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Chopper

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Chopper

  1. hopium from a poll (not pole) worker
  2. Found this article just in time for election day
  3. Google trends - people doing last minute homework https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-suspected-of-plotting-to-send-incendiary-devices-on-us-bound-planes/ar-AA1tucFR
  4. Yes she only polls in Iowa so it seems she's built up quite a great data set to draw from. She apparently doesn't even hire out for polls in other states. Just sticks to Iowa.
  5. Only because I want it to be, my opinion is that the person rented it and had fun for a day. Gonna be a long day. siap - thought I'd deleted this but it popped back in my post.
  6. Report from a H/W canvasser in PA who says he's knocked on more than 300 doors over the past few weeks:
  7. Yeah pretty much. I wish I knew if there's going to be a ton of exit pollsters in GA and PA though. With voting by mail, exit polls don't mean as much as they used to for sure. But tomorrow in those two states there could be a ton of worthwhile info.
  8. A threat text from the IN governor. Nothing vague about it.
  9. Exit poll info will get whispered about beginning around 3pm. There's going to be a lot of fake shit too so carefully vet your sources. How far into the real world the real data makes it is an unknown. It's not declarative but it's used among the news networks for planning purposes.
  10. Correct. But it those 2 categories of voters are at the highest level of interest of voting, meaning they absolutely intend to vote, and it can't possibly be a "part of the story" if Trump wins tomorrow (edit - at least not in the way that fuck is trying to both sides things).
  11. What's better, the smash burger or the chicken ranch sandwich? I criticized a post by Wasserman a few days ago and someone came to his defense. I remember him providing reliable and interesting information 4 years ago (could've been 8 years ago because in 2020 I turned to Bitecofer for info) but I swear the dude's brain is mush or he's outright trying to spin bullshit. To compare Black and Latin voters and indicate their voting interest is lagging in comparison to 2020 is misleading af. In 2020 only 63% of Blacks and 54% of Latinos voted, so their voting interest is actually higher this year, and in the case of Black voters it's 20% higher. Also in 2020 only 50% of 18 to 34s voted, so umm 52 > 50.
  12. How many beers are in a fucking 6 pack, JV Vance?
  13. Squirrel story in 2 posts for anyone still wondering.
  14. The big takeaway is this year's NYT poll has no relation to the reality we've seen of an early voting surge of women. We don't know about how they model their "Likely Voters," but they are obviously looking backward at the overall gender profile of who voted in 2020, and then shaping their current polling results to fit a similar overall profile.
  15. Similar keeps happening to me. I click to get the next page and it takes me back a page or 2. I figured it was my browser.
  16. Comparing gender of NYT's "likely voters" from the crosstabs of their most recent (and final) poll compared to the 2020 exit poll. Pink = women, blue = men. You can draw your own conclusions. https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/11/03/nyts-sample-versus-early-vote/
  17. Oh no, it's another (prominent?) republikkkan confused about sexuality and the English language.
  18. I'm trying to figure out a smooth way to shoehorn in that yesterday I learned that there's a Vaglick Drive near Beaumont but my aimless attempts to shoehorn jokes have previously failed, so I'll just state the fact.
  19. "We rate pollsters based on how often they poll" is a warning to turn the other direction -- one of many 538 inadvertently provides -- and you ignore it at your peril.
  20. So your logic is that knowing what a nazi is makes me a nazi. Good one.
  21. This is so true. He had fame and faux credibility from an NBC reality tv show and was well-positioned to take advantage. https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/dumbest-republicans-ever
  22. If someone sees the reasoning for Harris' crisscrossing travel schedule today, please post it.
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