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blutow

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Everything posted by blutow

  1. So, she denied the allegations for quite a while (including recent direct questioning from the "independent" law firm). And then, something triggered her to report the truth. My irresponsible speculation is that someone wanted Moore gone, knew about the affair (sounded like common knowledge) and gave her some strong incentives to spill the beans. If she's driving around in a new Trans Am in 6 months, we'll know how she earned it. Maybe Moore was quickly going off the deep end she reached her breaking point and was concerned for her safety or job. But this thing popping 1 week after national signing day sure feels orchestrated.
  2. As much as I like watching the early OOC marquee games, Texas needs to eliminate them going forward. With the SEC going to a 9 game conference schedule, there is too much downside and not enough upside to making one of your OOC a 50/50 game. With 9 conference games in the SEC, coming out the other side with 1-2 losses is going to be tough and will almost always be enough to get a Texas in the CFP regardless of OOC quality. There will be situations where a big marquee OOC win could be a different maker to make the CFP, but I think it's much more likely a loss OOC keeps you out like this year. For all the simpletons saying the Florida game kept us out rather than the OSU game, that's a dumb take IMO. All 3 of our losses kept us out. We are 100% in the CFP with a win in any of those games. The difference is that we had to play Florida and GA this year while OSU was our choice. It's easy to say "just beat a bad Florida team", but this is college football and those kind of losses aren't going away and even the best teams often drop silly games (particularly against dangerous and talented "bad" teams which make up half of the SEC). Again, there is a lot to hate about dropping the early OOC marquee match ups. But it's just not worth it when the current system values the W/L record so highly. I'd rather increase the odds of watching multiple CFP marquee match ups at the end of the season vs. 1 marquee match up early in the season. One possible solution that would encourage more early marquee games - make the first 2 games of the year meaningless pre season bowl games that must be OOC. You play whoever you want or maybe they formally move bowls to the beginning of the year and the bowls pick. Bragging rights still on the line, but those games don't count toward your record that is evaluated for post season play. Those games would certainly get a lot more viewership than the current post season bowl games with everyone sitting out and nobody cares about watching anything outside the playoffs. After the 2 preseason "bowls", every game after that must be either conference opponent or P4 OOC (sorry G5). Those 10 games (or 11 if CCG still exists) would be used to determine who gets in the CFP. It would be more like most of the other sports where early season results aren't that important and they use that time to schedule the hardest opponents possible to figure out where the team is and make adjustments before conference play starts.
  3. Even with the shitty Florida loss, I think we'd have a decent shot of getting in with the 3 losses if we had looked like a good/consistent team most of the year. We've looked really, really sloppy in a lot of our games. That gives the committee an out while still saying they didn't ding us for the OSU loss. Completely shitting the bed in the 2nd half of the GA game with the whole world watching is too recent to forget. Assuming a convincing win on Friday, I think it will come down to how strong the recency bias is and how much people forget the ugly earlier games. And we'll still need some help in front of us. But I'm hopeful the committee is basically going to ignore the OSU loss and compare us to the other 2 loss teams. If they do, we'll look pretty good from the standpoint of who we beat (including head to head with OU and Vandy). It's a long shot any way you look at it, but I'd love to see the world go nuts if they put us in with 3 losses. Just win on Friday and then let the lobbying begin.
  4. I'm not sure what Texas team is going to show up on a given week, but it's all about getting hot (and consistent) at the right time. I like to believe Texas is starting to grow up based on the Vandy game, but nobody knows what this young offense is going to do next Saturday. And for what it's worth - OSU's loss to Michigan last year was worse loss than Texas dropping an away game late to Georgia (assuming it's close). That turned out OK for OSU. Lots of teams have dropped silly games like our florida loss and gone on to win NC's. Winning is hard and all the crap...
  5. Kind of depends on your definition of "good". With a very small % of college players ever earning an NFL paycheck, that puts any NFL player in rare air. Most of the good college players never see the NFL. Texas fans get grumpy when every position doesn't have stacked elite NFL talent. Silly perspective, but it's par for the course.
  6. Would be interesting to see who gets in if the following happens - Texas wins out, 10-2 w 1 SEC loss OU wins out, 10-2 w 2 SEC losses Ole Miss wins out, 11-1 w 1 SEC loss ATM loses 1 to Texas, 11-1 w 1 SEC loss Bama loses 1 to OU, 10-2 w 1 SEC loss Georgia loses 1 to TX, 10-2 w 2 SEC losses Maybe all 6 would get in, but who would be sitting home if they had to pick 5 of those? Hard to ignore any of the 4 blue bloods at 10-2 (giving GA a blue blood day pass), while Ole Miss and ATM sitting nervously at 11-1. And someone will have another loss from the CCG. I'm too lazy to figure out who goes to the SEC title game with the 4 way tie in this situation, but I'd guess that might further stir the pot for CFP. While very unlikely everything plays out that way, the only remaining games that wouldn't be chalk are Texas/Georgia and OU/Bama on the road.
