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statsman

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Everything posted by statsman

  1. Lula, Ortega and Diaz-Canel are showing who they are.
  2. I have a dumb car, so windshield was inexpensive. $100 and a little over one hour. Went to the place my insurance agent likes.
  3. Sure, but one think the leaked docs showed- we can intercept communications like nobody’s business, even if we can’t keep them secret. If China sells arms to Russia, we’ll know.
  4. Same reason Bradley/Chelsea Manning, Ed Snowden and Reality Winner had access. We’re not very good at securing info.
  5. I got laid off last October (design manager in Aerostructures firm that was dropping engineering) and started new job a couple of weeks later. Saw the layoff coming, networked hard and managed the transition. Severance package was good- six months pay, pro-rated 15% bonus. The employee severance policy states that they can stop it if you hire on with a company they “partner” with, and aerospace is very inbred, so I’ve kind of ghosted most of the people I worked with (not many of them left there). Six months is almost up, so I guess I can update LinkedIn soon. I went from being a manager to being an individual contributor on new job. That’s harder than I thought- learning a lot of new systems seems to be easier for the younger guys. Did you guys know they don’t really use Fortran anymore? I’ve upped the coffee intake- I don’t get to set the pace now. Also, I’ve usually worked for large aerospace companies that considered mass layoffs to be a failure of management planning. The new place looks at mass layoffs as if they were colonoscopies- generally unpleasant experiences that are periodically necessary for overall general good health. I’m not crazy about that. I need about nine more years. I’m not sure I’ll get it all here. I’m not sure I want to. Career thinking is over- hey, I managed a design team on a major aerospace program, already. This is just a job now.
  6. So, we know: 1. Ukraine really is in a tough spot wrt munitions. Russia knows it, too. 2. our information security sucks. Our allies know it, too. 3. Ukraine’s supporters’ actions show that they are not as committed as rhetoric indicates. Ukraine can win, I believe, even if “winning” is defined as getting back to pre-2014 borders. However, they are wholly dependent on munitions and aid from supporters. I believe Ukraine can win, but I don’t believe “just enough” help “just in time” will do the job. We really need, before the next election cycle starts up, to go all in, and set up new production lines to ensure Ukraine can have all the armament it wants and more. In war, sometimes, too much is just enough. Don’t give Russia any hope that they can wait this out. I fear that bad news (or even mixed news) this spring will wear away at support (the US public is notoriously fickle with short attention spans). More, and now, please.
  7. Suns/Clippers could be fun. All the shit talking I’ve done about Westbrook, all the fanboy posting I’ve done about KD… I thought KD really wanted to maintain a friendship with Russ after leaving, and Russ was having none of it. How does that manifest now? Does Russ still have a beef (I bet he does). Do we get the best or worst versions of these guys?
  8. What does this mean? Are they not allowed to enter? Highly unusual, and probably not per the rules, but maybe they can let that reporter go and then get in.
  9. I did some research, and it does indeed appear that if I use this deduction, I do have to do the depreciation, which means (a small percent) of capital gains comes into play when the house is sold. Which most likely will be done by our heirs, either after we die or before we are put into assisted living. I’ll just start filling out the form and see how bad it is, and weigh the consequences.
  10. I’m rubber, and you’re glue. Anything you say bounces off me and sticks to you.
  11. My wife is a realtor (has been for anlmost 30 years) and has a home office. I do the taxes. We never claimed the office as a deduction, initially because doing so used to attract audits (I understand that’s not the case anymore). This year, I’m looking for every deduction I can. Couple of questions: 1. I understand that claiming depreciation from the home office can cause cause capital gain taxes when home is sold (otherwise, it would probably be our one time capital gains exemption). Can we deduct all expenses but skip deducting depreciation? 2. We remodeled about 65% of the house at an expense total of around $250,000. The home office was completely redone- floor, walls, trim, lights. Can we deduct that as part of our expense? Thanks for any help, or pointing I. The right direction for research
  12. France blocking EU weapons aid to Ukraine- https://news.yahoo.com/polish-media-claims-france-blocking-082607662.html Did Macron promise Xi that he would do this for him? France is always looking out for France, you can bet on that.
