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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. You are blind. The sec gets 4.
  2. Stop. That was dumb and you should feel bad for posting that. There’s no world where this happens.
  3. I’m holding out hope for usc to beat the Domers still.
  4. Well, it’s been a minute since we’ve played these clowns. I could write 10,000 words or I could write 100, maybe I will split the difference We just witnessed a wonderful day of college football. Texas clinched a place in the college football playoffs. Anyone who doesn’t get this is a pants shitting retard (my dad, after his tramatic brain injury is one and he even gets it). Aggy lost to a shitty Auburn team and while they still control their own destiny they are in a win and they are probably in the playoffs situation while if they lose they likely finish as like the 6th best team in the league. Knowing the history of aggy what do you expect? Some fun stuff- we have had a brutal last decade, however: last head to head win- Texas last conference title- Texas 2023, aggy 1998 last playoff appearance- aggy- never- Texas- 2024 i could go on and on and on (and I’m sure some will) but even during the worst time in our programs history we are outdoing those dipshits, and I expect we will crush their spirit next Saturday. About the game: it’s football, anything can happen. But, and I swear this isn’t homer-ish, we literally are better than them in every single position group with maybe the exception of kicker and definitely punter (I’m still low key pissed at Sark about punter). Could they win? Sure. Is that likely? Not really. my guess is we go in as like a 9.5 point favorite on their home turf. Which would make us like a 14 point favorite in Austin. If our offense doesn’t actively buttfuck our defense I don’t see how they score enough to matter to us. I’m not getting into a major prediction of the game situation as there will be a thread for that, but, I’m figuring on Texas winning, as is the historical norm. Hook ‘Em high like an eagle soars, nobody is overlooking this game Bill in Sinton.
  5. That doesn’t sound right. TN isn’t in over aggy?
  6. If the offense doesn’t buttfuck our d over and over they will have serious problems scoring.
  7. I texted a couple people at the game we were going to see arch staff the second half. It’s like the easiest decision ever with how limited Quinn is right now. Dumb.
  8. Thats because Quinn played well. When that happened we are fucking awesome.
  9. None of that is a disagreement with what I was saying. They haven’t been great- they have all been catchable and all should have been flagged.
  10. Good compared to normal. They’ve all been catchable and 100% of them should have drawn DPI. That said the reason I say good for him is because they typically suck so this is a step forward.
  11. That exit looks like Arch in the 2nd half for sure.
  12. Well, ole Miss can go as fast as they want and do all the time. They are being really smart here and purposely going super slow to play keep away. Kiffin is a pretty damn good manager of game situations.
  13. So- you probably weren’t going to kill the clock especially with Klan having 3 TO’s. The lack of killing clock probably lets Florida have the ball in their hands for a win after the klan scores a TD.
  14. Exactly. And, you don’t need to have rates be perfect for a year or forever. You just need a trading range and dip into that area at a time you are paying attention (and I always pay attention for them). Best day to buy is always yesterday. Next best day is today. Once you are locked into a rate your life can only improve it can never get worse. It’s a fundamental lesson that buyers have a hard time internalizing because they are seldom making these kind of decisions.
  15. Here is my confidence interval for the next 4 year presidential term. I will put somebody in a rate that starts with a 3 (right buyer, right loan etc- not run of the mill dude)- 40% I will put somebody in a rate that starts with a 4 (right buyer, right loan etc)- 90% I will put somebody in a rate that starts with a 5 (same caveat)- 99% I will have less than 10% of my buyers pay a handle that starts with a 7 for more than 6 months (90%)- note- we do 1 year buy down as I mentioned from the national average- so my dudes that are at 7.1 or 7.3 on a jumbo are bought down to 6.1 or 6.3 and they exit within that year or shortly thereafter. I think the range for the national average during this presidential term will trade between 4.3 and 7.3. 2025 I think the trading range for the national average will be 5.6-7.1. 2026 I think it will be 4.75-6.25. My crystal ball gets a little foggier after that.
  16. I quoted you because that was the article and many more speaking about the MANY people dooming in the media. Wasn’t meant to be directed at you in particular. We disagree a bit but your perspective is in no way unreasonable. Wasn’t meant as a shot at you. I don’t believe it’s 100%- I’ve said before that you could be right but it would require a fundamental change and would be against what’s historically happened. Paradigms shitty- I just typically bet against.
  17. We had 4 years of policy. The economy grew basically without inflation. This dooming is absurd. If government waste is truly cut it won’t be recessionary, it will be a net benefit. The government inefficiency and spending is a brake on the economy. We are about to win win win.
  18. That's all well and good until it isn't and a day of reckoning comes. I guess those pricks don't care as they are in and out on the trade. Never mind that rates are probably artificially at least a point too high in the mortgage market- Fed Policy has been overly restrictive for 18 months at this point in time (maybe only 12 months) b/c these garbage people are consistently lying about the numbers and there is no punishment mechanism for them. The Soviets used to be able to "rely" on the government reports to tell them what the numbers were until it collapsed in upon itself. Like- honesty and transparency is really important. We have none of that right now. Either that or rank incompetence. But at this point it seems hard to believe rank incompetence is the thing- but even if so it doesn't make any functional difference. I think that's the right answer to my question by the way- even if I don't like it.
  19. QCEW report came out (the one that made news in July showing labor department had overstated jobs by 800k+ Well, in the last report it shows that the previous 12 month jobs were overstated by 1.26M. So, some of that ecompassess the 800k we already knew about, but the problem was even bigger and getting greater. Total job creation in the last 12 months was actually 1.24M (reported as 2.5). 2.5 isn't great but it's fine- 100k job creation a month is complete and utter trash. But no, the next time you read the headline "jobs smash market expectations" the bond market will froth away as if those numbers actually mean anything. They don't. How this isn't a major scandal and how the market remains so credulous of this shit I cannot fathom.
  20. So sorry. Did all the scoreboards and thought I posted the prediction thread. Bad Wulaw. Texas 42 kentucky 3 prop bet (their offense sucks and ours struggled)- total combined yards from scrimmage 614
  21. Shit. Thought I posted it.
  22. Sure. 2021 wasn’t real or market based though. The target of what the best we could sort of hope for in a non artificial way is probably late fall of 2019 before Covid disrupted everything. My good borrowers were doing 3.75% or so then.
  23. It’s not great man. It will get better. It was a full point lower 60 days ago.
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