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ryskey

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Everything posted by ryskey

  1. Difference between RPI #10 and RPI #24 is a mere 57 RPI points. Really clustered together. Any of these teams can make that up with just 2 quality wins. We are currently at #15. But to maintain that, we'll need to go 2-2 at worst. Got a good idea of how RPI points are awarded, so here goes my guesses for outcomes the rest of the way: 0-2: RPI #25 1-2: RPI #21 2-2: RPI #15 3-2: RPI #11 3-1: RPI #9 4-1: RPI #8 3-0: RPI #8 4-0: RPI #7 Go 1-2 or 0-2 the rest of the way, it's a 2 seed. Win the tournament and RPI will be top 8, might not be enough to host a super though.
  2. Beating TCU or Baylor would likely move us to #13 in the RPI and a loss would move us back to 20 or so. Beating TCU/Baylor then Tech (or whoever comes out of that side of the bracket) would move us to around 10. 9-24 are all really clustered together so there's going to be a ton of movement this week. But all of that assumes everyone else stays flat. I wish they had a simulator. Actually no I don't because I would waste a lot of time.
  3. Unless I'm reading this wrong. TCU wins/Baylor loses = -0.7 points TCU loses/Baylor wins = -0.7 points Tech wins/KSU loses = -0.6 points Tech loses/KSU wins = -0.8 points WVU wins/OU loses = -1.1 points WVU loses/OU wins = -1.3 points https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2022/team-impact?team=Texas None of these move us enough to really matter or waste time complaining about since it'll happen to every team this weekend. It's just bizarre. As a reference, winning today gave us +22 points.
  4. RPI is bizarre. For all 3 of the other Big 12 tournament games, there is only downside for our RPI. Regardless of who wins, we get (slightly) negative RPI points.
  5. Avg SOS rankings by conference. Big10: 20 SEC: 30 Big12: 33 Pac: 35 ACC: 50 P5 average of all 64 teams: 33. So the Big12 is exactly average. Major credit to Big10's OOC scheduling. 10 of their teams play a ranked OOC opponent- and of those that don't, 2 others play big names that are usually ranked. Half of them have 2 of 3 OOC opponents from P5 conferences. Surprising ACC is so bad. Their OOC scheduling is weak, which exacerbates the weak in-conference schedule.
  6. Can someone explain the software glitches that somehow changed Biden votes to Trump votes? The Hail Mary attempt here seems to be that if it affected some votes in one county, then the small effect in one county extrapolated to all counties in WI and MI would result in a huge swing.
  7. I'd be down for this. More viable parties = no D/R duopoly = more competition for votes = more accountability = better policy? At least that's how you'd draw it up. The execution would probably be complete shite though.
  8. This is where I am as well. The folks I spoke to yesterday who were most vociferous about the comment were already likely voting for Trump. If you're a Biden voter in the oil industry, then most of the time the comment last night won't change your mind.
  9. There are lots of shy Biden voters in the oil industry. Still a minority, but a pretty big one, especially with the under 40 crowd. I'm sure this will have an effect with some of them. Just spoke to several last night. Is that enough to be the deciding factor? I can't say for sure but probably not. Guessing something on the order of 10s of thousands of people. If Trump wins TX by less than ~30k, Biden's comment in hindsight will have been a colossal blunder. But in a state of close to 30 million people, if Trump wins, it will likely be by much more than 30k.
  10. Where are they located? One of the great tragedies of all this polarization is that otherwise decent people don't even know they exist in an echo chamber.
  11. More likely than not he survives this just fine, even being an older overweight person. Compared to the average person who gets COVID, they caught it relatively early, and he'll have the best medical care in the world.
  12. That's not an accident. For folks in the minority party in a state to succeed, they have to work much harder AND be more talented, which acts as a filter. They have to attract apathetic voters and moderates from the other side, and that's obviously very hard. It's meritocracy shining through, people who succeed in the face of stiff competition. In short, they're often better because they have to be in order to beat the odds. On the other hand, Dem Senators from blue states are just good at politics within their own party. They can be very average and still succeed if they know the right people and repeat the same talking points.
  13. Does anyone these numbers broken out for each state? Specifically for swing states? There are probably entire states (California?) that will require voting by mail, and that skews the numbers.
