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Recruiting - 2020
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Everything posted by Burt Macklin
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Week Seven Preview: From Blood Week to Red River
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in Football
There's some pretty interesting lines this week after all of last week's upsets. There's definitely some debate over who's actually good or who just had a one-week fluke. 1. Vandy is a 13.5 point dog at Kentucky and Bama is a 21.5 home favorite over SCar. So Bama seriously dropped the ball to a still not good Vandy team. Also has some inference to Mizzou since Vandy also took Mizzou to OT at Mizzou. 2. Following up on #1, Mizzou eeked out wins at home against BC and Vandy, who are 56th and 67th in F+. I have no idea how SP still has Mizzou at 13th other than still having preseason ranking bias. FEI has them all the way down to #32, and I believe FEI puts less preseason weighting in their rankings at this point in the year than SP+. To the eye test, I'd say Mizzou looks to be around 50th-60th best team in the country, and I expect they'll keep falling in the advanced rankings. A&M got a huge boost getting to play Mizzou while they were still ranked in the top 10. 3. It's not a direct comparison, but Texas was a 37.5 point favorite over MSU with Arch starting two weeks ago. MSU's performance against us bumped them up a bit in both SP+ and FEI. UGA is a 33.5 point favorite over MSU this week. I'm sure the lines will change based on how UT does against OU, but the markets are a little all over the place with the UGA game in two weeks. Most places have UGA as about a 2 point favorite over us. Fanduel is the outlier with UT as a 2.5 point favorite. Caeser's has UT +3 at -110. That seems like a pretty nice line to bet two weeks out, especially if you think UT will mudhole OU this weekend. 4. Iowa being a 2.5 point favorite over Washington surprises me some. I think Washington is pretty clearly better, but I wonder how much the game being at Iowa and Washington traveling two time zones plays in to the spread. Big Ten teams are 1-8 when traveling multiple time zones (not many unexpected outcomes though), so maybe the travel is giving a bigger home field bump than normal. Iowa's a little different this year than most previous years. They still have a very good defense, but they are more prone to giving up explosive plays this year, and their running offense is very good. If UW can hold up against the run, Iowa will be in trouble because I don't see them shutting down UW's offense all game. -
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Some of it will depend on how much he keeps growing/filling out, but he looks to have the speed and agility to stay at safety. Overshown didn’t really have that. Overshown was more straight line explosive, whereas Williams’ has better agility and COD while also being faster. But if Williams fills out to more like 230, spinning him down to LB could also be a great outcome as long as he’s willing to mix it up in the trenches.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
I forgot about Terry. Assuming him and Hilson are in, then we’d need 3-4 more top 150 guys to get over 310, which is what it’s taken to be #2 the last two years. I’m guessing the DB they feel good about is Brew, so getting to #2 would be something like Terry, Hilton, flipping Brew, Wynn/Mathis, and one of Rogers or Pettijohn. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Beyond Hilson publicly committing, all of Rogers, Mathis/Mbatchou, Brew, and Pettijohn would be huge flips at positions of need in this class. Gerry had a post the other day that Texas could be in play for the #2 class. Based on previous years, we’d need to land about 5-6 more top 150 recruits to get there, so that probably means he thinks we could get Hilson, 2 DTs, 1 CB, and another WR or LB. That would be a pretty amazing finish to the class. Lee at CB would be great too, but it seems like we’re sitting third behind Bama and UGA. Sellers would be fun for the aggie tears and it would be great to get him and Brew, but I think Brew is the better prospect and punishing Oregon for trying to invade Texas would be a great bonus. The more in-state guys we can flip late, leaving their current schools without a good replacement, the better. It will hopefully make them think twice about banking on a recruit from Texas filling positions of need for them in the future. -
It was 3.0 per carry when you include the 6 sacks. It was a little over 4 YPC when you take out the sacks. Both of their RBs were right around their season avg for YPC, which isn't great. I think PK prioritized limiting the passing game and was willing to give up some yards in the run game, so it's not the end of the world. It will be something to monitor against OU and UGA though. It's hard to say if our defense is more susceptible to the pass or the run at this point, because we've yet to face even a P5 average offense.
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That's pretty interesting. I certainly would've guessed some recent Heisman winners had missed at least a game. I still think Ewers would be the favorite if we beat OU, UGA and win the SEC title game against Bama or someone like that, but Quinn obviously can't miss any more time or have any slip ups. I would still say he's Tier 2 though. He is more likely to win the Heisman than either Jaxson Dart or Miller Moss. Those guys aren't good enough individually to win it with 2-3 losses.
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He was also high on Desmond Ridder all the way up to halfway through the season last year. It’s weird. He played QB in college, yet that’s by far his worst evaluation area. He’s pretty solid at evaluating most other positions. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nussmeier goes in the first.
