Jump to content

Txzen

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    542
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Txzen

  1. I think the cruise ships offer a good study in this - there were certainly people with symptoms or without, carrying the disease. Reports are that the 'quarantine' was far from optimal - people not taking it seriously, eating together, etc. And still the overall infection rate was only a portion. Basically, I'd be more worried about the breakfast buffet than the HVAC. This isn't Legionnaire's Disease, caused by a bacterium with a waxy coating that allows it to thrive in those environments.
  2. I find it fascinating that people are reporting no work travel restrictions. My company informed us at the outset we were forbidden to travel to Asia, and if we were headed back we would have to self-quarantine for 14 days. Now, several weeks later, we’re being asked to curtail all non-essential travel - even domestic. I should say my employer is a large drug company, one which is testing existing agents on this bug in trials as we speak.
  3. I think we still don’t know what the mortality rate is for covid-19 (and maybe I’m misreading your post - it’s not 1/25). What’s clear is that it’s highly infectious and like other coronovirus can survive in droplets well. Most concerning, it’s the number of people put in respiratory distress and in need of hospitalization. That and the impact for the elderly and those with pre-existing issues.
  4. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/UC-Davis-coronavirus-students-medical-center-15090596.php Interesting that the first case in NorCal isn't even in the Bay Area, but the Davis/Sacramento corridor. Obviously, it's only a matter of time until we see it there, but still.
  5. The California patient was at a regional hospital before crashing and being brought to UC Davis. CDC denied/postponed testing because the patient had not had any foreign travel and didn't fit the profile. Clearly they came in contact with someone. Would not be surprised if there were additional exposures at the first hospital, as UCD seems to have taken all the precautions (not sure the first one did).
  6. From what I've read, the coronoviruses have a pretty moderate mutation rate. The current strain likely derived from a mutation, but once emergent it may be relatively stable - this hopefully allows for an effective vaccine.
  7. I know it's going to be disappointing to hear, but parts of California are (or at least should) be prepared for this. We've got earthquake kits, not to mention emergency supplies for when PG&E likes to shut of our power for days on end. Probably not enough guns.
  8. A perfect example as to why killing the host quickly (Ebola) limits the spread.
  9. So, I read the paper (and a few associated papers)... It's the type of journal report where it is only an exercise in pulling literature references to other papers to compile the data (no experiments). In a table, they reference the persistence at various temperatures and surfaces reported. Room temperature persistence across MERS, SARS, human coronovirus (and a few others) vary wildly. For instance: SARS : 1h to 2d on a disposable gown (depending on the amount deposited) SARS : 4d on glass, 5d on metal, 4d on wood etc.. But if you actually pull some of those reports, what you see is that while there is some amount of infectious agent, there's almost a 1x reduction in the first day, and at the limit of detection at 5 days (on teflon, PVC, ceramic, glass, rubber, stainless steel). So, 9d is a total outlier in the literature, and even at several days out the reduction in infectious agent is significant. It's there, but diminished. Importantly, this is different from the normal influenza virus which survives only a matter of hours in droplets and surfaces. A different beast, for sure.
  10. The virus is most similar to SARS which in general is spread from respiratory droplets and has poor survivability on surfaces. Wouldn’t worry about packages unless the mailman sneezed on it. Spray with 70% alcohol, or 10% bleach and and wipe.
  11. You’re good with math. This is clearly a special and novel Coronavirus, and there is much we don’t know. I still think it’s hard to calculate the mortality rate as it stands now given the bulk of the data from where it emerged was likely impacted by the access to care (and how overwhelmed it became). We’ll know more I think from the experience with South Korea and Italy and other more developed areas as it continues to spread.
  12. 0.1, not 0.01. And the current mortality rate is likely low single-digit, unless you are elderly and in Wuhan. https://khn.org/news/facts-vs-fears-five-things-to-help-weigh-your-coronavirus-risk/
  13. The crazy thing is High Noon is reached by all black diamond - it’s a back bowl, and not overrun with beginners. Was there between Christmas and New Year and didn’t see anything like that - had to be a mechanical issue maybe? Still not fond of Vail - the mountain layout just didn’t work for me. Had to spend a lot of time getting to those choice diamond areas, even with moderate lines.
  14. It started a little before, but definitely the year Aquafest stopped was the beginning of the end.
  15. I think that's whats they were trying to do, but somehow missed following the 101. The LA times reports an eyewitness saying the aircraft was 'sputtering' so perhaps there was an additional mechanical issue. For those not familiar with this area, it's actually quite mountainous, and both the 118 and 101 really thread a needle there.
  16. Listening to the audio - they were on a hold at the Burbank area (that's the circling for 15min). They were cleared for '118 West' which they followed. I'm not clear if the plan was to go south and follow the 101 towards Thousand Oaks or not. But it looks like that's the way they were headed.
  17. I can’t imagine trying to pop over from the LAX-Santa Monica area over the mountains to Thousand Oaks in that weather. Not clear from that radar, but it almost seems as if they were circling to wait for a break in visibility (or clearance to proceed), then dragging along the ridge to find a clearing. The whole thing seems foolhardy. Just a senseless tragedy.
×
×
  • Create New...