  13. Thanks. US special forces in country, not doing army things, but rather doing Embassy protection stuff in an embattled ally’s Capitol.
  14. I kind of figured the deal was that- in exchange for help from Iran, Russia will help the mullahs get nukes.
  15. Does anyone disagree that the PRC is actually a fascist state now? I think it shows how close fascism and communism are, in that the PRC could easily pivot there by instituting some market reforms and de-emphasizing support for an international socialist revolution.
  16. Question- how were the questions about individuals seeking happiness through wealth graded? I don’t think it’s a good idea, but I don’t feel it’s my place to tell other people what should make them happy.
  17. 26% Believing that the masses are idiots and at the same time believing learned experts involved in government do a greater harm than the masses is not a contradiction to me. I agree with about 98% of what Mencken wrote (everything but the anti-semitism).
  18. Oh, and to be clear- she was really helping us out by putting us on that flight. Our scheduled flight out, requiring a transfer in Boston, was delayed five hours, meaning we would probably be spending the night in Boston. She put us on a direct flight to DFW; it just requires us to hustle to the gate ASAP in order to not miss it. I think I love France, even though it can drive me crazy b
  19. (Brief thread sidetrack) nations have different personalities. 14 years ago, flying back from Paris, in a crowded Orly, the French ticketing agent booked us on a flight that had only 15 minutes left to board, which was surely against all the rules. We had to run after getting through security, but we made it. The French don’t really see any point in rules that don’t help. Everyone agreed that there was no way in hell that would have happened in Germany.
  20. Yeah. The Red Army committed plenty of atrocities going west in WWII. (The Germans called the Berlin Red Army monument the “Tomb of the Unknown Rapist”), but I always figured that was tit for tat, an understandable reaction to seeing their families slaughtered by the Nazis. Now, I second guessing that. Maybe they’re just as bad as the Nazis.
  21. Here’s what to know about the Pentagon’s purported classified-document leak https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-leak-classified-intelligence-documents-takeaways-6dd576b8?st=cy7fvwlqp16wtp2&reflink=share_mobilewebshare I know nobody wants to discuss the leak, and what it suggests about the Ukrainian counteroffensive (that it will be ineffective due to lack of air defense). If Ukraine really falters, I would like to see the US drop the half measures and go into a wartime production rate for shells and Patriot batteries and missiles.
  22. I guess it’s not as much fun discussing how Ukraine’s air defense can run out of munitions in May, with far too few Patriots in replacement, setting up a scenario where Russia can have air superiority, and deliver more accurate bombardments of Ukrainian positions. It’s also not fun to think that there could be accurate privileged Russian info in the docs, setting up our assets in Russia for arrests and executions. It’s more fun to imagine that it’s all a feint, and that we have in actuality given Ukraine what they need to overwhelm the Russians and have this all finished by early summer.
  23. Well, either it’s a psyops release, or a gamer with a TS clearance got in an online argument on a gaming message board and decided to share all that info to win the argument. Which is more plausible? I’m about 60:40 leaning to the latter.
  24. About that air defense- Ukraine may run out of air defenses by May, leaked Pentagon documents warn https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655?st=tps2ggf6ebqrrey&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  25. The document leak- is it a real leak or psyops? I think we’ll know by how well supplied Ukraine is with munitions. A common theme of the documents, echoed by Zelensky in his discussions with the west, is the Ukrainian need for more ammunition. If the offensive struggles for lack of munitions, is the Ukrainians have to ration air defense and artillery munitions, then we can probably figure the docs are legit. If (and I really hope this is the case) Ukraine busts loose on their offensive and have a full supply of munitions to fire, we can probably attribute the leaked docs as psyops.
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