  7. Nothing too crazy in those rankings. I would have liked to see ND behind us, but it doesn't matter based on remaining schedule (we'll jump them if we win out). I thought the comments from the committee chairman about OSU/Indy/ATM was interesting. Maybe I'm reading between the lines, but it was good to hear them value defense as a differentiator in the top 3. Historically, it seems like teams with prolific offense always got the most eye test points. Obviously, we are in if we win the next 3 games. If we drop a game, it needs to be a close one to GA to have any shot to get in with 3 losses. And if that does happen, we want ATM to be undefeated when we beat them. I think the ATM game is must win even if we beat GA and AR. Home game and late season game, if we lose I think we are out at 9-3. Unless aggie craps the bed before our game, they are in regardless of a loss in Austin. It would be fairytale territory to beat them in Austin and then meet them in the playoffs and then end their season in a semi final game.
  8. I'll take OSU now over a game with ND or PS. I think the results of the previous 2 games for OSU and Texas and the seeding going forward are ideal for Texas. Texas coming off a struggle and OSU coasting to wins could help give us an edge. I'd rather meet OSU now rather than the final and I don't really care about making it to the final if we aren't going to win it. Playing OSU now is our best shot at them. I think we'll be the more motivated team and it's in Dallas. None of that will be enough if both teams continue playing like they have, but that's not typically how football works. I'm not counting on OSU shitting the bed, but they are only 2 games out from a really crappy loss. I love that OSU has been anointed the unstoppable team of the century while nobody is giving Texas a shot just a week after we were considered the favorite to win it all (right or wrong). Most fans and sports writers have the attention span of puppies. Nobody really knows how it will shake out, but there is a lot of rat poison being fed to OSU right now and that's a good thing in my opinion.
  9. I'd agree that Georgia is too low. Seems like the committee isn't putting much weight on "quality of loss" and I think that should matter. I'd probably have Georgia one spot ahead of Bama and both those 2 in front of Old Miss and Tenn. Georgia has more quality wins and their losses are also better. And Notre Dame (and arguably Miami) should be behind all of them. Georgia hasn't looked great in several of their wins, so I guess it's back to eye test being a big factor.
  10. Same as it ever was - when rankings get difficult, the committee will make it mostly about eye test down the stretch.
  11. This would be enough if I was on the jury
  12. Agree that on paper Texas/Tenn schedules aren't much different, but Tenn will get more credit for a Bama win than we do for a win over aggy. Bama has a really good win (along with just being Bama) while aggy has no cache and no quality wins. Obviously none of it matters unless we drop a game, but we better at least look like a playoff team down the stretch if we drop the CCG. Just don't want to get into the 2 loss debate with a bunch of teams who all have head to head comps against each other.
  13. Good way to phrase it, similar to aggy ostensibly being first place (tied) in said conference. I don't think either is the case and many teams have been knocked down after losing a CCG historically. In the eye's of many, Texas has lost it's only tough game. As much as I'd like to see aggy drop to auburn next week, they really need to be ranked as high as possible when we play them to help our case if we end up losing in the CCG (plus, it's much sweeter to be the team to crush their dreams). An aggy loss to Auburn doesn't help Texas in any way other than maybe recruiting. If aggy lost to auburn and then us, we'd have zero top 25 wins at the end of the season if we then lost in the CCG. Again, I like our chances as long as we win the next 2, but I'd rather have as much ammo as possible if we end up in a beauty contest across 2 loss SEC teams.
  14. Most likely, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If we got blown out by Bama in the CCG, it would certainly be a discussion between us and Tenn. Recency bias (and eye test) has always played a big role with people making the decisions. If it's 4+ payoff spots for SEC, I think we're in even with a bad loss in CCG. 3 SEC spots and I think there is risk. If we lose close in CCG, we're probably in regardless of spots available. And we obviously need to win the next 2, hopefully passing the eye test while we're doing it. If we end up in CCG and losing, eye test in last few games (for all 2 loss teams) will probably be bigger factor than SOS and other "measurables".
  15. Yep, and even if we beat aggy and go to CCG and lose, I don't think a playoff spot is guaranteed (depending on who we play and how the game plays out). Our SOS is so crappy this year that it's going to be a tough argument against other 2 loss teams. I believe the committee has said they don't want to penalize teams for losing in CCG's, but at some point the body of work has to matter. With OU and Michigan sucking so bad this year, it's got to hurt our chances if we end up in a 2-loss showdown and there aren't enough chairs left to get 4+ SEC teams in. I think we'd jump Tenn if it came down to it and maybe Old Miss, but I wouldn't count on either of those.
