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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Big miss in the jobs report. Unemployment up. Wages down. Lost 100k jobs to revisions in the last 2 months (IOW those numbers were bullshit as I said at the time). Cue “it’s happening” GIF. employment is a lagging indicator. This wasn’t hard to see. Maybe it’s just a blip and I’m wrong/an idiot. anyway welcome news in the home industry. This should move rates away from 8 forever and I think we probably ease down below 7 (and stay there) by the end of the year (if not for average borrower at least the well qualified ones).
  2. Is there though? He’s not interviewing managers so…
  3. Do we? relievers are volatile. You have Presley and Abreu locking down the back end. Montero and Graveman have done it before and could again. Bielak, Whitley and blanco are sort of interesting as non leverage guys. RP are generally cheep at the deadline. I’d be ok with wait and see. Brown is a starter all the way unless he shits the bed. He will absolutely not be a part of the bullpen situation unless things go badly for him.
  4. I suspect there’s a recession. I don’t know it with metaphysical certainty. If I’m wrong and prices go up 50k someone might be priced out. If I’m right and they are viewing a house as a place to live they aren’t going to sell for a lot of years they won’t be harmed. If they lose their job and can’t pay for a place to live they will STILL be better off owning. I’ve explained fully what I think is going to happen, what I believe about homeownership and how I operate as a professional in my job. You can think I’m full of shit and I promise I won’t lose a bit of sleep tonight. I literally sent this to my buddy 30 minutes before I stared on this thread: ++++++++++++++++++++++ I want this 100% disabled VA loan to close so badly. We will make money which is cool, but the biggest thing is it will change his life. I’ve got a good appraisal, working out 20k worth of debt to be paid by the seller which will save him 1000 a month in payments, and he will have a great new house he can move his wife, 2 kids and mother in law into while he has a base to settle down traveling the country. I went from 20/80 it will happen to 60/40. The coin is in the air and nothing else I can do now. They said they’d do it, but… he got turned down 2 times already by morons. Not because they didn’t get it done but because they ducked around, weren’t straight with him then lied. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ copied even with typo on ducking. This isn’t some sort of act for me. This is how I live my life and what I believe. I know there’s a dozen people I can point to over the last 5 years whose lives were radically changed because I helped them do something other people said they couldn’t and it’s my favorite feeling in the world.
  5. I’m not. I saw my mom and dad get foreclosed on. They were better off as owned that lost the house than as tenants. I saw lots of other people stop making payments and the end up back on their feet and catch up on their payments. That also is better than stuffing your landlord. They can evict within days. The bank takes 12 months plus generally to foreclose.
  6. That happened to my mom and dad. They lived in their house 15 months without making a payment before they got foreclosed on and then got a $4,000 check for not stripping the place or trashing it on the way out. It was sad to watch. It was also a million percent better for them than if they were tenants somewhere.
  7. Ok cool Hookem. You didn’t strike any nerve with me. I love homeownership and am fine with talking about it with anyone. If this is some sort of bad faith gotcha game I guess I wasted 15 minutes of the last hour of my life responding to you. Congratulations I guess?
  8. 2008 was a recession caused by the housing market, which is generally as bad as it gets for house prices. Homeowners sure did bad then. Oh wait- they didn’t: Home prices fully recovered by late 2012. If someone bought a house at the very peak of the recession in 2007 and held the property for 5 years, they made money in appreciation after 2012. It took 3.5 years for the recovery to begin after the recession began. Also- rates drop during a recession (almost always) so you can often times end up with a lower payment by taking advantage of opportunities to refinance during those times as typically accommodation gets easier and rates go down. again, if you are buying for a couple years I’d suggest renting not owning, but as a general risk the price for being wrong sitting out buying if the market goes higher is really really bad while if you buy and hold during a recession you are made whole while also having a place to live.
  9. I’m not trying to sell anyone shit- someone calls me up because they want to buy a house! I’m not knocking on doors trying to convince anyone to buy a house- I don’t even suggest they do so. I literally answer my phone when someone calls me that wants help buying a house and I help them! I also didn’t say houses always go up in value (I said yesterdays rate is always preferable to todays and today is preferable to waiting for tomorrows), but over a long enough time they always will (absent living in a place losing population which isn’t anywhere in Texas or Colorado where I’m licensed to do business, and I don’t expect either of those places to lose population in my lifetime), provided you aren’t forced to sell. And that long enough time period is generally a couple years- 5 at most. I actually have counseled people not to buy houses when they are dealing with a transient time period (less than 2 or 3 years) and just this past Friday I even told an old woman who was looking to buy an investment home across the street from her it wasn’t a good deal unless she had some other reason to buy because it wasn’t going to pencil out as a good investment at her time in life in this market environment. She said she hoped her son would live there one day. I told her to talk to her son and see if he ever would. She had that conversation with him and called me up and told me he didn’t want to commit to that, he saw himself settling by his kids and not her, and she thanked me for being straight with her. But, the dude who’s buying a house with the intention of staying for a reasonable amount of time? Literally almost always better off buying now as opposed to trying to time the market for the reasons already stated. If you guess wrong on timing the market you can get locked out of the market and lose out on the #1 wealth building tool the average American has. If you buy now and 2 years later your house is worth less and you keep living there then 5 years later it will be worth more and you will have provided for your family’s second greatest need after food (shelter) among the way. Home ownership is literally the thing that has built and fueled the American dream. I’m not fond of homeownership because of the business I’m in, I’m in the business I’m in because of my belief in the values both for an individual, and society at large, that come from homeownership.
