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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. The rational play would be to greenlight and fast track all rebuilding but that's not in CA nature, so who the hell knows.
  2. I'm looking into the future and could be wrong, but I doubt it. Our roster will be better in August than it is today and Ohio State, who was the only team better than us, gets decimated on defense and doesn't have special players at all 3 levels returning like we do, and they damn sure don't have Arch Manning ready to be QB1. There isn't even anyone in the portal or conceivably in the portal at QB that changes that calculation. Maybe they spend 30M again, but my guess would be that they enjoy the national title, develop, and keep their powder dry for 2026 somewhat and clean up in high school recruiting rather than going apeshit in spring portal. I wouldn't want to be against them on a high school recruit if that's the tactic they take. If I'm wrong we are a top 5 team coming into next year at worst- which was essentially where we started the year this year and where we ended the year after everything was said and done on the field.
  3. I'm baking the healthy and looking awesome throwing against air. I wouldn't personally draft him b/c I don't think he can ever stay healthy over a full nfl season (amongst some other issues) but yeah- I think his pro days and combine go really well for him, QB's get overdrafted, Milroe at 3rd best in the draft is absurd etc etc so that would militate toward top 2 rounds for Quinn when all is said and done. If he's early 2nd round I'd not be surprised to see a team trade up to end of the first to get the 5th year in case he's a hit. NFL teams are desperate for good QB's and if I didn't have one I'd draft one every single year high until I did have one. That seems to be the new trend in some places. Who knows.
  4. 1- we will be better if Arch is better, and I think he will be 2- you rightly point out everyone else will be worse. Right now one site has us as the betting favorites to win the national title and another site has us as #3. I expect, when it all shakes out we will enter the season in August as no worse than 2 to win it all but I would guess 1. We will have the most talented roster going into the 2025 season in CFB, the same way Ohio State held that going into 2024, and the schedule sets up that we should view anything worse than 10-2 as an incredible disappointment. Could we lose at Ohio State or Georgia? Sure. But we will have the better roster both places. Any other loss on that schedule (OU sucks- Florida is the next best team and they are full of meh- arky and aggy suck, Kentucky and MSST- gimme a fucking break- we ain't losing those games- ditto Vandy) will be highly disappointing. 10-2 Texas playing in the SEC title game with Arch Manning at QB is definitely a playoff team, and by the end of the year we ain't young anywhere anymore. Terrible injury luck obviously changes the calculus.
  5. I've lived a boring but content life and I'm now getting old.
  6. So I've lost 130 pounds after my bariatic surgery. You've seen the before and after. It's striking and I'm very very healthy now. My two biggest regrets in life are not ever having done the 72 OZ steak challenge in Amarillo or wherever that is, and never being able to eat a McRib the way god made it with the bun again as bread makes me want to puke.
  7. Welcome to the party pal.
  8. Arm length, right?
  9. I’m much smarter because I spend a lot of time getting into it with rando’s on message boards 😀
  10. 3 QB's in the first 2 rounds if I counted that right, Milroe being third QB. I will bet the over on that as QB's tend to get overdrafted. Could see Quinn with a good offseason going in the first two rounds (I wouldn't take him at all and I like Quinn). I also would have zero part of taking Milroe, that seems dumb. Other than Quinn I can't think of any other horns (maybe Bond if he runs a smoking 40 time) that I think have much of a chance of going in the first 2 rounds.
  11. We had our guy for a generation and it all went to shit. Still sad.
  12. This was always dumb and nobody with any sense thought this. I know what you are saying in the rankings and that was factually accurate.
  13. I think he’s a draft pick on physical traits alone but like ass end of the draft- way deep. It’s possible he wouldn’t get drafted but I’d be surprised if it was off the board completely. He should come back.
