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statsman

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Everything posted by statsman

  1. Well, either it’s a psyops release, or a gamer with a TS clearance got in an online argument on a gaming message board and decided to share all that info to win the argument. Which is more plausible? I’m about 60:40 leaning to the latter.
  2. About that air defense- Ukraine may run out of air defenses by May, leaked Pentagon documents warn https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655?st=tps2ggf6ebqrrey&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  3. The document leak- is it a real leak or psyops? I think we’ll know by how well supplied Ukraine is with munitions. A common theme of the documents, echoed by Zelensky in his discussions with the west, is the Ukrainian need for more ammunition. If the offensive struggles for lack of munitions, is the Ukrainians have to ration air defense and artillery munitions, then we can probably figure the docs are legit. If (and I really hope this is the case) Ukraine busts loose on their offensive and have a full supply of munitions to fire, we can probably attribute the leaked docs as psyops.
  4. I will say this- I believe we (the US) have a better hacking capability than Russia. I believe that because, in 2018, the US shut down the internet in Russia- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-cyber-command-operation-disrupted-internet-access-of-russian-troll-factory-on-day-of-2018-midterms/2019/02/26/1827fc9e-36d6-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html -and there was nothing they could do about it. Now, Russia and China are more aggressive and active at using the internet as a weapon, but that doesn’t mean they are more capable at it. That also doesn’t mean we can’t have major leaks. Leaks are about sloppiness, often, and we can be very sloppy.
  5. I wish I could share your faith. However, I had a Secret clearance almost ten years ago, when the PRC PLA hacked the personnel files of all clearance holders (me included), and nobody in the DoD was punished or even lost their job. Since then, we have seen elected officials and career bureaucrats break rules repeatedly, wrt securing classified data, with little to no repercussions. Russia has even taken advantage of that, releasing faked documents before the 2016 election, that convinced Comey to take actions that led to the election of Trump. So, no, I would not be surprised if this was a real hack.
  6. I really, really hope this is what happened. The alternative means that all the plans have to be scrapped.
  7. I read the article. I see a couple of explanations- 1. The speaker tried to intentionally adopt a disinterested stance and was too candid. The truth is- several months ago (last summer) the WH did express a mild reproach to Zelensky’s manner. The WH has not done so again. Either the message was received or the WH has moved on. I think it’s a mistake to make too much of that- News Flash! The WH is not 100% happy with any world leader’s manner! And never has been! (Anyone care to speculate on what FDR might have said privately about Churchill’s theatrics?) 2. The speaker is one of those guys (there are a few and they are vocal on about every forum except this one) that really buy into the Russian agitprop. These are people that seek out that “inside knowledge” that the sheeple are too simple to pursue. They really believe that they are smarter than anyone else and you can’t argue with them. I’d be very surprised to learn that BoA buys into this.
  8. Shareable link: The Pentagon said it is reviewing posts on social media that purport to reveal highly classified U.S. government documents on Ukrainian preparations for a planned spring offensive against Russian forces https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-says-it-is-reviewing-social-media-posts-that-purport-to-reveal-classified-documents-on-ukraine-4d7524f?st=s48jpzo9gormaam&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  9. Anyone else old enough to remember Sooner message boards during the John Blake era? There was a strong sense of entro good football and a belief that the good athletes they recruited had to be good food players. Deja vu?
  10. From your lips to God’s ears. I remember what Schwarzkopf said- “The enemy gets a vote, too”. This is what I know about high level strategy- the way to win a narrow victory in an important fight is to prepare a plan to overwhelm the enemy. Bring a lot more and a lot faster to the fight. If you do that, you have a shot at a narrow win. Bringing enough to give you a good chance at a win will get you beat. I want Ukraine to win (especially since our president- and I am proud he did it- said that we are with them until the end. I want us to give them as much as they need, even if that is more than we can give them under current constraints.
  11. A wise man said, “You don’t go into proxy war with the proxy army you want; you go to proxy war with the proxy army you have”. Maybe we should increase production of artillery cannon.
  12. Well, Whelan has been in jail in Russia for five years, now. I guess they want more than we’re willing to pay. We kind of set the bar with the Griner deal. Mr. Gershkovich may be in jail for a very long time. It sounds like the NYT and WP are quietly bringing people out. I think the post above, that compared Putin to a mob boss, had it right. The alternative to overpaying for an exchange is for the US to find a way to hurt them more, and to step over the line doing it. Maybe give Ukraine some weapons we weren’t going to, draw a linkage, and explain that more can be coming. Or maybe grab some more oligarch assets. There was a reason that, 2,000 years ago, foreign states were careful with Roman citizens. The US could start thinking like Rome.
  13. Sure. They don’t have the air ability to fight like we do. Let’s get them the shells. It’ll be worth it.
  14. The WSJ had another story about the Bakhmut defenders needing shells. I wish we (the US) would increase shell production to where Ukraine could fling them around like a U.S. unit. This spring counter-offensive will probably tell the story for this war. It would be awful if it were to fail because of administration concerns about managing domestic artillery production.
  15. Shareable link A Russian economy that survived 2022 faces a long-term deep freeze. “There will be no money next year.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-starting-to-come-undone-431a2878?st=q7xi8020ugnipim&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  16. Simple googling shows that the WP, the NYT and the Times all have Moscow correspondents. My guess is the Kremlin bureau that covers them gave assurances that they would be protected, and those assurances proved to be worthless. I suspect the WSJ correspondent drew the short straw. I won’t be surprised if the others are withdrawn. Russia has gone full rogue nation
  17. Why do you say that? Is Washington signaling that they’re not prioriyhis release?
  18. Why do you say that? Did you read the WSJ article? Do you think he is staying in Russia against the will of his employer?
  19. Russia is moving closer and closer to North Korea status. Which may suit China fine.
  20. I heard that many of these school shooters become fascinated with Columbine. Although I value civil liberties and our bill of rights, I might could be convinced that a LE AI noting and flagging an individual’s excessive curiosity in Columbine is OK.
  21. I don’t believe the police knew that when they entered the building, and especially when they heard second floor shots fired and then went up the stairs. They knew there was a shooter, there were kids, and most likely the shooter intended to not be captured alive. They moved to engage as quickly and surely as possible. Courage is not being unafraid. Courage is doing your duty despite being afraid.
  22. I vote news. The truth just isn’t always our friend, but we have to live with it.
  23. I think any Uvalde police still in law enforcement should be required to attend a training event (observed by victims’ families) where they watch this video and explain what went right and wrong.
  24. Russia is helping Iran gain advanced digital-surveillance capabilities as Tehran seeks deeper cooperation on cyberwarfare, adding another layer to a burgeoning alliance https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-supplies-iran-with-cyber-weapons-as-military-cooperation-grows-b14b94cd?st=4zhikfo2pv9zh70&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
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