Have been in the PCBa business for 30 years, including owning my own contract manufacture shop with 4 SMT lines, 40 employees etc for the last 15. This is the worst it has ever been. At least weekly we are being given lead times to common items of sometime in 2023.
I'll give some facts and some educated speculation.
Facts: Covid shut down or reduced factory output, way more demand sooner than anyone thought, takes 4-6 months to get wafer fabs back up and going at full speed, 1/2 the number of boats (remember a typical IC could have the wafer made in Taiwan, assembled in vietnam, tested back in Taiwan, and final assembly in Philippines ) so 1/2 the number of boat hurts that back and forth of product , 2x the number of people working from home needing network equipment. Thats all pretty obvious and we would come out of that situation fairly quickly. But places like Malaysia being shut down for 2 weeks in june for covid and a civil war in Myanmar (where Panasonic makes all their sensors - ask me how i know) doesn't help.
Speculation: The big guys chip makers, NXP, TI, On Semi, ST MIcro, etc etc all collectively decided we are getting our profit back, so they look at their line card and decide which items are profitable and which items aren't, they use covid as an excuse to make the profitable stuff put it on allocation which allows them to pick where to ship product to, and the rest of the little stuff gets blown off (thus some of the 2023 lead time). Now, you know who isn't getting allocated product first, the ass hole giant OEMs that haven't' allowed anyone (CMs, distributors or manufacturers) to make any money and push all obligation down to the little guy. Talking to a VP of a worlds top 3 electronics distributor that has Detroit as his area, ford and GM both cancelled orders and returned product to everyone at the beginning of covid making the little guys eat it. Shoe is on the other foot now, and everyone is taking their revenge. They are giving (lets use ford) Ford just enough of their product that they don't force them to redesign, which ford doesn't' want to do, but they are making them pay higher prices and making them wait. I buy 125,000 pieces of a micro controller a month for my largest customer and place them on boards. When covid hit, we didn't cancel anything, we worked with the manufacturer, the distributor and we slowed it down and slowly slid into the curb. It is appreciated, and my customer hasn't missed one shipment of the controller now that its ramped back up. Anyone else in the world is being told 60 week lead time, the manufacturer is picking us to ship to. Will the big OEMS learn? They will pay lip service to it (have seen some articles saying "maybe we shouldn't be such dicks" , but nah, they wont.
When will it end - It will get slowly better (i have already seen some signs) for the next few months, then all at once everyone will realize they over compensated for the shortages and will start cancelling orders, then within a month most of it will be fixed. My guess is Feb 2022.
TL:DR - Next summer cars will be back to normal.