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bullzak

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Everything posted by bullzak

  1. At Rush in Chicago they are looking at having people lie on their stomachs for 16 hours with oxygen as an alternative to vents. Kinda interesting old school stuff. Hope it works. Certainly the vent hasn't been a magic bullet.
  2. Looking at IHME model for Illinois, in last week it has gone from 3800 deaths to 777 projected by Aug. Peak from 4/16 to 4/8. Amazingly low considering density and size of Chicago. Guess they shut things down here just in time.
  3. If there is a treatment where I won't die or have any real chance at lasting damage, I will be watching games at Wrigley Field in a month. Absent that, no large gatherings happening. Lots of promise out there, and it seems like antibody/plasma could work, but scaling that is going to take a while. Forget MLB and NBA. I think football on hold unless we have some major medical development by Fourth of July. Opening up and then going back to wide scale shutdowns is a disaster. Cant happen.
  4. Velocity of money was at a historic low as of February by orders of magnitude. Going to be even lower now. Inflation isn't the immediate problem. Fed/Treasury/Congress going to bridge the 20%+ GDP bite with debt. There will be significant strings attached re: stock buybacks. Dividends will be slashed. That caps values in at least intermediate term. We may indeed see a retest. The economy is a mess. But you have never ever seen this kind of stimulus this fast and it may signal this time is different, at least with respect to how close we get to the retest. I see a lot of waiting for the bottom talk. Good luck with market timing. Never known anyone who could do it. Now, if you get a medical solution where people aren't dying all bets are off. That is a non zero possibility.
  5. ChiTown thanks again for everything you do and for providing a sober voice from the front lines on this. It seems to be that antibodies/convalescent plasma treatment is a reasonable way forward here. Know JH and Mayo are all over that. Are you guys seeing anything on that re: results and timing? Oh, and you know, OU still sucks.
  6. Chitown, what are you hearing about expectations here in Chicago over the next couple? Are you guys anticipating a NY type overrun? Seems like they expect a peak around mid-April, but so far reported numbers seem muted. Also what is time to really do big rollout of antibody tests? Figure you get a million people off the couch because of immunity we start mitigating economic damage. This is our best hope short term. And thanks a ton to you and everyone else in the front lines on this thing.
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