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Anastasis

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Anastasis

  1. 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Cool, thanks for sharing.  Yeah, we're balancing the fact that yes, any movement increases risk, but goddamned, our mental health.....so, going a route that keeps risk low, but allows us to have a week off, and be together outside, is something we're really leaning towards doing.

    Yeah. I get it. We made these reservations back in Jan. 

  2. We were staying at a big house with two other families. One member of the other families was exposed to somebody who now has a fever of unknown origin. We are in a window of uncertainty so we just cancelled. Got a 100% refund so they must have a waitlist a mile long.

     So the reasoning was not cases or trends or anything. I think you can definitely do the beach  safely by packing in most of what you need and avoiding the crowds. Our situation was very different. 

    • Like 1
  3. 46 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

    I bet those 315 strikes are in the tasty range today - fucking JPow, the Brrrrr machine and the cult believers in "stocks only go up"
    (then again I'm working on mining nominal cash  from short-term near money SPY calls)

    I'm not touching any more until 320 gets in range. So probably by end of the week. LOL. 

  4. I guess an unblinded study of N=15 people on HCQ that includes randomized assignment is better than a letter to the editor.

    BTW, if you track the attrition flow of that study, you see how poorly executed the study was. They enrolled and randomized people who did not have COVID infection, and people who were asymptomatic were enrolled and randomized but excluded from the analysis.  They don't have their protocol published, but I would like to see their pre-planned SAP. 

  5. 12 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

    I had a rib roast I made over Easter weekend come out inexplicably the same way. Used the same serious eats reverse sear method I had used several times before to perfect results. 8e562d101670286efc2681ecee5cbba8.jpg

    Look similar in texture to a venison roast that I did sous vide (I think 24+hours).  Was mushy and the texture was very off putting.

    FF5-D56-CB-A2-A4-4-D26-83-ED-EAD0-C3318-

    • Like 1
  6. 2 minutes ago, B00M said:

    Can you elaborate? Last I read, even places like NY City are still a long way from herd immunity (like perhaps 20% of NYC has antibodies) so what else would reduce their case counts?

    I think that if you want to do this sort of an analysis, we need to find a state that had a very different reopening policy, but with a similar per capita trajectory prior to reopening.  California's a better comparison, imo. 

     

     

  7. 1 minute ago, B00M said:

    While I agree that the protests are probably contributing to the current case load, the falling cases in NY, despite all their riots, suggests re-opening the Texas economy is the primary source.

    NY is not really a good control for that comparison.  I am not sure who is, but you can basically throw NY, NJ, and maybe a few other NE states out of consideration. Their huge spike have downstream impacts on their case counts. 

  8. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA248-3.html

    For even odds of COVID-19 cases appearing in all five countries by January 22, 2020, the average odds of a case appearing in each of these countries would have needed to be roughly 87 percent. To reach those odds, the actual case rate in China would have needed to be about 37 times higher than what was officially reported on that date—that is, 18,700 total infectious cases, as opposed to just the 503 total cases that China reported having on January 22, 2020.

    This estimate is broadly consistent with research published in a January 2020 Imperial College London report and an April 2020 article in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, both of which estimated that there were about 4,000 cases in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, on January 18 and 18,700 cases there on January 23.

    • Like 1
  9. 37 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

    I hope you puts faired better than mine today - lots of erosion, more than can be attributed to theta and a small uptick in the S&P, it looks like pricing bias is shifting away from reducing downside exposure.
    (which may mean it is time to buy downside exposure (aka puts) but with a mid to long term expiration, other than some puts I bought in late March/early April that expire in 10 days or less, everything else I have is 9/30, 11/20, 3/21 (offset by my small call positions on 6/18 strikes at 370 and 400, which I bought as a reminder that stonks only go up brrrrrr)

    mine got beat up. So I added 310 strikes with same expiration. 

  10. 3 hours ago, bolverk said:

    Y'all might recall on the other threads, @Anastasisperiodically posting the Texas hot spot map from the NYTimes, which has been useful for contextualizing the outbreak showing previous outbreaks being isolated primarily to prison/meat processing towns.

    Right now, it's starting to look pretty fucking disturbing across the state (no paywall).

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

    For reference, here is a screengrab I pulled 06/10 compared to today's.

     

    NYT-hotspots-061020.png

    hotspot062220.png

     

     

    • Like 2
  11. 6 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

    that was no joke. Pescado was there too, as was my now betrothed.

    i found it hilarious, thought those three were going to literally start a fucking riot.

     

    Look, I just don't believe it.  Next thing you are going to tell me that the real Cloak Room ran out of bourbon. 

     

  12. 5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    Cops are scum.

    It's just what it is.

    Conversations with my 5 year old.

    Son, don't ever call the cops. 

    If you need help, find a fireman. They will help you, probably won't shoot you. 

    Dad, but how do I know that the firemen aren't also bad?

    Son, just trust me on this one.  If you ever need help, find a fireman. 

    • Like 3
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