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Bozo_Casanova

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Everything posted by Bozo_Casanova

  1. When you lose Richard Hanania
  2. What about that one account Ted Cruz likes with Cory Chase?* Did you follow that or maybe pay for BLACKED?** *to be clear, I don’t know who that is ** Also don’t know what that is
  3. Do tell! A couple things: 1) if I was going to buy either I would buy both. How does it work to own both Units of a condo regime if one is a rental or STR? The lot is not subdivided. 2) In this environment, how hard of a bargain could I drive if I was willing to take down both? 3) we’d be looking at an October close. What does the crystal ball say I looking at as of right now with a 20% down payment? Could I homestead both? Would they have separate notes?
  4. Getting back to mortgages, my wife found a 1.2mm 3/2 spec house in east Austin she really likes, replete with a great view, the gentrification font on the numbers, and condo regime between the front and back units (also for sale, $775). It also has a sort of mini pool. The listing agent (who also wants to list my house) keeps checking out my LinkedIn profile. on a scale of 1-10 how fucked am I?
  5. No. I did that 20 years ago. You chose to believe otherwise. Setting that aside, was I wrong about what was going to happen (the end of surplus, explosion of deficits)? Oh my god we went over this 20 years ago. Stimulus stimulates. Nobody disputes that. The question is whether the stimulus pays for itself, which it didn’t, and 2017 didn’t either. Just because revenue increased doesn’t mean that it did, and if you have a problem with that, take it up with the CBO. That’s not even a matter of debate outside of politics. You keep banging on revenue going up because you’ve been taken in by bullshit artists. If that was an answer we wouldn’t be here. 2017 and this bill are a wealth transfer from your kids to me. Thank them, please.
  6. Oh, their definition. Got it. I don’t think that’s a smart goal but either way I agree it seems highly unlikely. I mean it’s probable that imports will fall for multiple reasons, but it’s also probable that the dollar will weaken and more importantly demand for the dollar will weaken, which means our debt is more expensive to service and the use of the dollar as a reserve weakens and so on. I don’t see how you can even achieve the stated goal without inflation, because a weaker dollar relative to the cost of imports *is* inflation, in trade terms.
  7. See my post above re discretionary spending. There is only one way out - lowering entitlement and military spending pretty substantially, and we are very possibly past the event horizon anyway. I’ve recommended Ray Dalio’s Big Debt Crises here when it came out and it seems especially timely now. But you can’t possibly pretend that the parties aren’t different and that one party hasn’t actively made the situation massively worse, and it wasn’t the Democrats. (And I am not a Democrat)
  8. False. In process right now. Dude. This is not how the debt works. Remember when I told you that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts could not pay for themselves and would add to the debt and you argued with me about it? Remember when I said the same thing in 2017 (I don’t remember you arguing about that one)? The CBO estimate of the current house bill is that it will add about $3.8T by 2034 and $5.1T if the temporary stuff (no tax on OT/Tips is set to expire in 2029 so they can make it an issue in the 2028 election). * That’s false. They are extending the 2017 and adding new ones ** I have no idea what you mean and I suspect you don’t either. It’s 2025 and tips are accounted for and taxed as income. Also false, at least based on the bill in progress and virtually all public statements of objective. Of course we don’t know what will ultimately wind up on the president’s desk because it will be negotiated behind closed doors and signed without full analysis, but it will almost certainly be more inflationary and cover less of the proposed spending. Not that we have a discretionary spending problem, though- you could cut every dollar of discretionary spending and we wouldn’t have a balanced budget, thanks to the 2001, 2003, and 2017 tax cuts. But sure, tell me more about inflation … Is there a thesis here? Tariffs are a tax on consumption and they function by raising producer costs for supply chains with imported inputs and prices for finished imports. That’s not what they cause. It’s what they are. Wulaw, I’m sorry but you’re better than this. I have no idea what an “economic figure” is, but if you are talking about the consensus of mainstream economic thinking over the last 25 years (when you voted to take us out of budget surplus), their record is pretty good. What does “work” mean in this context?
  9. Considering your support for the wife beater’s right to own and carry firearms, I don’t doubt your sincerity on this.
  10. I have no idea what set this off, but I agree with all of these above.
  11. Yet another example of what lefties don’t see because they don’t make a point to understand Texas Republicans: Even the politically active R’s are sick of this shit and are begging Democrats to be competitive and giving strategic pointers. “Their insanity may turn Texas blue after all. All Democrats have to do is use Brian Harrison’s rhetoric against the R’s and talk about what people really want…property tax relief, public safety & safe schools & roads. And get rid of vouchers.”
  12. Wordle 1,434 4/6 ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ 🟩⬜⬜🟩🟩 🟩⬜⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  13. By the time Democrats regain control won’t have the choice.
  14. The funny thing is that you aren’t wrong. It’s not conscious, but they’ve institutionalized the process of losing. It’s what they are organized to do, like the Washington Generals.
  15. If the Democrats can’t win with this setup, they are fundamentally broken and we need a different opposition party.
  16. Wordle 1,433 4/6 ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜🟩⬜ 🟨🟩⬜🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  17. That’s true, and if you were designing an incentive strategy to encourage other nations to dedollarize the global trade economy, you would unilaterally impose a broad based tariff regime that reduces imports and enlarge the deficit and weaken the dollar via domestic tax stimulus. If only!
  18. There was Jimmy and Tommy and me, Anthony Stabile, Frankie Carbone. And then there was Mo Black’s brother Fat Andy and his guys Frankie the Wop and Freddy No-Nose. And then there was Pete the Killer, who was Sally Balls brother. Then you had Nicky Eyes and Mikey Franzese and Jimmy Two-Times, who got that nickname because said everything twice, like “I’m gonna go get the papers, get the papers.” For us to live any other way was nuts. Uh, to us, those goody-good people who worked shitty jobs for bum paychecks and took the subway to work every day, and worried about their bills, were dead. I mean they were suckers. They had no balls. If we wanted something we just took it. If anyone complained twice they got hit so bad, believe me, they never complained again.
  19. Wordle 1,432 5/6 🟩🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟩⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟩⬜⬜🟨⬜ 🟩⬜⬜🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  20. Fair enough, but it seemed like she was trying to maneuver him over a trap door. The language says “an audit or other investigation.” In order to grant or revoke status, there would have to be determination made by the IRS, an administrative process with multiple opportunities for appeal. If you made a determination you gathered and found facts, and if you gathered and found facts, that’s an investigation. Otherwise you have an arbitrary and capricious determination, which is invalid and subject to reversal.
  21. There’s a lot to unpack here but the simplest version is that that there is a huge difference between an inflationary spike caused by a demand flood+supply shock vs a secular cost increase that doesn’t change the demand signal. In the first situation (2022) a market leader will try float slightly behind the pack- stay a price leader but increase prices at the same rate as everyone else because there’s more buying power coming at you. In the second situation (2025) they deploy dry powder to consolidate and take share from less well capitalized or efficient competitors. Of course an announcement like this pleases Trump and HD’s customers alike. But it’s also the right thing to do for the business if they can afford to do it without cutting into muscle.
  22. As I’ve said repeatedly on this board- dominant players consolidate market share by leaving prices flat or even lowering them curing periods of secular cost increases if they are able. Gross Margin is a war chest, not a strategic objective.
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