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Reagan1k

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Reagan1k

  1. Exactly why testing with real Monte Carlo simulation is so crucial. It’s human nature to view what’s recent as long term, but real simulations incorporate longer periods (historically relevant) of low to negative returns. That sequence of return is far different than our recent experiences of rapid cyclical bear market recovery. Shit can take time and even a decade or more to recover. Considering a retirement may span 30-40 years or more…. Those secular bear and bull markets must be considered and tested against with entrance and exit throughout the retirement cycle. Thats part of the case for bonds in the portfolio of a 40-50 year old with retirement still 15-20 years out. If we enter a secular bear market tomorrow, a 100% equity portfolio would be tough to swallow when eyeing retirement in 2040 for instance. Plans would change. Another gotcha that’s a risk is the dominance of a few names in many of the indexes that ETFs and mutual funds hold or mirror. A lot of inventors have FAR more exposure to a few tech-ish names than they realize. Not saying it’s bad, but many don’t realize they have 25-30% of their money invested in a handful of stocks via weighted indexes and overlapping funds.
  2. Both the Lowes grocery store and Buttery Hardware in Llano sell ammunition already. Seems reasonable for placement. Central Market on Westheimer - not so much.
  3. These are two different discussions being cobbled together. 1) is it a good business model? Maybe in a very limited, narrow market. As @TwiceHorn said - bait shop, rural hardware store, some other appropriate place as a gimmick. That’s discussion A 2) Is it going to be abused by criminal element? All these scenarios of mannequin heads and hackers seem to miss the key element- No one is stopping the criminal element from walking in and buying a box of shell manually anyway. Your scenarios are akin to hardening security around copper tubing sales to prevent Cletus from moonshining to get his booze fix. He doesn’t need to build a still. He can walk next door and buy his bottle from Jacks liquor, or ask his brother to. Ammunition is not some rare, guarded commodity requiring a Dirty Dirty Dozen or Oceans 11 plot to acquire. You’re over complicating this. Do you see organized crime syndicates devising ways to help 17 year olds get lottery tickets from the machines in grocery stores? No - not necessary- just buy them or send someone to buy face to face.
  4. We might all agree on that!!!
  5. Yep- and you’re right. I was foolish thinking underlined facts might help.
  6. What’s different? It ain’t a quarter operated coke machine. Lots of wasted words creating irrelevant scenarios. It’s a different interface - same or even higher scrutiny and data capture than face to face cash at counter. May be dumb but isn’t a game charger for the criminal element. But don’t let reality get in the way of outrage…. When a customer approaches the vending machine, they must agree to terms on the screen, select their desired type of bullets, insert an identification card and participate in a facial scan. Customers have to be 21 years of age or older to purchase bullets from American Rounds’ vending machines. After the facial recognition is confirmed, a customer can swipe or insert their credit or debit card and then wait for their ammunition to be dispensed.
  7. You rang......? And yea.....todays 10mm ain't what Norma 1st dropped on the market back then. But, y'all are correct... Buffalo Bore makes a stinger. I think the perceived advantage of the 10 right now in bear country in the round count and shootability / getting more shots back on target. At least that's the concept. Once you pass a certain level of penetration, I don't think it's what you hit them with necessarily but where and the more wheres you can hit......the great chance of success. That bear the M&P stopped was already leaking from at least two rifle shots when it charged. That helps - regardless of backup gun caliber.
  8. Lots of small town grocery, convenience, and hardware stores already sell ammunition. Solution looking for a problem.
  9. Yeah- Harvey was a product of what surrounded it and got stuck in idle during a weather traffic jam.
  10. Ditto. Hell, my pig shooter 300BO pistol is a PSA. It goes bang. If I was dependent on it for my life everyday I wouldn't want it, but to bang around in the truck and fire 2-3 shots here or there, it works and was cheap. LPVO on top if it is the only real value I have in it. Just match the tool to the chore with ARs and you won't be disappointed or have financial regrets.