  10. Always appreciating? Of course not. Especially over a short enough time period. Held long enough? Sure. And you have to live somewhere. the average American has the vast vast vast majority of their wealth due to home appreciation. There are very few people whose life wouldn’t be better by buying a house, and generally the sooner in life you buy a house the better you do.
  11. I mean- yeah- that is the plan. The best day to buy is always yesterday and today always beats tomorrow. That’s what happens when you are buying an appreciating asset combined with the lender having to honor todays interest rate while you can change the tens at any time. My OU are presenting that as if it’s bullshit but it’s how the market actually works.
  12. Yes. But going from 2.75-8 in 18 months is not normal. higher doesn’t mean- highest in a generation in 12 or 15 months.
  13. No car notes. one mortgage note. Kids to feed. Cool- there are plenty of people who have equity in their house and low interest rate. Absolutely. Which is why I said- we talking to a bunch of boomers here? Or people who already got theirs. It's a really shitty time to be someone that's treated like part of the scenery or infrastructure in this country. It's a super shitty time to be young. People are being priced out. That's part of what explains the migration we are seeing where places like California and NY are hemoraging people, is trying to get their piece of the American Dream and have been locked out. But, it's even becoming less affordable in lower COL places as well. I'm fine with making the standard gentlemans wager that this is a house of cards that all comes tumbling down economically before the close of 2024. Like I said- I may well be wrong, but I'm not projecting my personal financial situation onto the broader general economy.
  14. Yeah, this is the kind of stuff I'm talking about when I say I look beyond the headline numbers. Also- something like 2.1M service jobs added in the last 12-18 months, which I believe (and this is directionally accurate if not precisely accurate on the numbers) represents more than the total jobs added economically over the same time. If it's not all of them it's most of them. People are working 2 and 3 jobs in shitty sectors and piling up massive credit card debt and having their rides repo'd. The foreclosure stuff is sort of bullshit on the up 18.4% b/c it's basically from all time lows. We have enough appreciation in the sector that it's really not an issue. If that goes away things get super grim and bleak- but because of the supply and demand issues we've talked about so often on here I don't see a big drop in prices, and actual appreciation is up 3 or so % YOY which is pretty much what you'd want.
  15. sorry- was truly not trying to put words in your mouth on that. I was responding without going back up and reading (and hadn't quoted so it wasn't in front of me). I'm not ignoring positive economic data b/c I'm in the mortgage business and it sucks to be in the mortgage business in 2023. Sure. It does. I'm making a living. I was on the top 25 brokers in Texas at UWM last month. I missed the Scottsman top 150 brokers last year by 200k in loan value (less than 1 loan- grrrrr). This isn't me personally in a death spiral. This is me paying attention to lots of economic numbers and actually diving down into stuff below the surface and looking at them and analyzing them and forming my own opinion. Maybe I'm wrong.
  16. Yeah man, I really want to see the people @Storm the Field is talking about who are saying their personal financial situation is great and never been better. I just am not running into anyone like that and I obviously have dozens of conversations with people about their personal finances every month.
  17. I'm skeptical on that polling when I see the macro numbers. Feels like they talked to a bunch of boomers.
  18. That is a really good answer on #1. I also think that inflation on every day goods and services and food and gas is kneecapping the average family as well and that really hurts. I paid $6.00 a gallon out in California and went to a restaurant (not all that nice- mexican food joint) and nothing was below $18.00 on the menu and I was like- how do people do this (was at my cousins wedding by myself). Yeah- many people in our industry aren't surviving, that's for sure. Was talking to a realtor who isn't bad and she's getting a job. She told me she is tracking like 40k this year. She ain't alone I don't think. And she's a working agent that actually you know, buys and sells homes.
  19. There is one more olympics I want to see other than drunk racing and that's fat person olympics. Must have like a bmi over 40 and most of that be fat and not like NFL Edge that's shredded and in great physical shape. Nope, I just want to see the best of the best fat people doing olympic events. I think it would be awesome. I'd rather think about drunk racing and fat people olympics than this game. Some asshole owes us a mudhole post to try to calm my nerves.
  20. I mean, if you show up later than me and sober I'm a gentleman and will give you time to get drunk before we race, fear not.
  21. Now that I'm skinny and squatting massive amounts of weight I can run much faster and much further. I'm thinking you don't want any part of me in the 100 which I will drop in a smooth 15 flat. When I slap you with a white glove the next time I see you at a tailgate you will know that's my challenge to you in the 100 yard dash.
  22. I wouldn't mind the spread narrowing from 3 to 2 (it's historical spread) and getting to 3.0 or 3.5. I guess my real dream is we get into the low 4's again at some point in time between now and 2026 or so. A point a year would be pretty good. Mid 6's next winter, mid 5's in 2025 and mid 4's in 2026. That seems doable at some point in time in the future with normal economic cycles. Couple questions: 1) Anyone believe the Fed when they say the economy is "strong". I see the GDP growth but that's based upon government spending and consumers going massively into debt on credit cards for essentials and lets just say I'm highly dubious 2) when's your bet for the next time you lock a rate at 5.99% or lower? I've got 9/1/2024 on my bingo card.
  23. Winning a WS is hard. We could easily have 4 but we pissed 2 away because we couldn’t win a single fucking home game in a 7 game series. We were not even close to the best team in baseball but it would have been nice to steal one to make up for 2019. we should have at least 2 more very legit chances coming up.
  24. Congrats to y’all. It’s pretty cool go get that first one. Enjoy.
  25. Thanks man. I don't think I've missed a day (M-f) at the gym or on the road doing intervals in like 6 months. Including when traveling. Lot of work. Or total and complete cheating. Sometimes I forget which. Just happy to be healthy and feeling better than I ever have. Still incredibly sad every time I eat (which is all the time). I wonder when (if?) that ever goes away...
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