that flips and they have to fund a big buyout, there will be blood with that roster and recruiting class. If USC fucks the chicken again, they likely still can't afford to buyout Riley, but that obvious future need may well close off the NIL valve and lead to serious attrition even without coaching change. These are scenarios that will play out at multiple schools before the mythical "signing day" in December. I think Texas is going to have another amazing year on the field, so it can only benefit from the carnage within the realm of poor performance and coaching hot seats and firings.
  2. I worked with a woman for 6 years who was very hot in just about every way - great figure, face, hair, style, brains, attitude, you name it. Also, she had toe-thumbs. It was a distraction once you noticed it to the point of affecting how you viewed her overall appearance.
  3. I can say with absolute certainty that most of the women I hooked up with were hotter than her, including the one I wake up with these days. Also, her legs and knees are borderline disturbing.
  4. So you guys would like to go, dare I say, back to the bone?!?! IYKYK
  5. HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!! This is so over the top that I’m almost forced to believe it. Then I think about all of you pear-shaped people I’ve seen at the tailgates over the years and remember that Chili dog would be all over Heather Graham like white on rice if he had the chance. Emma Stone. Anna Kendrick.
  6. It's not like we like any of that shit either, but this is the path the school's leadership chose. Some byproducts of that decision are fine - the competition, bigger brands, money, recruiting. Some are not - generally being affiliated with a bunch of mouthbreathing, chestbeating hillbillies, seeing credit taken for UT's achievements and players' achievements, cheating, SEC chants, etc.
  7. It also might have helped that Bama didn't integrate the football team until the 1971 season. Elevate talent, innovate on offense and, voila, a great decade. When did Bryant switch out his aging staff for a bunch of new blood? My father's told me all of my life that one of the key things Bear did that DKR didn't was that he switched out his staff when things got stale and Bama wasn't winning at the level that Bryant thought they should be. I've never really fact-checked that, but your post reminded me of the premise.
  8. I don't see Texas as a serious contender here, but that can't be bad news for Texas. See if you can't get him to watch some of the season and how it plays it for everyone. See if other NIL coffers get depleted and the price becomes worth it to Texas. Etc., and so on. If Miami is his play, then getting him to watch some of the season would be helpful. Beck's plain as grits, still hurt to some degree and they don't have a solid backup. They lost everyone with starting experience at RB, WR, and TE. They have James Brockermeyer starting for them at C. On defense, they have one guy with 5.5 sacks returning and another with 3.5. They lost 8 defensive starters. They open the season with Notre Dame, Bethune Cookman, South Florida and Florida in the first 21 days. They don't play Clemson, GT, or Duke, all of whom should be good, but they do get Louisville, FSU, Syracuse, SMU, NC State, and Pitt, so the ACC tilts may not be total crap.
  9. I understand and generally agree with the sentiments in this post. That said, I do think being dismissive of the "conspiracy theory" that the guy was set up is hasty. Whatever side of the political spectrum anyone trends, pause has to be given these days to dismissing damned near anything immediately. How many Onion and Babylon Bee headlines over the last decade have then ultimately proven true or become true later? I know someone was tracking them at some point and both had hit rates in the double digits, which is disturbing to me. Case in point here, the female was a UU student, right? Now that he's being suspended and subsequently preparing to transfer, she withdraws the case, which was not a criminal case at any point. It's still farfetched as a set-up but it just got closer to not being totally unbelievable. I'm assuming that, what it really is, is an ex that got pissed off for some reason and knew that this would hurt the guy substantially. Anything benefitting or harming a school was likely a complete nonfactor in her decision-making and she wasn't put up to it by anyone else. Probably. Right?
  10. People follow silents because they represent hope and reasons for optimism about a class. If they didn't find them entertaining in some form, they wouldn't be following recruiting. I don't put much stock into them any more than the rest of us on this board, but they don't bother me. They don't bother any of the rest of you, either, or you wouldn't be here.
  11. I generally agree with each aspect of this post. The one nit to pick is that Texas can maintain a competitive advantage in NIL, should it choose to do so. Having more access to capital than most other programs is a competitive advantage for the few schools who find themselves in that situation.
  12. I have a very high opinion of Bobby, but this post is lame. I'm going to go over there and call it out if others haven't. This no more "big boy" of a cycle than the last few. It's been established that you're clearly wrong regarding what Twin Peaks was all about, unsurprisingly. What hasn't been addressed is why you think the demographics of this forum would suggest an interest in show for "teen girls" from the '90s?
  13. I figure everyone living in Austin on this board must have had the Moonshine CFS by now, by your post reads like it might have been a first. We stay near there for games in the fall and wind up going to Moonshine 2-3 times a year because of it. I think their CFS is one of the best you can find anywhere.
  14. I think Wisner will see his workload diminished over the course of the year as Baxter gets comfortable and maybe some of the other guys as well. I made my guess on his receptions based on his touches being front loaded out of necessity. That considered, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a late round pick when he comes out.
  15. Texas isn’t landing Atkinson. It’s a nice fantasy, but that shit ain’t happening.
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