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AUS-97HORN

2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

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Generic decision discussion.

You hold QsTs on a Ks9h2s flop and open $35 into a $75 pot, leaving $180 behind. Guy ($300) who obviously has 2 pair or set makes it $100. Folds to you so heads up.

You start w 12 outs (9 spades, 3 J) and maybe take away 2 that could fill him up. 10 outs, ~40% if you see two streets.

You could:
-Jam. $180 to win $470 (need 38%, so +ev)
-call and reevaluate. $65 into $275 (need to hit 24%, but only getting odds for 20%, so -ev). If I don’t improve, I’m likely facing a jam so $115 to win $470 (so again need 24% but now just 10% to hit, very -ev) which I can’t call.

Is it clear, then, that you must always jam flop?

Looking at this as a generic “I KNOW I’m behind but also am CERTAIN to be +ev if I jam flop, but become -ev if I delay w option of folding.”

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If you aren't jamming then you may not realize all of your equity. If you just call and a scare card comes off you may not get the rest of opponent's stack. 

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Right. Maybe saving w a call, but may not get any more of his money so it was purely a -ev play on flop

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1 hour ago, Lurch said:

Generic decision discussion.

You hold QsTs on a Ks9h2s flop and open $35 into a $75 pot, leaving $180 behind. Guy ($300) who obviously has 2 pair or set makes it $100. Folds to you so heads up.

You start w 12 outs (9 spades, 3 J) and maybe take away 2 that could fill him up. 10 outs, ~40% if you see two streets.

You could:
-Jam. $180 to win $470 (need 38%, so +ev)
-call and reevaluate. $65 into $275 (need to hit 24%, but only getting odds for 20%, so -ev). If I don’t improve, I’m likely facing a jam so $115 to win $470 (so again need 24% but now just 10% to hit, very -ev) which I can’t call.

Is it clear, then, that you must always jam flop?

Looking at this as a generic “I KNOW I’m behind but also am CERTAIN to be +ev if I jam flop, but become -ev if I delay w option of folding.”

You could also be up against a spade draw with a 9 (9J, 98, 97) and possibly someone overplaying a nut flush draw.  No guarantee it is set or two pair.  

Regardless, I think one key on these combo draw hand jams is making sure you factor in the nut flush draw possibilities into the equation.  It may not change much as you would still have 9 outs if it is just Asxs, but could be royally screwed if you are up against A9s.

 

 

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For the sake of this generic discussion let’s stick w him having 2pr or set. Perhaps he showed them

 

You’re right, of course, but I’m focused on the strategy when the odds are fully known. You’re really speaking to the process of accurately determine odds first.

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$2/2. You have $102 and limp UTG w AsAc (go with me on this one). All fold to blinds who check.

Ts5d4d. SB open shoves his last $100. BB folds. SB flips over his 6d3d. Preflop action covers rake, so pure 1:1 on call.

Call/fold?

What if you had 9s9c instead?

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call if I don't have to show if/when I lose. muck if I have to show immediately. gotta preserve that trap equity for later. 

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Bingo. So AA/99 hands are folds even though we’re ahead on flop, while QsTs hand we’re behind on flop and should jam.

It really is a great game

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5 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

Can someone translate this for me? Is the entry the actual money you pay and the "buy-in" is starting chips? or the other way around?

https://www.choctawcasinos.com/uploads/poker/wsop/october.pdf

 

The actual money you pay is both the buy in and the entry.  The buy in goes to the prize pool and the entry goes to the Casino.  Typical starting chip amounts in these kind of events is anywhere from 10,000 to 30,000. 

click on the blue link for each event and it will show you the starting amount of chips and the blind structure.

 

Edited by Zwylde

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1 minute ago, Zwylde said:

The actual money you pay is both the buy in and the entry.  The buy in goes to the prize pool and the entry goes to the Casino.  Typical starting chip amounts in these kind of events is anywhere from 10,000 to 30,000. 

Ahhh, gotta pay the Chief.

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6 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

Can someone translate this for me? Is the entry the actual money you pay and the "buy-in" is starting chips? or the other way around?

https://www.choctawcasinos.com/uploads/poker/wsop/october.pdf

 

What Zwylde said. Click on any of the events to get a structure sheet that will show you the starting chips, blind levels, etc., for a given event. 

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Reminder: never play a $50+$20. Jesus


Low stakes tourneys are entertainment expense with possibility of money at the end. Have certainly spent $20 on worse shit than a tourny against the truly clueless lol.

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been quiet for a while because Ive been getting murdered.  took a week break, got murdered, took another week break, got murdered.   debated saying fuck poker forever.  biggest hit was me re-raising on the button to $30 with AhJh, getting 5 callers, flop comes Kc,Qc,2x-   it checks around.   