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It makes a lot of sense for Portnoy as he can get serious returns on his NIL spending through publicity and player/program access. His math is certainly different than your average ultra-wealthy alum who won’t get hardly any ROI on that type of deal.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Sark used Gibson as the lead blocker on a trap play against MSU, and it made me think he’s looking for a piece like this. You can hand the ball to Terry, have him line up as an H-back, or motion him out to the slot. It allows Sark to utilize, 11, 12, and 20 personnel all without subbing so he can take advantage of defensive personnel weaknesses. I doubt Cam will declare unless he’s legitimately a top 45 pick. Pick 64 got $1.5 mil per year with only $1.5 mil guaranteed over 4 years. Cam could make a hefty sum in NIL as the best returning OL we have and improve his draft stock to a more surefire first round pick in 2026, where he’d be getting $3-5 mil per year and $6 million guaranteed. If Williams does declare, I’d expect us to be willing to pay top dollar in the portal for an OT. I also struggle to see Campbell declaring. He just hasn’t shown enough to get picked in the first 2 or 3 rounds. -
Game Thread Texas vs. Mississippi State - 3:15pm on SEC Network
Burt Macklin replied to Pancho's topic in Football
I didn’t rewatch, but this matches what I saw live. Hill looked lost and slow on Saturday. It’s probably the first time he’s faced that Briles defense as a starting ILB, so it’s somewhat understandable. PK is also generally bad against that offense. Shouldn’t affect us too much unless we have to play Tenn in the SEC title game, which I doubt happens. -
I hated on Broughton for his first three years here. He was soft and stood straight up out of his stance way too often. But he noticeably improved last year, and has continued that trend this year. The hardest thing to evaluate from outside the program is work ethic and effort. This dude’s obviously been killing it in those areas. He’s also a good reminder that experience and seniority is usually more important along the LOS than talent/star ranking (with the rare exceptions like Collin Simmons). I couldn’t be more happy for him having a breakout year. He’s making himself millions of dollars this year, and I love to see it.
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Roschon already making an impression in Chicago
Burt Macklin replied to shadow_operative's topic in Football
You just proved my point. Rams have the worst defense in the league. It’s the only team the Bears have played where the OL could open the hole that was intended regularly. When that happens, he’s good because he has elite physical tools. Signing him for 3/24 was still a bad move. -
Game Thread Texas vs. Mississippi State - 3:15pm on SEC Network
Burt Macklin replied to Pancho's topic in Football
Who the fuck are you to be complaining about ridiculous takes during a game? You posted the dumbest one of all in the first quarter of our CSU game this year.- 3282 replies
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Throwing a desperation jump ball with that much time left made no sense. Kirby taking a TO with 1 minute left also made no sense. Some really dumb decisions by UGA down the stretch in a game they probably should’ve won once they took the lead in the 4th.
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Game Week Thread Week 5 2024, Mississippi State @ Texas
Burt Macklin replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
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That was one of the worst holding calls have ever seen. It’s crazy to see how easily VaTech is gashing Miami in the run game.
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Longhorn fans embarrassing the rest of us
Burt Macklin replied to Im_smarter_then_you's topic in Football
Almost as embarrassing as someone being dumb enough to bet real money that Hudson Card would beat out Quinn Ewers for the starting job. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
My expectation is that you post very stupid shit, and you are currently exceeding expectations, good sir. -
Game Week Thread Week 5 2024, Mississippi State @ Texas
Burt Macklin replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Miss St lost to Toledo by 24 at home with their first string QB. We will beat them by a hell of a lot more than 25 regardless of who starts. -
Roschon already making an impression in Chicago
Burt Macklin replied to shadow_operative's topic in Football
He’s never had vision. The only time he’s been good is when he’s behind a great OL and then his physical tools can wow people. It was a terrible signing by the Bears that looks even worse now that the OL is the worst in the league. -
Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Notre Dame was definitely his best game, but he was also going up against a true freshman in his first ever start with a QB who holds the ball forever. He hasn’t been anywhere near as good as he was last year. -
Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
He’s been good against the run, but his pass rush is nonexistent. He doesn’t have any explosiveness this year, and he looks very overweight. He was listed at 6’4, 280 lbs last year at Purdue. He looks a lot more like 3 bills this year. Maybe some of those reports about how much weight their roster gained actually were true. Moffit’s training their roster like it’s 1999. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
This is ridiculously detached from reality. Sark will likely be averaging over 4 flips per class by the end of this cycle. He has 0 concerns about taking flips if they like the eval, and we recruit some flips harder than any other prospects. lol wut. There are a shitload of them. Byron Murphy wasn’t Sark, but he was a flip who just got drafted in the first. Sark’s taken a ton of flips who are key players on our team: Worthy, Kelvin Banks, Cam Williams, Ant Hill, Guilbeau. I’m sure I’m missing quite a few from that list too. -
Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Burt Macklin replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Will that be before or after the 40 yard dash?
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