  11. Douche made sure to flex his shaved quad when the FBI was photographing his tattoos. “fortune favors the bold.”
  12. And I’m first on the list to admit that seems simplistic and callous - but facts are most alcoholics end up in jails, institutions, or dead while trying to answer that question and deciding if they’re ready for AA or recovery. Normal drinkers don’t ponder questions about whether they need to go to AA or what type of alcoholic they may be. His gut is telling him there’s a problem and his mind (disease / dis-ease) is telling him to form a research committee as a stall tactic.
  13. Yeah- if it’s a problem in his life and he can’t stop, stay stopped. and be reasonably happy in life…. Don’t stand around talking about how the mule got in the ditch….just work on getting him out.
  14. If we’re spending your money I might as well suggest a VM-22 and customize from there.
  15. House she didn't know about, no compromise pre-nup presented that was different than had been agreed among others.
  16. Wife and I have a friend in Italy right now attending the Lake Como wedding expensive party of a woman she worked with. Bride woman discovered some serious red flags in former fiance a couple of months back. Had to call it off and cease contact with him. All that shit was already paid and non-refundable at this point so they're just proceeding with the party for those that had flights and still wanted to come. Father of the bride has money to burn I guess to even allow for the planning of a multi-six figure event and said fuck-it....might was well make the best of a shitty situation.
  17. Yep - and depending on how you prepare, you can change the glycemic index of a particular rice. Reheated frozen or refrigerated white rice has a lower impact than fresh cooked. Rice study Lots of rabbit holes to explore.
  18. Some people are gross and self centered enough to think they're owed all that. I'd bet significant funds that particular one is a fake to drive clicks that a news outlet stumbled into. But, I can promise you somewhere there's a bride (or groom) really thinking about hitting send on a similar message in real life. They'll hit delete and then carry on being insufferable in some other way.
  19. Good for you. We probably should have a Longevity thread on here somewhere.
  20. Clemishire told WFAA that though her family forgave him, they never supported Morris returning to the ministry. “I think leaders can get caught up and think it’s our responsibility to protect God and it’s not. Our responsibility is to protect the people,” she added. “God is bigger than all of that.” I agree with the victim here especially on the last part, but I think she's giving the leaders too much credit. They aren't trying to protect God. They're trying to protect their own base of power and access to victims. God and the key principles of fundamental spirituality seldom if ever enter their consciousness.
  21. Yep - All those. I buy a shit-ton of ammunition. It's useful today, provides security for tomorrow (from scarcity) and holds its value. All those site and many others are worth a look. My experience is that most of the time, the biggest value is making sure you're getting free shipping and aren't required to pay sales tax, wherever you are. Don't step over a dollar to pick up a dime. Look for the freight and tax terms most advantageous to your situation 1st, and then start comparing cost per round. Those two factors are bigger savings than any differential retail pricing between vendors.
  22. Commentary from SG Ammo. He’s pretty transparent on his pricing. It is a buyer's market for ammo with prices cut to the bone these days. It would be wise to stock up while demand is down, and profit margins are under 10%. One of the funny things I have observed in my 23+ years in this business is that most consumers do not buy when demand and prices are down and wait for prices to go back up before purchasing. This is all part of a market cycle, and like all cycle’s things change, often quickly and unexpectedly. Don't be the person that waited to buy when demand and prices to spike.
  23. In spite of this, the summer price slump is here and prices have trended lower in the past several weeks at the retail level. That will be temporary. We're going to get the confluence of component scarcity, the election, and the fall demand. Today may be as good as it gets for some time.
  24. PREACH!!!!! An 8' stringer in that water is like tying a chum bucket to your thigh. That tug will gather all of your attention rather quickly.
  25. Since we're gathered around the campfire telling stories, I always known that the gulf beaches had a lot more sharks in and around swimmers than most folks would like to believe. Then I got a chance to ride shotgun in one of those ultralights that you see buzzing up and down the surf. A retired Eastern Airlines pilot lived and flew daily out there and took me up. I was slack-jawed at times, especially around Pensacola pass on an outgoing tide. I remember telling my wife that I thought every shark in the gulf must be compressed within 300 yards of the beach. Even thinking "I knew"........the amount was staggering, and the number of BIG sharks was amazing. That may be a way to deal with the crowds down there going forward - Just broadcast some drone footage when clarity is good and bait has migrated towards the beach.
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