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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. I don’t consider the LmJ injury unlucky to your point. JV could go either way as absent TJ which he was fully and CY young caliber recovered from he’d always been a workhorse. Call it 4.5 out of 6 that wouldn’t be considered to be expected.
  2. They for sure are. I’d argue harder hit than us even. Nobody pays attention because both teams chug along and make the playoffs. We aren’t uniquely hard hit but way worse than average is suspect.
  3. Javier, Garcia, LMJ, Urquidy, France, JV all missed basically the majority of at least one year of not 2 in the last 2 years. I would say having 6 of the top 10 guys on your organization chart as of 2023 have season/career ending injuries go down is much worse than average injury luck but maybe not. it’s worse than we’ve ever had happen in a 2 year period that I’ve been following the Astros for, I think.
  4. I think health is so important. It’s been ignored as this Astros team has been ~90 win team the last couple years just how snakebit we have been from a health perspective. Fuck gamblers fallacy- we gonna be healthy now because we haven’t been the last two years. Science!
  5. I didn’t post any singular event that was particularly unlikely in my scenario. Neither did you! Going to be an interesting year. If we meet in the middle on all our outcomes yeah- it’s probably 90 wins.
  6. Best case scenario on the mound 1) health! Garcia and LMJ make it to the starting mound sometime end of April or beginning of May and pitch somewhere around 100 innings each. Javier comes back in July or August and pitches 1-3 innings per outing 2 times a week. Framber- dominant Ace level- all star and receives Cy Young Votes Brown- consistently is the guy he was the last 4 months of last year- All Star and recievers Cy Young Votes Arrighetti- has another healthy year that’s more dominant starts than bad- wins 15 games with a couple clunkers mixed in. Blanco- solid MOr guy that answers the bell every start- pitches to a 3.5 era and provides lots of value Wesneski or however you spell his name- sees different pitch mix happen/ gives up fewer HR and pitches like a MOR guy Blubaugh- gets his feet wet with flashes of good and bad. Finds his way into bullpen when all starters are healthy. whitley- becomes dominant 7th inning guy Abreu/ stays healthy- is guy he’s always been which is all star level Hader/ stops giving up so many Hr- is the guy he normally is rest of the bullpen- pieces it together and doesn’t actively sabotage us.
  7. Just waiting for someone to lay out how we are going to finish 80-82 as a counterpoint. To be clear this isn’t a prediction of what will happen this is sort of best realistic case scenario. I’d expect 4 or 5 of these to more or less play out and 4 or 5 to be worse.
  8. Best realistic case scenario for Astros by WAR C-6. Does plays like a 5 win all star and Caratini is good again for 1 WAR 1B- 3 WAR. He keeps doing what hes been doing 2B- 3 War- strict platoon gets to league average offense with gold glove caliber defense as every day SS- 4 war- Peña gets back his defensive groove when he was a GG w average offense 3B- 4- Paredes hits 35 or 40 HR’s as a dead pull hitter at MMP and continues to walk LF- 4 war. Altuve catches balls well and is 30 or 40% better than league average at plate CF- 4 war. Chas is average against RHP and plays average defense/Jake is GG caliber on defense and mashes LHP RF- 2 mashes lefties and Gammel or someone else is above average against RHP DH- 6- stays healthy all year and does Yordan things. Total- 36 War. On the way to winning 105 games as everything plays out well and the Astros are the best team in the league against LHP and top 5 or 7 against RHP as platoons work well for them, Altuve is fine in LF, Yainer becomes a star and Paredesoverlay chart becomes HR city at the ice box.
  9. Which is, you know, why him being in Lf won’t be that big a problem.
  10. Dude 30 out of 30 votes is really good. Even. Better than the Blake Snell Cy young the year before. fuck- I see I typed baseball when I meant to say league. I don’t pay attention to a league the astros don’t play in. I always mess up some mundane detail.
  11. Maybe you are new here, but every now and again I engage in a wee bit of hyperbole. I guess I could have just said the unanimous Cy Young winner and by far best pitcher in baseball last year.
  12. I mean- from May 8 on last year which is 75% of the season the Astros had the best record in the AL and the second best record in all of baseball. rhe Astros were a horrific team for 6 weeks as they had Abreu and a couple starters actively sabotage the start- those guys cleaned up their acts and pitched well and they got rid of Abreu and played like what they were, one of the top 5 teams in baseball for the rest of the year. That bad start had them playing a stupid best of 3 series where they lost to the modern day Sandy Kofax by a run and then lost a game by a run where they had 4 or 5 smoked balls that landed 3 inches foul or were 110 mph piss rods hit right at someone. to say that team was barely above average does a disservice to them imo. To assign some sort of platonic viewpoint on a best 2 out of 3 series is really dumb. We got swept by last place teams every single year during our dynastic run. It’s baseball. Best 2 out of 3 says nothing about the quality of a team.
  13. Yeah man. Anyone who gets in can win it. Rangers in 23. Braves in 21. Nationals in 19. Dbacks in the world series. It might not be completely random in which 2 playoff teams win a best of 3, 5 or 7, but it's really damn close. If you get in it you can absolutely win it.
  14. Opposite field power is legit and exciting power. Most guys can learn to pull and turn on the ball but precious few can go oppo to the big part of the park. I’m gruntled so far.
  15. Never left. Just got Dusty’s in 23 and lost a coin flip series in 24 for first time during the dynasty run. we gonna be good and you are going to see the pathway develop for competition through 29 or however long Yordan is signed for.
  16. People say. People say.
  17. Just Roy this year. Works up to CY Young later.
  18. You’re my boy blu(Baugh) you’re my boy.
  19. With all the people you have on ignore how do you not have that half witted fuckface on ignore? I only have like 5-8 people on ignore and that special case managed to make the list. Holy shit I get happy every time I see a post that’s got his name on it that has been blocked.
  20. I think that’s weird and would bet against that, but if he’s playing good glove caliber defense and at all playable in the lineup even if not good you aren’t getting your ass kicked if you are paying him 15M a year.
  21. If Altuve is your Lf going forward, and I think it makes sense that he should be if he can track down balls out there which I suspect he can, Arenado makes your infield defense fucking awesome and provides a quality 6 hitter (whose pretty good against RHP and doesn’t need a platoon partner). That means that against LHP you play Chas and Meyers (or Dubon) who are legit awesome and above average respectively against LHP, hope Chas and Pena are fine against RHP and only need one bat to work out for you in the OF platoon against RHP. if we could get him for 15M a year (which is what it sounds like) and a package like Leon, Whitley and one of the pitchers that isn’t Brito or Blubaugh or Ullola (which is what the deal sounds like) then that makes a ton of sense for this team. It means you could also go get a stud OF in FA next year when we have 35M of wasted salary come off the books. I’d be all over doing that deal under those parameters. Thats allegedly what we were looking at. Doesn’t matter though as he still doesn’t want to come here, so…
  22. I mean, maybe like everyone else he just isn’t all that into playing for the whitesox.
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