Turn comes Tx.    UTG bets $50, folds to CO who calls,   I make it $150, UTG folds and shows the guys behind him he folded the 9 high flush draw.    Co shoves, I snap obvi, flip over the nuts and hes cussing because hr thought I had AK until the 2c hits the fucking river and he shows Doyle for the 4 outer to take the fucker down.  all I can do is just say thats poker.  

finally play today and get a full double up early with AK when I raise to $15, get 6 callers, K high flop, I bet $50, 2 callers,   K turn,  I bet $80, 1 caller,   river X, I shove and get snap called. 

also managed to avoid getting scooped on a massive bomb pot when I was the button. 

Top board is Jd-Td-8d,  bottom board is 6c-6s-T.  2nd to act bets $50, MP makes it $150, and CO to my right shoves for $250. 

I look down at AA.    and I fold,  showing SB who I play with a lot, the fold,  hes incredulous.    BB calls the $250, MP repops to $350 all in.   BB calls.  they flop over....  9x7d for the BB,  6d-9d for MP and KK for the cutoff.   everyone else misses and MP scoops the whole thing.    not sure how I avoided that so easily with AA on a bomb pot, but figured someone had a 6, and at best someone else had something like 9d-X, which at best means I probably only can win 1 board half the time.   turned out to be a good fold.  whole table thought I was full of it until SB verified I mucked AA. 

in for $290 total on buyins and time, out for $665, a real win which helps offset the last 2 big losses puts me at neg $300 or so. 

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8 hours ago, Dr Fear said:

Getting back into poker.  Playing tourneys at my local country club and have won the last 2 out of 3 with small fields and weak competition but I was thinking about trying some casino tournaments and looking at this last night.  Looks like the next event is at the beginning of January.  Any advise on these for first timers?  Any of you play in these regularly. 

I am way more comfortable with tournament play than cash games. 

Also do the local poker clubs usually have good tourney's and are they worth it? 

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yeah, they all have tournaments, but they tend to not be the most economically profitable. Usually they have a flat fee instead of hourly charge, but also have monthly/daily charge. Check the websites for the tournament schedule.

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Playing in my monthly tournament on Saturday night.  Most players are fairly solid, but there are a couple donkeys in there.  Sitting in the BB and I look down to see 2 Aces.  MP raises to 1200 (blinds were 300/600), button calls and I re-raise to 3200.  MP folds and button calls.  Flop is Q 10 10.  I put in enough to put button all in (around 5-6k).  He snap calls and flips over A 10 offsuit.  Motherfucker.  I hate this fucking game sometimes.  Who calls a raise and a re-raise with that hand?  I had been playing pretty tight up to that point.  MP says after the hand that he folded KK.

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16 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Did you want him to call or not? You asked he pay 2k to win 9k.

I wanted the call, I'm just pissed that I was 92% to win preflop and lost.  That hand put me on a short stack and I never recovered.

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16 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Also... WTF MP ?!?!?!?

Yeah, he's not the best player, but I did have a tight table image at the time.  Button did not notice.

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I wanted the call, I'm just pissed that I was 92% to win preflop and lost.  That hand put me on a short stack and I never recovered.


“Poker: Because 8% happens”

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Yeah, he's not the best player, but I did have a tight table image at the time.  Button did not notice.


You could show me your aces and I’m calling 2k there

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MP is either a liar or you should relentlessly bluff him and also help him tie his shoes. I don’t think the AT play was bad. Your raise size was tiny esp being out of position.

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MP is either a liar or you should relentlessly bluff him and also help him tie his shoes. I don’t think the AT play was bad. Your raise size was tiny esp being out of position.
That's one thing i struggle with is bet sizing. What should i have bet there?

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You want calls so it can’t be too much. For that purpose, it was fine. I’m probably going 4k. They should call 2800 to win 12k

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You want calls so it can’t be too much. For that purpose, it was fine. I’m probably going 4k. They should call 2800 to win 12k


But you can’t vary your raise size based on your hand, esp in a “regular group” tourney. We need to also be able to squeeze here sometimes IMO.

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How deep are y’all? I know button started wjth 9k or so what about you and MP?
I started with 20k or so. That is also starting stack. MP was maybe 7k.

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So MP says he raise-folded KK with 11 big blinds??? Lol gtfo. Were y’all on the bubble and mincash is a million dollars?

With both players so short I actually don’t like a 3bet small. Depending on villains and my image I would either just jam or flat and check-jam 95% of flops. We are so shallow we aren’t folding flops and we turn our hand faceup when we 3b small this shallow.

