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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Down 33 on MBS now. Sort of a shrug? We move more for a bad inflation number.
  2. Went ahead and nailed that except a little light (probably) on Senate. 10 year up 15 in after hours trading. Not sure that makes sense on a rocket ship to the moon with cute coming and weak jobs report and inflation coming back down, but we will see how it shakes out. sort of nuts to me right now.
  3. Vegas. Back tomorrow to put up the prediction contest thread. Sorry- screwed this up.
  4. at 8:00 am when habib texted me the MBS market we were up 31. Looked at Jobs report. Happy days are here again. Fucked around, got ready, ate breakfast, commuted to work, logged into my computer and we are down 9 in the MBS market. ON a day with 10k jobs for the month and 113k in revisions downward. And bad manufacturing. Make it make sense Phil, make it make sense.
  5. That’s still pretty brutally bad.
  6. What’s so weird is it is almost always adp coming in way low compared to BLS. ADP counts anyone on payroll. BLS counts people actually getting paid. I wonder if there was some sample stuff during the strike or something affecting BLS in a wonky way this month?
  7. I am so angry. there were basically 3 things that caused interest rates to go up an entire point in the last 6 weeks. jolts coming in 200k over expectations- that was revised downward by 500k openings BLS coming in 100k over expectations: today revised downward what- 120k jobs. inflation going up 1/10. It was basically rounding. What was it like- .03 or something on the miss? did I miss anything causing the rise? Yeah- a coupe fed governors jaw boning the market worse a bit. Why did they do that? Because the numbers they are working with are total and utter garbage. but, 10k jobs this month. That’s a thing that actually happened.
  8. I have wallowed in sadness for 4 weeks now when it became obvious this nonsense was happening. I think I'm reaching acceptance now and will go back to laughing like the dog in the fire. It's either that or cry or drink bleach or slit my wrists or something...
  9. I am well aware. Probably cost me 30 deals this month. Such a beat down. I sure as shit hope so. Just need like 300 more after that to get back right.
  10. And we close at 7.03 for the national average. Right back to basically last December. Just about the worst of this year. Maybe there was another bad month a little worse. I’ve tried to kill those brain cells since then.
  11. So, we went a little long on part 1 of the three paths available to us. Sets the predicate for next two. We talked about basically the value of everyone in the organization and what we could stockpile of we stripped it all out and sold it for parts. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2JRbnYlM1cqgoWlAA5asgA?si=qkrjp-NMRUKCX5_2iHKk0w&t=4&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A5vKqv5UBQ9OzAc9tPoEzac
  12. Jolts has us down 500k job openings. Clear weakening in labor market. We still are off 15 points today in the mbs market. It makes absolutely zero sense. We are up 1 actual percent in interest rates since the fed cut 50 basis points. It is literally crazy.
  13. I was just kidding. Should have at'd @UTPhil2006 and @LCHorn, @smoothlonghorn, @Neonmoon and whoever else is in the industry. Was just messing around.
  14. Down another 16 points today. Blew past support supposed to prop it up- we are now approaching worst conditions in what 6 months? Something like that? This is absurd and I hate everything about what this market is choosing to be. Fuck it- I guess we will just have 7% interest rates forever (narrators voice- we won't have 7% rates forever I don't think) but damn, I feel like Sisyphus pushing his damn rock up the fucking mountain for the last couple years now. I know all the rest of yall love this market- sorry to be the only one miffed about it.
  15. With the now credit scores on fha sometimes even paying no mortgage insurance vs paying mortgage insurance on the fha the fha payment is still lower. I don’t advise that’s of course, because of the 1.75% yo front funding fee, but some buyers DGAF because that ain’t cash from them today and it’s a lower payment tomorrow, and they don’t care about their equity position.
  16. Usually shitty credit and also needs to put enough money down to hit DTI. I've done a handful for sure, but pretty unusual. Or- if you have a manual underwrite...
  17. Mostly right. If an FHA buyer puts down 20% then the MI will get dropped after 11 or 12 years- something like that. Now- how many FHA buyers put down 20%? Very very very few- like less than 5% I would bet.
  18. I woke up this morning, looked at the market, said son of a fucking bitch and then from my bathroom my 9 year old was like- language daddy. This economy is doing so well we need higher rates.
  19. Trump 312 or so to 226- 53 GOP Senate- who the fuck knows in the house. That's my prognostication. Go look at my Georgia prediction for that game to see how well I can see the future
  20. Your boss is exceedingly bad at handicapping (in my opinion) and I will line up as much as he wants to put money on the other side of what he thinks is going to happen on the election. That being said- I think that sort of points toward the point you are making about how little consensus there is on what comes next. We will see in 2 weeks the start of a consensus building one way or another I'm sure as to what's next.
  21. Texas loses in humiliating fashion in the biggest home game we've played in at least 15 years Interest rates up 3/4 of a point since the fed lowered the rate last month when everyone thought it was going to get better Yankees and Dodgers playing for a World Series title after we lost in 2 to the Tigers. Kill me now. I hate sports ball. I hate life. I mean- not really- but wish I had not gotten out of bed today, I think.
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