  16. Exactly. A generational QB can make up for a lot of shortcomings and might carry a team to a title, but it's a stupic thing to count on if you are building for sustained success. It's like buying lottery tickets as your retirement plan. Quin is the best QB we've had under center since Colt (by a big margin) and he's better than many QB's who have led their teams to titles in the last 20+ years. More than good enough to win a title with the right team around him. Maybe Arch will turn out to be better than Quin, but that's far from certain and it should not be a prerequisite to compete for championships.
  17. Solid win in my opinion. While it's fun to watch blowouts like last week, I never felt like the win was at serious risk and we played smart most of the game. Very few moments where I felt we were giving Arky anything for free. Blue has to be better protecting the ball and I question Bolden's decision making on punt returns at times (although it hasn't bit us yet), but it was mostly a well executed game other than that. A few throws missed and a few balls dropped, that's football. Minimal penalties or serious breakdowns. I think Sark's comments post game help tell the story - when your defense is playing that well, playing conservative/safe football makes a lot of sense. No reason to risk forcing a ball down field when up by 2 scores when Arky was doing nothing on offense. The downside of a turnover in that situation is much greater than the benefit of another first down. Once Arky got some momentum, I thought we responded well. I really don't get the Quin hate, the guy made some outstanding throws when it mattered and managed the game well. Lots of championships have been won using that formula.
  18. How you act after a big loss is a good indication of whether you have a winning character. I wasn't impressed with the character those 2 Nebraska freshman showed in the presser. And I wasn't impressed with some of the coach's comments either, not exactly setting a great example for his team. The gals get a bit of a pass for being freshman and having a mic stuck in their face after being humiliated on a big stage, but clearly they have some growing up to do. That Nebraska team has talent for sure, will be interesting to see how they respond. The future is bright for Texas as well. I think we're only seeing a glimpse of what Swindle is capable of and Texas can always get the big powerful hitters.
  19. I honestly think there was a good chance the SEC would have been left out if FSU hadn't looked epically bad on offense in the last 2 games. The ACC CCG sealed FSU's fate with the committee watching that abortion of a game. If FSU had just lined up in wildcat all night, the optics would have been better and then they could have said their #2 guy would be back for the playoffs with plenty of time for both QB's to get reps. No good came from sticking that poor #3 guy out there for the world to see. You just can't leave that game as the last impression on the committee when there are 4 other deserving champs in play. By the end of that game, my opinion totally shifted from "you can't leave out an undefeated P5" to "there is no way you can put that team in the playoffs". I assume the committee felt the same. I thought Texas was in after the Bama win regardless of ACC outcome, so I think my view of FSU was pretty unbiased. Sucks for FSU, it will be interesting to see what they do against Georgia.
  20. If Texas does win a title this year, we shouldn't give Sark anything because Texas will still suck and we just got lucky this year. At least that's what the folks over on Texags are saying... They are already mentally conditioning themselves for a very long aggy winter. It's coming.
  21. Yeah, I'm not sure any of these guys are really doing it for the $ once you get to $10m+/yr. Maybe ego if you aren't making more than the next guy. But NFL clearly appeals to some of these guys who have their choice. Sark seems to really like the relationship/teacher aspect of college, but I'm just guessing that based on his public statements.
  22. Does anyone know if Sark has ambitions to go back to the NFL? I know Sark often references Saban, but I think he aligns closer to Pete Carroll. I don't know if he shares Pete's drive to coach in the NFL or not, but that seems like a potential risk in a few years if he has interest. I can't see him going to another college program unless Texas screws things up in a big way (ie bring back patterson, etc.). I say pay the man ~$9m plus some good incentives, but no long term guarantees. This year has been great on all levels, but it's a down year for the conference and obviously a small sample size. A couple more years of double digit wins and I'll be convinced. I feel like we're still in the first quarter and up 21 points. Feels really good, but no guarantee we're winning the long game yet. We've definitely had some things fall our way this year and we could have easily missed the CCG and playoffs based on a couple plays, but winners make their own luck in my opinion (at least in the long term).
  23. I endured the FSU game instead of the B1G last night and just assumed the Michigan game must have been much better. It might have been better, but pretty amazing that Michigan had less yards of offense last night (213) than FSU (219). I haven't really watched Michigan this year, didn't realize playing football like that was still a thing.
  24. Yeah, I don’t think sark’s agent is gonna waste the keystrokes asking for 7. If they push for something, I assume it would be closer to 10 than 7. Does Sark have interest in going back to nfl at some point?
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