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Beau Vine

Surly AL Cy Young Award

Surly AL Cy Young Award  

54 members have voted

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  1. 1. Vote for the Surly AL Cy Young Award, dummy

    • Shane Bieber
      0
    • Mike Clevenger deserves your 3rd-place vote!
    • Gerrit Cole
    • Charlie Morton
      0
    • Justin Verlander

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  • Poll closed on 11/02/2019 at 02:01 AM

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Cole, based on better numbers.  

Plus I'd rather see a first time winner.  I'm sure it would mean a hell of a lot to JV, especially being so close in prior years, but he's already a slam dunk HOFer. 

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Cole and Verlander are both lights out right now, but I have to go with Cole.  Slightly better numbers.

 

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Posted (edited)

Saying Cole has better numbers is a bit simplistic. Which numbers?

Cole has a slightly lower ERA, more Ks, better FIP and SIERRA, and leads in fWAR.

Verlander has fewer walks, a lower WHIP, and leads in bWAR and WARP.

The numbers are all about which metrics you value and most of them are so close that you’re splitting hairs.

Edited by formermav43

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2 hours ago, formermav43 said:

Saying Cole has better numbers is a bit simplistic. Which numbers?

Cole has a slightly lower ERA, more Ks, better FIP and SIERRA, and leads in fWAR.

Verlander has fewer walks, a lower WHIP, and leads in bWAR and WARP.

The numbers are all about which metrics you value and most of them are so close that you’re splitting hairs.

Verlander and Cole both have 7.9 WARP, and Cole has a lower DRA than Verlander. 

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1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Verlander and Cole both have 7.9 WARP, and Cole has a lower DRA than Verlander. 

Verlander’s is slightly better, actually: 7.89 to 7.85.

Not that that (or throwing in one more metric) changes my point.

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9 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Verlander’s is slightly better, actually: 7.89 to 7.85.

Not that that (or throwing in one more metric) changes my point.

On a per rate basis, Cole outclasses Verlander in pretty much all of the metrics (FIP, xFIP, SIERA, DRA, xwOBA), with the gap between the two varying depending upon how the metric treats batted balls.  What is Verlander's best argument - that he pitched 11 more innings and thus compares slightly better with Cole in some cumulative stats?  Cole has clearly been the better pitcher between the two this season.  

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1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

Verlander’s is slightly better, actually: 7.89 to 7.85.

Not that that (or throwing in one more metric) changes my point.

WAR has so much measurement error that it really shouldn't show any decimals at all, and quoting 2-decimal WAR totals should definitely be a federal offense.  

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

WAR has so much measurement error that it really shouldn't show any decimals at all, and quoting 2-decimal WAR totals should definitely be a federal offense.  

That was kinda my point. “Most of them are so close that you’re splitting hairs.”

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The numbers are basically too close to call, as evidenced by the debate above.  

Verlander's no-hitter was historic, not just because they all are, but because of the rare company his third no-hitter put him among.  That swings the CY his way, too.

And I hope Gerrit feels slighted like VY did after missing the Heisman and goes apeshit on everybody in the playoffs.

 

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