  14. When you say "corn," does it rhyme with "born" or does it rhyme with "yarn"????
  15. I have a rifle and a shotgun, both for hunting from when I used to do that. Haven't shot either of them in over 10 years. In fact, I don't really like guns very much. I'm not against guns, just not into them. So I'm not a first time gun buyer but I'm behaving like one. I recently bought a scary black rifle and a tactical shotgun. And a shitload of ammunition. I despise the radical elements on both sides an equal amount from an ideological perspective. But only one side scares me in a physical violence kind of way, and it's not the dipshits vandalizing property in Portland and elsewhere (I'm differentiating between them and peaceful protesters). Those people generally aren't armed with anything more than a hockey stick and a trash can lid shield so they're not very scary. I'm afraid of angry, confederate flag waving radical right wingers who feel empowered and inspired by despotic behavior from our President, particular if he loses a close election in a few months. Those assholes are armed, and with a few well-timed tweets, Trump can and will inspire his own little army of room temperature IQ goons. My goal is to be as well armed as them. So I bought guns. I'm not voting for Trump. Even if I'm an exception, why can't most of those people buying guns just be people who were already supporting Trump and just didn't own a gun until now?
  16. No, racists and wannabe Nazis are gone. Sounds like this person isn't there yet. He did tell her she was full of shit, and she came back and apologized and said she was wrong. That's a start and quite un-Nazi in character. So this isn't what you're describing. Again I likely would not have had the patience to do what I'm talking about.
  17. Don't blame you at all for your response. Must have been infuriating, and there's a very good chance I would've done the same thing. But at some point, we're going to have to reconcile with each other. Someone has to be the one to turn the other cheek or at least change the subject to one on common ground. There is just way too much division, and your ex-friend might now seek refuge in the same bullshit to salve her bruised ego. When she came back to you to apologize, she was open to hearing your point of view, and with a little effort and encouragement from you, she might have made a big change in her life. Apologizing isn't easy and takes some amount of character, so she's not totally lost. Again, this is not a criticism. It's easy for me to sit here and type this after reading your story as a random person on the internet. I might not have had the patience to practice what I preach if I were in your shoes. In fact I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have. This is difficult. I want the schism to shrink but it takes a superhero level of mental strength to do that.
  18. My first 870 cost about $275, if I remember right. Got it with money saved up in high school working at a gas station. I think I put a couple thousand rounds through that thing over about 15 years. Barbecue + too much booze makes some seriously corrosive sweat the next day, particularly during those hot September days at the start of dove season - the stock and pump looked like someone had poured acid on them. Looked like shit at the end but still worked perfectly. Gave it to a younger cousin. So they seriously stopped making it? That's like if Chick Fil A stopped selling chicken nuggets.
  19. How in the hell is a gun manufacturer going bankrupt right now? https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/07/13/three-million-more-guns-the-spring-2020-spike-in-firearm-sales/
  20. Isn’t that the whole mission and founding philosophy of 538? To Aggregate polls and all of the biases cancel each other out? They might editorialize on the data as a side product (agreed that metric isn’t the most useful), but the aggregated data and its direct derivatives are still the foundational product and they’re pretty good at it, better than anyone else anyway. Maybe I’m missing something, but this is kind of like going to a barbecue restaurant and giving it 1 star because you didn’t like the banana pudding.
  21. There were a bunch of protesters in yellow shirts just outside the consulate last Saturday. Maybe a coincidence. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  22. How in the hell does the bat start flying so fast off to the right? He barely moves his hands. Must be some kind of sorcery. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  23. Your questions have been answered pretty extensively, just takes a little searching. Lots of advanced tech in GIS, analytics, advanced algorithms, and AI have made all of this pretty quantifiable and pretty fast. That's all unfortunately being used right now to make gerrymandering worse. Let's just start using it for good instead of for bullshit. Start here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-drew-2568-congressional-districts-by-hand-heres-how/ You'll notice scenarios that basically outline the criteria you provided. If the goal is to redraw districts in a way that is completely blind to partisan influence, #7 and #8 do that. If you think counties are an adequate representation of "communities of interest," you'd probably prefer #8 (you can switch maps at the top): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/#Compact This is also a good read if you're interested in how to do this without partisan influence, but also allowing some resource allocation capabilities: https://phys.org/news/2017-11-algorithm-combat-gerrymandering.html This all really isn't any different from the technology that city planners use to place resources throughout the community (link above mentions placing fire stations so you can serve the most people with the fewest resources). It's also generally the approach big chains (McDonald's etc) use to place restaurants in order to keep profitability high. You can do something even more simple like minimize the average ratio of perimeter to area for all districts. Our society and economy are already very good at solving these problems, and in the exact ways you described. The problem is the lack of political will to use them or advocate for them. At some point, Dems will be the ones in control of how districts are drawn. I don't want that, and you probably don't either. Why not get on board right now and prevent the generational yoyo of partisan gerrymandering bullshit? It's terrible in both directions.
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