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bullzak

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Everything posted by bullzak

  1. CR bullshit completely overwhelming a "no politics" thread is the best indicator of a return to normalcy. Carry on.
  2. Some dude in China didn't cook his bat and now there is no sports. Fuck China indeed.
  3. All Jordan the owner needs to to draft another Michael Jordan. Voila, genius. Krause was OK only. Nobody knew Pippen and Phil Jackson would be that good. Jordan gives you a gigantic margin for error on any other moves you make.
  4. ChiTown, do you have an opinion or any scuttlebutt on plasma treatments? That road seems to make some sense and would assume we could scale in short run.
  5. I would buy that kind of number. Not herd immunity by any means but certainly significant. And since people under 18 are largely unaffected I would think you are really looking for 70% of the 80% above 18. Now you are about 200mm people. Still going to need a vaccine.
  6. I thought with Remdesivir the hope was more for early intervention [pre ventilator]. Not sure that aspect has been proven or not at this point. And since WHO is apparently the propaganda arm of China, color me skeptical of their motives in front running the actual release. Still, not great. Hopefully not terrible either.
  7. This is our concern, dude. Agree, getting frustrated with Illinois governor because I think at some level they are moving the goalposts. The curve has been flattened big time. Never got close to capacity on ICU beds here from what I can tell. Thats a great thing, but you cant start changing criteria because of some vague concern that we are all gonna die or this shut down will go for another year. Cant and won't happen.
  8. People brought up on the stroke inducing way they cut all video now will pass out before they get to the end of the brilliant opening scene of Touch of Evil. When you get into it film noir is awesome. And Godfather is the pinnacle of American film. This is known.
  9. I think Treasury basically outsourced the paperwork to the banks for a fee. Of course the banks took care of their big clients and Mom and Pop were left out in the cold. Insert my "shocked" face.
  10. This is good for Illinois. They keep pushing the deadline out even though most of the Covid projections say the peak has passed here. They followed Ohio into this and will likely take their lead at some level. Look at some point we have to take a reasonable level of risk in going back and how that risk is measured needs to be consistent and transparent or the public will just wing it.
  11. Had a friend who's dad died up in Canada [not COVID] this week. No flights in so he cant go bury his old man or visit the family. Heartbreaking.
  12. Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it.
  13. All the reopening talk begs the question of how flat the curve has to be to reopen. I am sure the medical experts would say no new cases but I dont think that is realistic when you have a potential depression on your hands. The fact that Texas and Florida seem to have so few problems suggest that maybe warm weather is going to be a factor. I think we are going to be pretty much opened up in the next 60 days all over the country no matter what. We are going to reopen with some degree of risk. How much is the question.
  14. As for the 8 peat MJ has said many times they were burned out and it wouldn't have happened. Its worth noting MJ didn't have his best NBA body for Orlando loss season. He lost like 20 pounds going into the next year and was Michael Fucking Jordan again. Heard all the rumors he was suspended for gambling etc. but I have run into a lot of guys who would probably know something more on it and I have never heard anything very solid. Dont really buy it but dont care either. The guy is no saint but at least he never denies that. Pretty straight shooter in interviews. This series is like crack. Cant get enough.
  15. Chicago is about as shut down as you could imagine. CTA down 80%. Metra over 90% Air travel down 93%. I call that substantial compliance. I think people have trouble making a distinction between shelter in place and an absolute quarantine you can never leave your house situation. What we are doing is about the best we could do, and its working in spectacular fashion IMO.
  16. Just looking at Illinois and California with huge dense cities its hard to argue that social distancing has not been a huge success. The control group is NY/NJ. The cost has been huge though.
  17. Doc, when we are talking about testing at this point do you mean antibody? Because at this point my understanding is that our ability to really test that is almost nonexistent right now. I dont see meaning of testing for the disease itself at this point unless you have symptoms and are a candidate for treatment. Personally I think we are shut down until we get past Memorial Weekend in Chicago. Want to at least shut down large scale get togethers until June. At that point you aren't really going to have a lot of control. Getting stir crazy already.
  18. My point is if you are a construction worker, plumber, bus driver, or someone else who has to be out there dealing with it, life is tough right now. I have had all kinds of jobs. No way I would equate the nancy boy highly paid shit I do now with some of the really tough work I had to do then. People who haven't done that shit dont have enough respect for it.
  19. Investment management. Year over year comps still decent. Latter half won't be great. All of this illustrates difference between haves and have nots. If you are working in an office you can social distance and possibly preserve your income. If you do real work for a living you suffer healthwise and financially. Man those people are really hurting.
  20. S&P down 1% YOY for this date. Crazy. I am long but not feeling super comfortable about it. The numbers will be horrific. But fighting the Fed has never been a winner either. I could see us bouncing around in a wide range the rest of the year. 2400-2800 something like that. Good opportunities if you are a trader and can stomach that.
  21. I rode the El daily in Chicago until Mid March. Think about being within 3 feet of at least 100 different people a day every day. Same for everyone else. Even more in New York. How about airplanes? Either way more people have this than anyone imagines, or its not nearly as contagious as we thought. Gotta be one of those two. Used to think the exposure was 10x what we knew. Might be 50x. Antibody testing is the first door out of here. Treatment is door number 2.
  22. As far as timing of the shutdown remember that the NBA, which probably has 250,000 points of contact on a given night, only shut down on March 11. If the country had tried to shut down in early Feb because 100 people died of a cough people would have lost their minds, and more importantly blown off the later more factually supported shutdown. And this isn't like Chernobyl. Those bastards knew after decades of research that radiation was deadly. They didn't give a shit. We didn't know enough about this and had to learn some really hard lessons.
  23. If the Remdesivir news of today holds up that's a game changer big time. Probably not a magic bullet but those results seem very promising. Medical science will have to save our ass. Again.
  24. For those who think things will never be the same, what if you knew that within 6 months there would be both widespread antibody testing and effective treatment for severe cases? I think antibody testing for sure, and feel that plasma or some offshoot has huge potential. An uneducated guess that we will be 75% there by October latest. Vaccine by summer 2021. If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. That said, no sports or concerts in 2020 in any event. Beer and high fives at Wrigley next summer. No masks.
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