Nah, Notre Dame would be the 2-3pm start on NBC for their 6-7 games a year assuming they get $75 million/year.
Obviously not 100% on how they are divvying up the right but if an 8-10 team conference had a single tier 1 game I assume a 16 team conference would have 2 tier 1 games and 2 tier 2 games.
Tier 3 All day: SEC t3 on SECN, ACC t3 on ACCN, B12t3 on ESPN+, B1G t3 on BTN, PAC??
11a: FOX B1G tier 1, ABC/ESPN ACC/SEC tier 2, B12 tier 1???, PAC n/a
Midday: NBC ND, CBS B1G tier2, ABC SEC tier 1, ESPN ACC/SEC tier 2, PAC/B12???, FOX???
Prime: NBC B1G tier 2, ABC/ESPN SEC/ACC tier 1, FOX B1G tier 1, CBS n/a, PAC tier 1??? B12???
Late (cable or streaming only no broadcast networks): FS1/BTN B1G tier 2/3, PAC (likely ESPN), maybe B12
What this means for the Big 12 and PAC10:
FOX still needs inventory. If they gave away the tier 2 games from the Big Ten they’ll need filler for their midday on FOX and all day on FS1/2/+ plus a need for a late night spot. Guessing it’s about 3-4 games.
NBC could still use some good rights to offset ND’s away games (which will mostly be on ESPN/ABC). Half of the B12/P10 t1 rights could be worth something to them especially if they partner strategically with ESPN for scheduling since they basically already share ND.
CBS has likely spent all they are going to spend on college football.
ESPN will need more inventory, they basically have 14 spots to fill with t1/2 rights (3 on ABC/ESPNU, and 4 on ESPN/ESPN2). They have rights to the Sun Belt and the American and a few late night Mountain West games but those are only good for 3/4 games a weekend on ESPN2/U mostly. If we assume the SEC/ACC will fill 8 spots that still leaves a 2-3 game gap that they’ll want to fill with a need for Late kicks.
I could see ESPN/NBC sharing tier one rights 50/50 for the B12/PAC.
Prime time is going to be crowded. B1G t1 on FOX and t2 on NBC. SEC/ACC on ABC/ESPN/2. Not much room for B12/PAC they’ll fill the lesser FS1/ESPNU channels or go with a non traditional streaming partner.
I see why the PAC schools like Arizona are far more valuable to the B12 right now, and if they can’t make that work I think SDSU and Boise might be #13/14 for the B12 for them to make their TV contract more valuable, since LATE kick will be extremely valuable for both ESPN and FOX.
Giving ESPN 11am t1 content opposite FOX’s Big Noon and at least 1 weekly game inventory set for LATE kick, plus locally interesting midday filler is where the Big 12 can make it’s money.
The PAC is hamstrung with only midday and LATE kick as it’s real value play. They should be selling the Stanford/ND game hard for that NBC spot plus any other angles they can play like Cal/UCLA or the Rose Bowl story line. If they don’t land NBC their best bet is getting their t1 inventory on FOX opposite the SEC game of the week and ND (which won’t look good for their next contract).
Unless something drastic happens the Big 12 is going to win out…eventually.