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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. It is like Kennedy vs. Nixon, but after we knew the real Nixon.
  2. And the vast majority of independents including the 3% who voted for Johnson in 2016. O'Rourke's floor is 47% based on the 2016 presidential vote before factoring in that Beto is far more likable than Hillary and Cruz won't have the support Trump had in 2016.
  3. It seems to me that there comes a time when government regulation or even manufacturing by or under government supervision becomes necessary, particularly if we move to a single payer system.
  4. The substance of the debate won't matter. Cruz will still look like an asshole and Beto will still come of as a guy the guys would want to have a beer with, and the women would want to fuck after having a beer with him.
  5. My personal guess at this point is Republicans lose 4 seats including Texas and the Democrats lose only 1 leading to a Democrat controlled Senate. I don't think Trump increases his approaval rating enough in the next 6 months to avoid both houses flipping. The McCain family through a spokesperson has said they expect him back in DC this summer. I hope for his sake that it is true. I think he is holding out thinking he will get better, not to prevent an election in 2018.
  6. The Javelins have already been delivered.
  7. I will go with 2019 with impeachment and removal from office by the Senate. I think he refuses to retire even when presented with a losing Senate vote and ultimately forces the vote. I think there will be enough Republican senators wanting to end the Trump era of the party on top of the Democratic majority.
  8. I have been following O'Rourke on facebook, and he will destroy Cruz in any debate. Plus any debate improves O'Rourke's name recognition and approval ratings. I suspect Cruz will decide against doing the debates as there is no upside for him and a huge downside.
  9. Mueller already knows the answers to many of those questions. This is a perjury trap for Trump.
  10. I suspect we we see more party flipping in the next two years.
  11. Since it has been about a month I thought a status report would be good. Republican held seats in jeapardy AZ Likely opponents Sinema Vs. McSally, Latest polls Sinema +6, Clear lead for Sinema in all polls AZ2 possible if McCain retires before May 31. After May 31 the AZ governor (R) will appoint a replacement to finish out the term I expect McCain will hold out if he can so a Republican gets appointed, otherwise Republicans run a real risk of losing both AZ Senate seats in November. TN Bredesen Vs Blackburn RCP average Bredesen +5, latest pole Bredesen +3, greatest difference +10 Bredesen, clearly breaking for Bredesen NV Heller Vs Rosen, latest polls Heller +1, Rosen +.4, a true toss-up TX Cruz Vs. O'Rourke, latest poll Cruz +3, another toss-up, although still being labeled as likely Republican by most prediction services. MS2 LIkely Opponents in the run-off Hyde-Smith Vs Espy, latest poll Hyde-Smith +6 (but with 22% undecided) This poll had an essentially equal percent of Republican and Democratic responders, so Espy's best chance would rely on a strong Democratic turnout similar to the recent Alabama senate election. A strong Democratic candidate for governor will also drive Democratic turnout. This one is to early to tell, even if it is considered likely Republican by most services. The Republicans could lose between 2 and 5 seats based on the current figures. 5 would only happen if there is a lopsided turnout similar to what happen in Alabama. Democratic held seats in jeopardy FL Nelson Vs Scott, RCP average Nelson +3.8, latest poll Nelson +4, no polls have shown Scott with a lead IN Likely Opponents Donnely Vs ?. The Republican primary is May 8, It is too early to get accurate polling for the general. MO McCaskil Vs Hawley RCP average McCaskil 2.3, latest McCaskil +4, no polls have shown Hawley with a lead ND Heitkamp Vs. Cramer, Latest poll Heitkamp +3, Heitkamp consistently leading the polling WV Manchin Vs ?, Primary May 8, Manchin is polling ~50% against all possible opponents with a big lead against all the Republican candidates MT Tester Vs. ?, primary June 5. All major predictor sites have this as a lean Democratic race OH Brown Vs Renacci, Brown +13 average of latest two pools. Lean Democrat on all major prediction sites, but so far looks like a safe Democratic seat. It looks like the Democrats could lose between 0 and 4 seats, with Indiana being the least predictable at this point. I read an interesting article that looked at the toss-ups in mid term senate races and they always break for one party or the other typically at about an 80% clip. It currently looks like things are breaking in the Democrats favor this time.
  12. Beto is going to win assuming that the level of voter interest by party stays about the same as it is now. In the recent Alabama senate race for example one predominantly democratic district had 70% of its 2016 turnout while a predominantly Republican district had 50% of its 2016 turnout. If something similar happens in Texas several other state races will also be competitive. The question is whether Trump and/or congress can do something in the next 6 months to reengage the Republican voters.
  13. If she thinks gay sex is gross, probably not. And, forget about anal.
  14. The Russians have been using green parties as useful idiots for a while now. The Russians where particularly successful in spreading anti-fracking propaganda in the EU which ultimately lead to anti-fracking legislation. Of course, the Russians don't give a shit about the environment in EU countries, they didn't want EU countries developing alternative sources of natural gas.
  15. I read somewhere that if you look at republican senators that are not aligned with Trump currently the gap may be as small as six votes. In January it should be smaller than that. It will take real evidence to get those last few votes for removal but it is not outside the realm of possibility.
  16. I was going to do this after the Philippines, but I never left the Philippines.
  17. I posted this to the Trump thread but it belongs here too. The collapse of the NK nuclear test side led to Kim's change in tactics. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un
  18. Lazy https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2018/04/26/this-could-be-the-real-reason-why-north-korea-stopped-its-nuclear-missile-tests/#16a2ac7364c2 http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un
  19. It is important to keep in mind that North Korea suspended nuclear testing because their test site was destroyed. The destruction of the test site is the reason Kim changed tactics and decided he could now negotiate with one of the terms being that they would suspend nuclear testing since they already had to. It was the destruction of the test site that led to a change in Kim's tactics not a Trump tweet.
  20. I ran into a guy here in the Philippines who said he owed a lot in federal income tax after getting up side down in the housing market in 2008. He came here and has not filed US taxes since. He is talking about taking a trip to the US in a couple months for the first time in 10 years. I am curious to see if they arrest him.
  21. I recommend a 2 week vacation to Pattaya or Angeles. Then repeat as necessary.
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