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played a 4 hour session yest  

was a card rack that manged to still lose money. 

early on called a UTG $15 raise with AsTx, as the BB when there were 4 callers. flop was low spade, low spade, 8x. it checks around. turn is Ks,   I check, UTG makes it $20, 3 callers including me.    Qs on river, I check,  last to act goes all in ($56)with Js, I call, everyone folds.   

called another $10 raise by BB with 3 callers with T8. flop comes 6-4-3, I check, BB bets $10, 2 callers and I call just to float 1 card.  comes a full rainbow 7. 

BB bets out $20 and everyone calls.  Ive got a double gutter, so fuck it.   river is the 9.    I  lead for $40..... no one fucking calls.   That bet size shouldnt have scared everyone off unless the whole world had nothing. 

I have 89 on the button, call a UTG $10 raise with 3 others, comes 5-6d-7d. checks to me, I bet $15... everyone folds. 

The same guy I felted with the nut flush only has $15 left and shoves, gets 3 callers, including me as UTG with 2-2.     2 on the flop, It checks around. 9 on the turn, I bet $15, only 1 caller.  river is another 9.    I bet $20..... and  A9 just smooth calls. 

As BB I call a $15 MP bet with AJ,   flop is 5-7-5. I lead out for $15. original raiser calls, all else fold. Turn is J. 

I check call $20.  river is an A.   I leadout for $30,  and A7 folds faceup. 

and the craziest one,  I get AA early position. Make it $15, get only 1 caller.  flop is As-7s-X.  I bet $15, he calls.  turn is a 7.  I check, hoping he has a 7.... he checks behind. 

river is the case A.  fuck.    I bet out $25  he thinks a while, and folds.    sigh. 

all those decent wins and i lose  $150 on a bomb pot  where the top board is TTT, and bottom board is J-J-9. 

I am early position with QQ,  first to acts bets $25,  I call to see whats going on. For some reason, MP shoves, it folds around to me. so I know this guy doesnt have both boards.  I call and he shows KT.... we all know what the bottom turn card was right.... yeah the 3 outer K.  and the river throws my 2 outer up on the top fking board.    Pay him off. 

the big killer was me having QQ again. Im UTG, I limp because 4 guys to my left normally raise... nope. 5 callers to a KQT rainbow flop.   SB bets $10, I call, so do 3 others.  I only called here because I sure as hell am not blowing almost any J off the hand, and obviously no one is putting me on a set of queens.  turn is relative low brick but putting a backdoor flush draw out.   

SB bets $21.   I raise to $60.  folds to SB who takes a really long time, and makes it $165.     He is easily capable of doing this with a combo J flush draw, Top 2, and especially if he turned a set. And the chances of AJ are nil, absolutely nil, this player raises any ace pre-flop every fucking time he's dealt one.    

I take a bit and decide I am going to make him pay for the draw and  shove... he snaps and rolls over J9 of course.   no 10 outer for me.   -$325 on that hand.   I do make back a lot of it.   finish the session down $80. 

Edited by AUS-97HORN

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5 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

So MP says he raise-folded KK with 11 big blinds??? Lol gtfo. Were y’all on the bubble and mincash is a million dollars?

With both players so short I actually don’t like a 3bet small. Depending on villains and my image I would either just jam or flat and check-jam 95% of flops. We are so shallow we aren’t folding flops and we turn our hand faceup when we 3b small this shallow.

Agree here 100%.  You are also going to want to squeeze here on occasion so better to do so with the top of your range as well at times.  I jam here and fully expect middle position to pay me off after the percentage of his stack he's already put in the pot..

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On 11/6/2019 at 3:47 PM, Lurch said:

Bingo. So AA/99 hands are folds even though we’re ahead on flop, while QsTs hand we’re behind on flop and should jam.

It really is a great game

I never really understood the idea of saying that you are "ahead" in a hand when someone else has a higher percent chance to win the hand.

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So true, especially in Big O.

What I really love is when someone says "I had blockers". They have AA222 on a 345 board and bitch when someone else has A267x and gets 3/4 the pot. 

You don't see A2 on the board, there's a chance it's in someone's hand and you probably should slow down if someone re-pots after you pot it.

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19 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

played a 4 hour session yest  

was a card rack that manged to still lose money. 

early on called a UTG $15 raise with AsTx, as the BB when there were 4 callers. flop was low spade, low spade, 8x. it checks around. turn is Ks,   I check, UTG makes it $20, 3 callers including me.    Qs on river, I check,  last to act goes all in ($56)with Js, I call, everyone folds.   

called another $10 raise by BB with 3 callers with T8. flop comes 6-4-3, I check, BB bets $10, 2 callers and I call just to float 1 card.  comes a full rainbow 7. 

BB bets out $20 and everyone calls.  Ive got a double gutter, so fuck it.   river is the 9.    I  lead for $40..... no one fucking calls.   That bet size shouldnt have scared everyone off unless the whole world had nothing. 

I have 89 on the button, call a UTG $10 raise with 3 others, comes 5-6d-7d. checks to me, I bet $15... everyone folds. 

