Bottom line is this team has a lot of value and overall depth but has definitely fallen into the 2nd tier, well beyond the Dodgers and Yankees and Mariners but still firmly in the playoff mix. They have an aging roster, a nearly maxed out payroll, and lack elite prospects in their farm system, BUT they have an MVP level hitter complemented by a few star level hitters, an extremely good bullpen, and one of the 10 best starting pitchers in the league. Their roster doesn’t justify a full rebuild, but it also won’t be good enough with minor improvements on the margins.
The next 9 months will define Dana Brown’s career as a GM. He has enough flexibility to make the Astros a true contender but it’s going to require him to be lucky and smart enough to win the deals he makes. Giving out meaningful free agent contracts to players who fall apart or trading away good players for prospects who bust will accelerate the downfall, but finding unpolished pitching gems and hitters who complement their lineup will revive this team. Houston is on track to have 5 of the top 100 picks in the next draft so that’s another huge task where Dana Brown needs to have success if Houston is going to avoid falling into a perennial also-ran that needs a full rebuild.
My guess is there won’t be much demand for Alvarez, Walker, or Paredes relative to their value to the Astros, and that there will be significant demand for Diaz, Pena, and Meyers. But I could be totally wrong.
I think Houston is going to have a hard time finding the right bat to complement their lineup and might end up having their offense rely on a young strikeout prone lefty power bat in order to take the next step.
Houston has a great track record of evaluating pitchers so I will be optimistic about whatever they end up doing there.