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Anastasis

"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

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Big move on Rick Scott, he's a lock now he was like +200 earlier. Desantis, also an underdog earlier, now looks to have won.

Edited by Thetexashammer

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yeah, thats a big no.  Moving around and picking off 5 and 6 cent sure things at this point. 

Edited by Anastasis

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Just now, Thetexashammer said:

There's money to be made still.

yeah, just trying to scrap for the nickles and dimes that they fucked me out of earlier when orders were not going through on the beto swings. 

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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Too complicated for me. I just dropped some money on the CO Pub to win. Seems the third party is doing well. 

In other news, I like money.

NV senate still looking like a chance to profit.

Edited by Thetexashammer

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Just now, Continental Op said:

I think I'm done after a nice 30% ROI on the evening.  

Wont somebody fill my Jim Jordan NO for speaker of the house!!!

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On 11/5/2018 at 12:34 PM, Anastasis said:

Figures a better place than the gambling board.  Let's see how much "easy" money with can identify.

I am on the following positions:

Who will control House after 2018?  Currently Dem YES @ 0.69 and GOP NO @ 0.65.  I say back the truck up on both.

 Balance of power in Congress after midterms.  I am playing NO on GOP HOUSE/GOP SENATE.  Currently trading @ 0.65.

 Will Manchin be re-elected? Currently YES @ 0.77.

And a stretch, but I think that the odds are worth it. Will Ted Cruz be elected? No @ 0.23.  Will look to exit if there is any bump based on early returns.

Trump impeachment in first terms. YES @ 0.41.  Think this bumps after the Dems take the house and/or when the Mueller report is issued.

 

Any other plays for today/tomorrow?  Obviously I am hosed if the Dem's don't take the House, but I don't see that happening.   

 

On 11/5/2018 at 1:04 PM, Anastasis said:

I've added Kevin McCarthy as NO for next speaker @ 0.76.

 

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

More easy money: Texas Senate margin of victory: NO on 12+% 0.90

And throwing a small bone at 0-2 and 2-4. 

So I am winding it all down too. 

Hit everything except for Beto. My strategy was correct.  There was a sizable bump when the dallas returns hit the wire, but the servers were shit and everything was delayed in fulfillment. Still, did very well on the night. Cheers. 

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Still some action on FL and AZ senate races. Big movement away from McSally towards Sinema. 

Edited by Mack Tripper

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More easy money:

Who will win 2020 presidential election:

Trump No @ .65

Bernie No @ 0.88

Trump impeached first term

Yes @ 0.47

Trump GOP nominee 2020

No @ 0.40

Will Warren run in 2020

Yes @ 0.76

Will Beto run

Yes @ 0.78

 

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Speaking of easy money sold my will Donald Jr get charged in 2018 today? Bought no @0.70 a few weeks back. Sold today @0.95. A little early but not worth holding for the last 0.05. 

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Warren running 2020 paid out on NYD. Beto market @ 0.89 now. 

 

Democrat wins presidency @ 0.62 if you have money to park for a while. Also Democrat controlled Senate @ 0.45. 

I think that Sander to run NO @ 0.25 is worth a flier. 

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16 hours ago, Mack Tripper said:

Agree that no for Sanders is a good bet.

It’s an attractive bet.

However, Sanders is going to run IMO.  He doesn’t do all those media appearances for nothing and he’s polling between Biden and Beto in Iowa. 

Plus he has a social media army. 

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I’m steering clear of that one for the moment. All that he has to do to trigger the outcome is form an exploratory committee. 

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National address edition:

Mentions "national emergency" YES @ 0.59

Mentions "Schumer shutdown" NO @ 0.87

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"National emergency" market floating down.  I don't think that he will declare a national emergency, but think that there is value is something like "I have total authority to declare this a national emergency".  I don't think that the teleprompter will dial it up, but a bet on going off script feels ok. 

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Sold rest of beto @ 91. "Ivanka" was easy money during cohen testimony.

Thinking about taking a long shot on Beto NO @ .10 on rumors of VP deal with Biden. 

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On 1/8/2019 at 8:53 PM, scottsins said:

I recently had a bunch of buy orders accepted for $.60, on “Trump will be GOP nominee in 2020”.

I appear to be on the wrong side of this bet. 

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Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?

 Yang NO @ 0.87 is easy money
I also like Biden NO @ 0.77
Yt

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Took Elizabeth Warren to win Iowa Caucus. Will pay a little over 4-1. I think progressive change will win out over let’s go back to Obama. Warren has done good job co-opting Bernie policies and I think there’s an undercurrent of Dems wanting another woman to face Trump. I think Kamala wins the whole thing, but in white Iowa, it’s Warren. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses

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I’ll probably add a second pick too. Either of my top 2 win and I’ll make money. 

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My Democratic Presidential Nominee field feels pretty good:

Warren Yes in at 0.20 (up .03 at the moment).  Was looking at it hard when it was 0.07 and was like why isn't this much higher. Missed that.

Joe NO @ .79

Bernie NO @ .86

Yang NO @ .87

Butti YES @ .14 (need an exit point for this one quickly)

Julian Castro YES @ 0.04 (just looking for a pump to 6 or 8 after another debate performance, otherwise will exit)

I sold Kamala that I bought at .11 at .22 to roll into mueller mentions, hit "clinton" whiffed bigly on "impeach". 

I still got some money on Jr charges by end of the year, and trump impeach in first term, but those are looking like dead money at this point.

 

Edited by Anastasis

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3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

My Democratic Presidential Nominee field feels pretty good:

Warren Yes in at 0.20 (up .03 at the moment).

I don't gamble, save maybe a little blackjack if I'm at a casino.  I know nothing about how odds work.

Is your "Warren Yes" play something you can cash out, like a stock trade?  Can you sell that for $0.23 (minus the rake)?

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32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't gamble, save maybe a little blackjack if I'm at a casino.  I know nothing about how odds work.

 Is your "Warren Yes" play something you can cash out, like a stock trade?  Can you sell that for $0.23 (minus the rake)?

The pricing is not like traditional sports book betting. In any given market you can buy YES or NO shares.  There is a buy/sell spread on both sides. If the market resolves in your favor, it pays out $1 per share. You can buy and sell as the market moves.  Buy Kamala 3000 YES shares @ 0.11 for $330, you sell @ 0.22 and you get 660 - 10% fee on profit. If you hold all the way to resolution of the market (DNC convention) and she were to win the nomination you get paid $1 per share so $3000. Markets with multiple outcomes such as Dem nominee get more complex and they do some weird things with the math if you take up multiple positions.  Binary markets are more straightforward. Trump impeached by 12/31/19 YES, there's a .16 ask for 2700 shares at the moment.  That costs $432 and pays $2700 if impeachment by 12/31. Flip side you could buy ~2k shares of NO in that market for 0.87.  So $1740 would pay $2000 on News Years Day if no impeachment. 

 

Degenerate shit really. 

Edited by Anastasis

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It pays out $1 per share total or $1 above your initial bet?  I assume the former?  (i.e., a "sure thing" would price at $0.99 to return $1?)

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mpu


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