The same guy I felted with the nut flush only has $15 left and shoves, gets 3 callers, including me as UTG with 2-2.     2 on the flop, It checks around. 9 on the turn, I bet $15, only 1 caller.  river is another 9.    I bet $20..... and  A9 just smooth calls. 

As BB I call a $15 MP bet with AJ,   flop is 5-7-5. I lead out for $15. original raiser calls, all else fold. Turn is J. 

I check call $20.  river is an A.   I leadout for $30,  and A7 folds faceup. 

and the craziest one,  I get AA early position. Make it $15, get only 1 caller.  flop is As-7s-X.  I bet $15, he calls.  turn is a 7.  I check, hoping he has a 7.... he checks behind. 

river is the case A.  fuck.    I bet out $25  he thinks a while, and folds.    sigh. 

all those decent wins and i lose  $150 on a bomb pot  where the top board is TTT, and bottom board is J-J-9. 

I am early position with QQ,  first to acts bets $25,  I call to see whats going on. For some reason, MP shoves, it folds around to me. so I know this guy doesnt have both boards.  I call and he shows KT.... we all know what the bottom turn card was right.... yeah the 3 outer K.  and the river throws my 2 outer up on the top fking board.    Pay him off. 

the big killer was me having QQ again. Im UTG, I limp because 4 guys to my left normally raise... nope. 5 callers to a KQT rainbow flop.   SB bets $10, I call, so do 3 others.  I only called here because I sure as hell am not blowing almost any J off the hand, and obviously no one is putting me on a set of queens.  turn is relative low brick but putting a backdoor flush draw out.   

SB bets $21.   I raise to $60.  folds to SB who takes a really long time, and makes it $165.     He is easily capable of doing this with a combo J flush draw, Top 2, and especially if he turned a set. And the chances of AJ are nil, absolutely nil, this player raises any ace pre-flop every fucking time he's dealt one.    

I take a bit and decide I am going to make him pay for the draw and  shove... he snaps and rolls over J9 of course.   no 10 outer for me.   -$325 on that hand.   I do make back a lot of it.   finish the session down $80. 

Did you play early afternoon on Sunday?

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I had 3 interesting hands the other night against the same villian.

1/3 $300. I'd only been there a few minutes and didn't know anyone at the table. I'm in MP and have 22. Folds to me and I make it $12. Button calls everyone else folds. Flop is rainbow AJ4. I bet $25, he calls. Turn 8. I debate checking but decided to fire another bet to maybe get him to fold a weak ace or jack. So I bet $80. He calls right away. River is a 2. I bet the rest of my stack. He calls. I announce I have a set and when I flip my deuces he mucks and throws a minor fit. I'm guessing he had 2 pair.

Fast forward an hour. I'm up to $700 and the same guy is back up to $500ish. I have 8s9s and am out of position. Flop 234 rainbow. I bet about half the pot, he calls, 2 others fold. Turn A. I bet half the pot again and he calls. River 5. So there is a 5 high straight on the board. I check and he bets all in. It was a really good bet on his part. After much deliberation I called. I decided he made a good read that I had given up on the hand and had nothing to lose by trying to bet me out of the hand. He had J 10 so we split.  

A bit later I'm QdJd on the button. I have about $650, villian has similar. MP raises to $15. I 3bet to $45 to hopefully isolate. Same guy as the other 2 hands calls along with the original raiser. Flop Qc10d9d. That's right, top pair, open ended straight flush draw. Villian checks, other guy checks, I bet $100. Villian calls, other guy folds. Turn 2c. He check calls my $200 bet. River 3s. He bets all in and has me barely covered. What do you do?

Spoiler

I felt there was a chance he had a busted straight or flush draw. But more than likely he'd flopped the straight or maybe had 2 pair. I ended up calling. He had QQ. Just totally didn't see that coming. I kind of assumed I was beat, but just didn't expect that. 

 

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Seems like if he had a made hand he’d have to have taken control on the turn at the latest. Since the river is a blank, we should be ahead with our top pair

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Checked spoiler.

I can understand him just check calling flop in hopes other guy stays in, but on turn he really should have check raised you all-in. You easily could have been the one drawing straight and or flush.

He got paid, but misplayed imo

Seems like your 22 play was a leak. I like the open, but if you only get a caller behind I think you need to tap the brakes. Any semi competent player is calling most cbets either with made hands or strong draws on that flop, so a cbet bluff is not going to work enough to be +ev. Then double barreling it?!? Good catch, though!

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i actually don't hate barrelling 22 there. I think it's very hard for 33-99 to call flop, and he often will fold gutshots. Turn he folds most jacks, all gutshots, all other pairs. It's funny b/c I feel like normally you wanna barrel more than I do. :)

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