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Welch

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Everything posted by Welch

  1. Fair enough. Just seems like a heavy lift. If there are, say, 60k allowable provisionals, Biden would need to win those 65%-35% to pick up a net gain of 18k and increase his total lead to ~33k. Any fewer allowable would mean he’d need to win an even larger percentage. I did hear that 40% of them are from Philly, so that’ll help. I’m just skeptical.
  2. Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins). If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k? Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly? What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?
  3. Made the trek out to the AT&T Center yesterday, mainly to thank the players for ignoring the “shut up and dribble” mouthbreathers and encouraging people to vote. Probably 50 people in line ahead of me, but it took maybe five minutes to get through that line and another five minutes to vote. Almost a festive environment too. When I was at the voting machine, I was startled by one of the poll workers across the room yelling, “FIRST TIME VOTER!!!” and then everyone in the room cheering for that person. Have never heard that before, but maybe that’s because I usually vote with the olds out in the suburbs.
  4. I’m thinking the big surge still happened, it was just farther east in the largely uninhabited swamps and wildlife refuges. The storm itself came in on the east side of model guidance so I’d imagine the surge followed suit.
  5. I’ve been worried about this for a while. Back in 2010, Hermine wasn’t even a hurricane when it made landfall near Brownsville... but it ended up passing directly over us in San Antonio and even those winds were memorable. All the talking heads on TV have been patting themselves on the back all week, telling us that Laura won’t be another Harvey. I mean, that’s true... but it fails to mention that hurricane-level winds are possible as far inland as Lufkin and Alexandria. That’s a big deal.
  6. Assuming this all goes as we now expect, hats off to the folks at the NHC. So many other mets were aggressively pushing this west based on the Euro for the past couple of days, and those NHC guys didn’t really budge. Even when a metro area of 6 million+ was potentially in the crosshairs. Balls of steel.
  7. That was his call of the Burke walk-off in 2005. F Atlanta.
  8. I’m not sure why some of you expect people to be “permanently” turned off to the GOP. W had an approval rating in the low 20s on Obama’s Inauguration Day. The Republicans had ruled over a decade that included the worst terrorist attack in modern history, a bungled war that turned into a quagmire, a natural disaster that rendered a great American city unlivable for months, and the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression. After Obama got the car back onto the road, our country promptly and eagerly handed the keys right back to the GOP. They won the House in 2010, the Senate in 2014, and rounded it out with the trifecta in 2016. Remember, Bush left office with an approval rating 15 points lower than Trump’s has ever been. Maybe this administration will turn people permanently away from the Republican Party. But I’m not expecting it this time.
  9. Still amazed at how much credit the NBA world gives to Masai for having the “courage” to pull off that trade. is it really courageous when all you’re giving up is a modern version of Willie Anderson? He would have been committing front office malpractice to *not* pursue that deal.
  10. That should get the postseason bats rolling.
  11. This made the transition directly from Urquidy to James particularly painful. It was like going from first class on Air France to Greyhound economy.
  12. Who can forget Biggio always baiting the pro-pediatric cancer brigade by wearing that Sunshine Kids pin?
  13. “Apex predator” Carlos Correa is hitting a cool .111 in the series.
  14. My recollection is that we framed that more like, “Thank god Kenny G is gone.” I don’t remember people celebrating the Osuna part.
  15. Most amazing part of this story is that this must be the only time any Astros fan anywhere has ever uttered the words “Thank God we got Osuna.”
  16. Not much to this story. Either our assistant GM is a dumbass for celebrating domestic violence, or he’s a dumbass for liking Osuna the closer.
  17. Same here. Always dreamed and hoped id see them win just 1. Thats why im so happy for the die hard fans of Astros. I know what this means to them, thier families. There are family members that i wish were here to celebrate and enjoy 2017 and tonight. I was eight when I got to go to Game 6 of the ‘86 NLCS, and I didn’t think anything would ever top Billy Hatcher’s homer in the 14th. Now it seems like these guys top it multiple times every year. What a team.
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