Ehh if it didn't matter, Trump wouldn't be melting down, wouldn't have been pressuring Republicans, wouldn't publicly announce that he wants Republicans that want the files released to lose their primaries, complete with calling them RINOs/traitors.
I've got one of the pizzagate/Qanon nutsos in my family (she had last voted for Obama in 2008 before Trump in 2016). She bailed on Trump over a few things and didn't vote in 2024, but "Epstein didn't kill himself" was a part of the equation (he didn't fulfill the fantasies Q promised them). Earlier this year with Trump pretending there were no files, that sealed the deal, although she didn't even bother voting last November. She helps run one of the larger Qanon conspiracy sites (although she does not like the term "Qanon" because it's not "accurate" and is touchy about it) and I keep tabs on a it a bit out of morbid curiosity, and they are not pleased with everything happened. Some of them really believed Trump would release the files.
But let's say only 10-20% really care about the Epstein files, Maxwell being pardoned, etc. After the elections earlier this month, can Trumpland afford those people staying home next year? And it's easy to research these types in your family in some states, to see what their voting patterns were prior to Trump. I can see how several of my relatives voted in Texas (or at least get an idea), as well as Oklahoma. If they were voting sporadically prior to Trump, and then he pulls this shit, and he's not on the ballot next year, it's not a good look for Republicans.