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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. I will absolutely take the opposite side of this bet. We were refinancing people into the mid 5’s 60 days ago. the only thing causing inflation right now to be beyond the 2% mark is shelter costs and that’s a fucked yo calculation that has nothing to do with real world events (look up how owners equivalent rent is calculated, realize that’s like 35% of the component and then have utter and complete contempt for government numbers). we’ve had 20 years of data saying 4.5 is more or less the median rate- it’s not resetting to 7 being considered a good rate.
  2. Sam Pittman is both a cunt and a pussy, and Arkansas should fire him for being a jackass regardless of what the record is.
  3. Horns 48 Hogs 13. prop bet/ total yards from scrimmage for WR room: 333
  4. I mean- it's not going to happen. But damn it would be fun.
  5. Oh my goodness- that's Ryan Presley's music.
  6. We should sign Soto. He's like 26 years old. 12/600. 50 a year wouldn't break the budget with Yordan being cheap for the next 4 years. Tucker is gone in a year. Bregman is gone this year. We don't have to pay Yainer for 5 years and then he will be gone like everyone else. The point is we can afford him and he'd make us a lot better- and who gives a fuck if we suck 9 years from now. WE should also sign Walker (4/80) and kikuchi- (3/48) Lineup (166) Aluve- 27M Yordan- 17M Tucker- 20M Soto- 50M Walker- 20M Yainer- 1M Chas/LHH OF- 10M Pena- 5M Dezenzo- 1M Bench- 15M Starters (70M) Framber, Brown, Kikuchi, Arrighetti, Blanco, LMJ, Garcia, Javier Bullpen- Trade Presley (30M) Hader, Abreu, Scott, Whitley, who gives a fuck it's filler from the minors and left over starters That's a 266M payroll and the best team in baseball. Yeah- we are eating some money. That money is all basically gone after this year. we will have about 100M coming off the board in 2025 and 2026 that isn't even being used other than Tucker and Framber. Kikuchi replaces Framber and Soto replaces Tucker. But, if you want to do the Soto, Walker and Kikuchi signings and Trade Tucker and Framber and get some real pieces back for them to build for your future, along with getting the payroll down I'm down with that as well. Note- I don't expect any of this to happen- and certainly not all of it together- but I could see any of those 3 signings happen in an individual sense. I mean- Soto would be shocking but it would be cool.
  7. Notre dame. Boise (or whoever is highest rated conference winner). 1 each of acc and big 12. That leaves 8 to between big 10 and sec. Ohio state, Penn State, Indiana and Oregon are all definitely in- right? We probably need to not fuck around and lose to aggy or piggy.
  8. Strong/herman whatever - it was all mediocre terrible football and it sure as shit looked like we were in for more of the same after arky. so glad it’s going back the right way.
  9. So, here we are. Back to the scene of either the worst or 2nd worst game of Sark’s tenure. I’ve only seen him get out coached twice in my opinion- Arkansas 21 and Georgia this year. This game, on September 11, 2021 was just such a humiliating data point as a program that showed how inept and far we had to go. Hudson Card and Casey Thompson were the QB’s. Shudder. The O line couldn’t block anyone. The skill position talent was ok but nothing to write home about. The defense was horrific. it was the kind of team and program one should expect after that chucklefuck Charlie Strong shot all over the place for 3 years. And then, we had our new guy supposed to fix it and he was crouched on his haunches on the sideline in a catatonic shock. Not good man, not good. Fastforward 3 years and 3 months and it’s night and day different. The QB controversy didn’t ever really get going this year- but if it had we’d be fighting over 2 guys probably going to go in the first round. The offensive line is the best it’s been in 20 years here. The skill position talent will play on Sundays. The defense is really good. Sark is stealing top 5 classes. We played in the last 4 team playoffs and look poised to play in the first 12 game set. with everything that happened around the conference we control our own destiny (as I said we would after the Georgia game). I hate losing any game. But, the goal isn’t to go undefeated (ask Saban if he wants give back any of the MANY titles of his that has a loss) but to win the conference and then the national title. Those goals are right there. Just have to win. Against a team we should. But that will be pumped to run our face in it again. We owe them. Let’s make them pay. Game Week stuff here.
  10. Get a good LHH platoon partner for Chas and that's probably fine. If you do well at the IF corners.
  11. Texas 44 florida 6 prop- yards gained for Florida: 196
  12. Down 33 on MBS now. Sort of a shrug? We move more for a bad inflation number.
  13. Went ahead and nailed that except a little light (probably) on Senate. 10 year up 15 in after hours trading. Not sure that makes sense on a rocket ship to the moon with cute coming and weak jobs report and inflation coming back down, but we will see how it shakes out. sort of nuts to me right now.
  14. Vegas. Back tomorrow to put up the prediction contest thread. Sorry- screwed this up.
  15. at 8:00 am when habib texted me the MBS market we were up 31. Looked at Jobs report. Happy days are here again. Fucked around, got ready, ate breakfast, commuted to work, logged into my computer and we are down 9 in the MBS market. ON a day with 10k jobs for the month and 113k in revisions downward. And bad manufacturing. Make it make sense Phil, make it make sense.
  16. That’s still pretty brutally bad.
  17. What’s so weird is it is almost always adp coming in way low compared to BLS. ADP counts anyone on payroll. BLS counts people actually getting paid. I wonder if there was some sample stuff during the strike or something affecting BLS in a wonky way this month?
  18. I am so angry. there were basically 3 things that caused interest rates to go up an entire point in the last 6 weeks. jolts coming in 200k over expectations- that was revised downward by 500k openings BLS coming in 100k over expectations: today revised downward what- 120k jobs. inflation going up 1/10. It was basically rounding. What was it like- .03 or something on the miss? did I miss anything causing the rise? Yeah- a coupe fed governors jaw boning the market worse a bit. Why did they do that? Because the numbers they are working with are total and utter garbage. but, 10k jobs this month. That’s a thing that actually happened.
  19. I have wallowed in sadness for 4 weeks now when it became obvious this nonsense was happening. I think I'm reaching acceptance now and will go back to laughing like the dog in the fire. It's either that or cry or drink bleach or slit my wrists or something...
  20. I am well aware. Probably cost me 30 deals this month. Such a beat down. I sure as shit hope so. Just need like 300 more after that to get back right.
  21. And we close at 7.03 for the national average. Right back to basically last December. Just about the worst of this year. Maybe there was another bad month a little worse. I’ve tried to kill those brain cells since then.
  22. So, we went a little long on part 1 of the three paths available to us. Sets the predicate for next two. We talked about basically the value of everyone in the organization and what we could stockpile of we stripped it all out and sold it for parts. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2JRbnYlM1cqgoWlAA5asgA?si=qkrjp-NMRUKCX5_2iHKk0w&t=4&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A5vKqv5UBQ9OzAc9tPoEzac
  23. Jolts has us down 500k job openings. Clear weakening in labor market. We still are off 15 points today in the mbs market. It makes absolutely zero sense. We are up 1 actual percent in interest rates since the fed cut 50 basis points. It is literally crazy.
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