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Chopper

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Chopper

  1. no scatter plots... so no Chilis?
  2. You can argue abortion is on the ballot in Iowa so it's special. But it's also on the ballot in Florida. And women in other states where it's not visibly on the ballot know what's up.
  3. State voting patterns have really been very stable relative to each other. The correlation between the 2016 and 2020 elections by state was 0.97. If Kamala does particularly well in Iowa, or in any other state, she's doing well everywhere.
  4. If you had a prop bet on Jane Goodall pusblishing an anti-Trump op-ed today without once ever mentioning his name, congrats you're now likely a trillionaire! Jane Goodall has spent nearly 65 years studying the social and family interactions of wild chimpanzees. She is the founder of the Jane Goodall Institute and a United Nations messenger of peace. Washington Post https://archive.ph/xmXuD conclusion
  5. hopium from a poll (not pole) worker
  6. Found this article just in time for election day
  7. Google trends - people doing last minute homework https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-suspected-of-plotting-to-send-incendiary-devices-on-us-bound-planes/ar-AA1tucFR
  8. Yes she only polls in Iowa so it seems she's built up quite a great data set to draw from. She apparently doesn't even hire out for polls in other states. Just sticks to Iowa.
  9. Only because I want it to be, my opinion is that the person rented it and had fun for a day. Gonna be a long day. siap - thought I'd deleted this but it popped back in my post.
  10. Report from a H/W canvasser in PA who says he's knocked on more than 300 doors over the past few weeks:
  11. Yeah pretty much. I wish I knew if there's going to be a ton of exit pollsters in GA and PA though. With voting by mail, exit polls don't mean as much as they used to for sure. But tomorrow in those two states there could be a ton of worthwhile info.
  12. A threat text from the IN governor. Nothing vague about it.
  13. Exit poll info will get whispered about beginning around 3pm. There's going to be a lot of fake shit too so carefully vet your sources. How far into the real world the real data makes it is an unknown. It's not declarative but it's used among the news networks for planning purposes.
  14. Correct. But it those 2 categories of voters are at the highest level of interest of voting, meaning they absolutely intend to vote, and it can't possibly be a "part of the story" if Trump wins tomorrow (edit - at least not in the way that fuck is trying to both sides things).
  15. What's better, the smash burger or the chicken ranch sandwich? I criticized a post by Wasserman a few days ago and someone came to his defense. I remember him providing reliable and interesting information 4 years ago (could've been 8 years ago because in 2020 I turned to Bitecofer for info) but I swear the dude's brain is mush or he's outright trying to spin bullshit. To compare Black and Latin voters and indicate their voting interest is lagging in comparison to 2020 is misleading af. In 2020 only 63% of Blacks and 54% of Latinos voted, so their voting interest is actually higher this year, and in the case of Black voters it's 20% higher. Also in 2020 only 50% of 18 to 34s voted, so umm 52 > 50.
  16. How many beers are in a fucking 6 pack, JV Vance?
  17. Squirrel story in 2 posts for anyone still wondering.
  18. The big takeaway is this year's NYT poll has no relation to the reality we've seen of an early voting surge of women. We don't know about how they model their "Likely Voters," but they are obviously looking backward at the overall gender profile of who voted in 2020, and then shaping their current polling results to fit a similar overall profile.
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