  14. IT wasn't a great pass and was a bit behind him. It hit both hands and absolutely should have been a catch. He had another one he should have caught I thought. He got both hands on what would have been a very good catch (was a great throw) in the SEC title game from Quinn. I'd say his hands are like A-, top 90th percentile- not A+. That's not a knock. That's literally everything about him- all his traits (size, speed, twitch, athleticism, route running, hands) are good to great but not super elite. I don't know how much the NFL will value that. I'd be very pleasantly surprised if they value that as "First receiver off the board" value. When I think of elite with those traits I think Worthy for speed and route running, Duvernay for hands, Collin Johnson or Roy Williams for size, stuff like that. Not sure what his calling card in that is. I guess well above average at everything is a legit calling card but how high does that take you? WE will see in 3 months. Rooting for it. Yep. True
  15. OSU huh? Ok. Go get your bag. You can lose 2 Tex v OSU games in a row I guess. If you care about that.
  16. I like. Not 1.3M or anything but I like that.
  17. Maybe? I remember a couple drops, 1 particularly against Clemson on 4th down but that stands out as completely an anomaly. His hands are plenty good. That strikes me as day two not day 1 but this is a weak receiver class so, who knows? I’d be super happy to see him be a first rounder.
  18. Like 98% accurate post and also awesome. One nit to pick- in no world do we lose less players to the draft than last year. Last year the number was 11. I don’t see less than these 12 at a minimum: Quinn, bond, golden, helm, banks, cam, majors, sorrell, makuba, Barron, Collins, broughton. Thats 12 that’s pretty much guaranteed. Add to that the following possibilities: Taaffe, Moore (if they declare), and this list of- hey- it could happen (bet we get at least 1, maybe 2 picked from): Blue, Lole, Norton, Holmes, Gbenda, Bolden, Connor and you have minimum of 12- max of 16 depending upon the two guys we are still waiting to hear from. You said less than last year at 11 and my contention is no world where it’s only 10, but like I said- minor not to pick in an otherwise spot on post.
  19. What are his traits that are elite? Hard to be the top WR in your class without size, twitch, elite cutting ability, something? I’m not down on him at all. I just don’t see him as a first round type.
  20. Bobby said it as official. Thammel reported it. Call that confirmed but maybe not?
  21. No. He means we have two guys leaving so we need 2 different starting tackles. They are already on our roster in all likelihood.
  22. I don’t think you can use history like that as a baseline, you aren’t looking for organic leave on their own guys after spring ball because they don’t like their future prospects- those are depth guys. You are talking about going out and forcing people into the portal with significant money offerings I’m sure. college scouting during the spring is at least as important as high school scouting in that respect. It’s also easier because more is known about those guys. That certainty should also raise the price those guys can get to get them to leave.
  23. The last part is interesting for sure. I’d rather go shopping this spring with 2M than pay 2M to retain Manny for sure. Maybe we only go shopping with 1M because that was the number we had penciled in, but I trust (more or less) our staff to get it right.
  24. WR # 1 and CB #1 and a mid tier DT and we probably are as good or better than anybody in CFB if we stay reasonably healthy.
  25. That was inevitable I think and I’ve been arguing it as the endpoint since the beginning of NiL. The rookie of the year is almost never in contention for MVP, so why would teams pay anyone with a 50% bust chance when they could get someone that’s already proven not to be a bust? It’s never going to be 100/0 bc you need baseline stability, it if given the chance to pay a high school blue chip 1M to get his freshman year (and the. Have to renegotiate)or go pay an all sec or all big 10 guy 1M to get his contract year it’s not even close to a decision to me. Freahman recruiting is still valuable (for now) to have the home field advantage in retention when it comes time to figure out market value later on in time, and because human beings are generally lazy and prefer inertia to change, but the more common transfers of successful players out from blue bloods become the less valuable either of those two advantages are. The good news (for high schoolers in the future anyway) is that the fewer of them that get paid now will lead to more getting paid later as that will become a money ball competitive advantage. Texas, to me anyway, should play this as an early majority with our advantages etc. Boise state types should be the innovators and big 12/ACC/middle tier sec and big 10 schools should be early adopters. Anyone with prestige, money and history should be monitoring the back and forth such that they are in the early majority with a foot in both camps for money to be the largest possible advantage. if I had to speculate I’d bet 3-5 years from now the ideal mix in the starting 22 would be something like 12-15 transfers for Texas, but some of those transfers coming aggressively after year 1 at a lower level school that you recruit in to then develop/retain. this year we started 3 transfers on offense and 2 on defense. That seems light to me especially in light of the fact that all 5 transfers will be on the nfl. I could be wrong and that number could ultimately be too high at 13 and maybe settled at 8-11 or something, but it’s going to be higher than 5 in the future I’d almost guarantee.
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