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ryskey

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Everything posted by ryskey

  1. On the excess deaths topic, would death rates excluding COVID be decreasing as a result of fewer deaths from other infectious diseases (seasonal flu etc) and fewer car accidents, etc? Is the number so small that it's just a rounding error? Has there been any attempt to normalize for that?
  2. Ah yes, I'm a fan of the 5-3-5 defense. Definitely the best alignment when the offense rolls out in the wishbone with 3 WR and a TE.
  3. Ostensibly "smart" people on LinkedIn are sharing this crap now. The dumb is spreading to other social media.
  4. What philosophical economic discussion would ever be complete without excessive pedantry? Define Marxist. Engage.
  5. Imperfect, somewhat Machiavellian solution: As long as we're printing money, double (or whatever it takes) salaries/wages for teachers and substitutes. Also make up the difference in insurance premiums to limit/eliminate deductibles and provide the most coverage. There is going to be a price at which people are induced to tolerate the risk. That's a better use of the money printer than buying high yield bonds. That's very imperfect and shitty but there aren't many levers to pull here.
  6. Seems like this is less about trying to time the virus, and more about taking advantage of society's (maybe temporary?) very high tolerance of remote work for the foreseeable future. Even after case counts die down, offices will be closed/limited access for several months.
  7. fify Here's a good world map based on restrictions: https://www.kayak.com/travel-restrictions Ireland? Only 6 hours ahead of TX, only 400 active cases, low per capita infections.
  8. Unite America. Not be petty. Be a reasonable human being. Reach across the aisle. If he gets rejected, then at least he tried. That would be pretty badass.
  9. Much like the Bible, these words of divine wisdom that transcend time might have slightly different variations.
  10. I thought he said "Man who walk through door sideways Bangkok"
  11. This is progress. How many high-profile people right now would have done that? Yes, he had massive financial incentives for doing so, and he knew more about OAN than he's letting on, but that was a pretty unequivocal mea culpa. Good for him. Gundy is never going to see completely eye to eye with his players. But he moved their direction. At least publicly. Progress. It's easy to discredit what he just said, but there is very little reconciliation happening right now in this country, so maybe my expectations are too low but I'm counting that as a win for unity's sake.
  12. Man how is it possible to have such an epic beer gut but still have an outtie?
  13. What makes this even worse is the off-the-charts level of stupid, tone-deaf lack of awareness this conveys. When you're a public figure, just don't do or say stuff that has zero upside and massive downside. It's just dumb, like really really dumb. If anything he needs to catch a lot of heat just for being a colossal dumbass.
  14. Oh for fuck's sake. By affiliation, % who do not trust (not very much or not at all) information about coronavirus from medical experts: Dem: 8% Independent: 34% Rep: 63% That result is a microcosm of this thread. Thanks for finding that.
  15. True, phrasing was quite shitty. But I'm still wondering why so many people chose black or white instead of saying "man, neither of these describe me" and selecting not sure. The default answer someone who identifies as D or R is apparently to err on the side of tribal demagogues. And therefore the issue is being described, consumed, and reinforced in terms of ridiculous extremes.
  16. This is a good a place as any to go on this rant. How in the hell did THIS issue become so divisive along party lines? And so quickly? Why do opinions from Ds and Rs on re-opening the economy correlate so highly with their views on gun control, immigration, abortion, taxes, and every other issue? Battle lines are drawn and critical thinking is enthusiastically ceded to the party leadership. Then it becomes a purity test. If I support a deliberate, data-driven approach to re-opening the economy that strikes a good balance between health risk and the economy, then one side thinks I've been brainwashed by the WHO and the other thinks I'm complicit in murder. "Moderate" and "independent" do not always mean the middle on every issue. They do imply using all tools available, and depending on the flavor of the month, those tools may or may not be in favor with one of the parties. D and R are quickly quickly overlapping to occupy a lot of the same space. Massive policy differences obviously, but both are wild-eyed zealots that spend all day in their respective echo chambers applying purity tests. I feel like the dude caught between Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunne in Dumb and Dumber when they're playing the stamp game in the van (excluding the whole thug-for-hire thing of course). Not just no but hell no. Give me a damned pragmatist. Again that does not mean someone who straddles the fence on everything. It can be someone who wants radical change, as long as the strategy has a firm foundation in reality and long-term thinking. Someone who knows how to unite and build coalitions, not someone who operates on emotion and whatever the outrage du jour is. In other words, a fucking adult. To tie this to the poll question, those people seem to be migrating to the Dems, so that's how I'm going to vote this cycle. But I'll follow those folks wherever they go. If they're Rs in 4 years (probably not), then I'll be voting R. Above all I want politicians who have a clear strategy for improving education. Because this country is clearly lacking in critical thinking skills right now.
  17. $40 WTI feels very overbought, but so does everything else I guess. Way too much uncertainty around product demand, refinery runs, and producers bringing back production. I am hedging some here if that helps. This bull market in everything has to correct at some point. Costless collars or 3-ways wouldn't be bad right now. Costless looks like $30/$48 right now for '21. And people have pooped on 3-ways after the crash but putting them on at these prices isn't a bad idea. I just stay away from them out of principle though.
  18. Agreed. You can also put Smart and Pierce in place of Herman and it still applies. I haz a sad.
  19. Agreed, that's what the spreadsheet math says. But OIL liquidated a couple days ago at something higher than the last trading indicated. Also, USO is getting sued: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200422005631/en/INVESTIGATION-ALERT-Schall-Law-Firm-Announces-Investigating Settling with the ignorant long investors for anything would eat into liquidation proceeds. I got out of half my shorts for that reason. USO is not disclosing their holdings either, so that makes it impossible to mark the share price to NAV.
  20. Now brokers are preventing new positions in June and July crude futures to limit the exposure. That's going to provide an artificial boost to crude oil. That will work until we have a repeat of the May contract. USO still looks like a good short, but they may be forced to liquidate next month, so tread carefully.
  21. We will need that export capacity at some point, even if US production already peaked. Light oil demand in the US isn't going any higher, but it will in Asia.
  22. Investing right now, whether in securities or assets, is way more interesting and potentially lucrative than it was a few months ago. We are in the midst of violent, volatile price discovery and nobody really knows shit, and market participants generally don't have strong conviction about anything. With respect to shale- comps, conventional wisdom and "best practices" are out the window forever. Time to do ground-up analysis and and develop strategy on long-term fundamentals, then buy and be patient. Price WILL get back to $50+ per barrel, likely before anyone really thinks. We'll also get back to $100+/bbl at some point, thought not sure if that's 2021 or 2023 or even later. On the trading side, this time is also really interesting because there's so much dislocation from all the volatility. If you find a market contradiction, that's very fun to trade. I have never been more active in my personal trading account, and for once in my life, I'm actually doing pretty well (mostly in energy). There is so much fear that there's really good value all over the place, but it often collapses within a few days, so have to stay on top of it. In short, I have never been more entertained at work.
  23. Yes $10/bbl possible but not for 3-4 months. We are getting production cuts one way or another. Proration would have been more measured and steady, running out of storage is going to be violent and ugly. Anyway, shut-ins will inevitably overshoot what is necessary to balance the market, and price should recover pretty quickly.
  24. As long as his swap contracts are very much in the money, he can shut in his wells and unwind the hedges. That's what we're going to do if oil falls to $15. That leaves him with a bunch of cash, so he can shut in his wells and save reserves for higher prices. He keeps the puts (or sells them, depending on strike price), so if price spikes upward, he realizes all that upside. I get what you're saying though. It's dangerous to be substantially more than 100% hedged when the hedges are barely in the money and there's a ton of volatility.
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