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statsman

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  1. Here is the shareable link to the WSJ story on the coming offensive- The outlines of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive against the Russian invasion are beginning to emerge, after months of weapons deliveries from the West https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-offensive-takes-shape-with-big-unknowns-2f75f5ae?st=lmcpojyeszho4rv&reflink=share_mobilewebshare Unpopular opinion, but the US’ reluctance to a real increase in defense spending is a big hindrance to getting this war won. If this offensive isn’t dramatically successful, I suspect the 2014 borders are going to be the very best Ukraine can get. I don’t trust our domestic politics (both parties).
  2. I think the odds are pretty good that Zelensky is telling the truth- Ukraine needs a lot more shells. They can’t produce them as needed and are dependent on the west, who allots them piecemeal.
  3. Ha-ha! Dad was a combat marksman (sniper) in Vietnam. He ran the sniper training school in the Mekong Delta (interesting educational institution; there was also an “Ambush school” and a “Tunnel Rat school”). He said that he was so sick of war stories where a guy says he was shot at by a sniper. “Bullshit! Those weren’t snipers! Know how to tell a sniper shot at you? You’re dead, that’s how you know!”
  4. Answered Gen. Mark Milley told Congress on Thursday that Iran would need only several months to build a nuclear weapon if Tehran opted to produce a bomb https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-produce-nuclear-weapon-in-several-months-if-it-decides-to-do-so-mark-milley-says-ecd38f07?st=u9ttynwoxoiaer4&reflink=share_mobilewebshare (Narrator): “They want to produce a bomb” Milley also said the US won’t allow them to field a nuclear weapon.
  5. Iran’s cozying with Sunni Syria is another example. How close are they to getting nukes? Before the Saudi-Iran cozying, I felt Israel had the green light on blowing up anything they needed to to stop Iran from getting nukes. Now, I’m not sure.
  6. The shareable link: Ukraine is facing challenges in raising the troops it needs to eject Russian forces from its territory https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-year-into-war-ukraine-faces-challenges-mobilizing-troops-64dcdc49?st=7yn18n5xffqa8a7&reflink=share_mobilewebshare I keep feeling that if Ukraine doesn’t “win” this year, it’s going to be settling for new borders. yes, Russia will be a pariah for a long time, but if Ukraine really wants a fresh start, it needs major progress this spring and summer
  7. Have all the nuke nations had to develop their weapon technology on their own, pretty much? I know that Russia had spies in the US program (Lavrenty Beria was the Soviet overseer), but the US was definitely not trying to help them. Did the nuclear powers pretty much tell their Allie’s trying to develop nukes, “you’re on your own, buddy”? The US knew Israel was developing nukes, and turned a blind eye to it, but we didn’t help, right? Did the USSR assist the PRC? Did the PRC assist NK? Thanks, and I’ll hang up and listen.
  8. You have more faith in the legendary Shia-Sunni intractability than I do.
  9. In 2020, Herman put out a team that had many team leaders for whom winning football games was of secondary (at best) importance, and it showed.
  10. Great question. The answer is, on this topic, he should follow the guidance and direction of his bosses- CDC, Hartzell and Eltife, the latter two actually working on this issue. If, in good conscience, he could not do that, he should have resigned.
  11. It was not Herman’s job to fix the school. He was the highest paid employee, but it just wasn’t his job. His job was to coach the football team.
  12. Nicole, I heard it different. I heard that things were affected by the split regents pressuring Powers. Mack had friends, a nd Powers didn’t want to fire him, because he needed friends. (I am pro-Powers, btw). I heard that Luck assumed Mack would go and we would make a run at Saban. Luck, however, did not want to be the one to fire Mack; he felt that should be done before he signed on. I heard the key part of Patterson’s interview was his signal to Powers that he would follow his lead. This explains the last weekend- Mack was staying until the biggest cigars told Powers he could stay but Mack had to go.
  13. I don’t know that Ukraine is losing that many trained troops there, but they are losing trainable troops. A couple of months ago (because Russia has been “on the verge” of taking Bakhmut for a while now), I linked a WSJ article that hinted that Ukraine was using raw troops in Bakhmut, and that raised a couple of eyebrows here. Since then, there have been more such hints. You have to wonder if the time and personnel would have been better spent in training. Maybe Ukraine thought Bakhmut would fall much quicker, and a short term tactic (use raw troops in its defense) became a long term strategy?
  14. Shareable link- Maternal mortality in the U.S. surged in 2021, pushing the rate to its highest level since 1965 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-maternal-mortality-hits-highest-level-since-1965-f9829776?st=jmkrsrheelaynd4&reflink=share_mobilewebshare you read the article and see that obesity is driving maternal deaths.
  15. Shareable WSJ link on Bakhmut The battle for Bakhmut is reaching a critical point as Russian forces close around the Ukrainian city like a vise https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrain...=os3830nhk1usavr&reflink=share_mobilewebshare The stated Ukrainian reason for fighting here is stupid. The Wagner penal troops will be non-factors in any real counteroffensive. They’re not trained and are useful only for attriting Ukrainian troops and munitions. Russia will never miss them. Their mothers might not even miss them. The Ukrainian counteroffensive will need to be fast, and use superior artillery and mobile armor. Recent Russian conscripts and penal troops will not be able to move fast enough to be factors. It sounds like Ukraine is attriting their own troops and doing Russia a favor by giving their career criminals death sentences.
  16. 1. I don’t get the anger over the article. More info and more thorough analyses are good, right? I certainly have plenty of biases in my worldview (you could call me a “right wing reactionary” and I would take it as a compliment), but this will work out however it works out and I’m too old to start fighting facts. 2. Tell me more about these “raccoon dogs”. I have long contended that a carnivorous raccoon that hunted in packs would be the world’s second most deadly predator (after mankind).
  17. I think college football could end up looking like EPL soccer, with the CFP being the equivalent of the Wembley FA Cup (every English professional team, no matter how low the division, gets to compete in a nationwide single elimination tournament). I won’t be surprised when the B12, ACC and PAC institute salary caps in a few years. Why would they? Because most of the teams don’t want one school, say Baylor, to have a mega rich alum decide to outspend everyone else.
  18. Well, Lula is buddies with most of the new axis. (years ago, I joked with a Brazilian colleague, asking if his country was competing with the US to see who can have the most screwed up politics)
  19. In “Democracy in America”, Tocqueville explains why armies of democracies improve as wars progress, as promotions are made on merit, not political or familial connections. We saw this in WWII (as well as other wars), where the US got its ass whipped at Kasserine Pass. The general in charge screwed it up badly, and was quietly reassigned to the states. Better leaders were promoted (guys like Patton, out of place in a peacetime army, got their chance in war). It shouldn’t be a surprise for Ukraine to have flawed leaders. It’s what they do with them that matters. Zelensky needs to find a military leader whose judgment he can trust, and fast. Civilian leaders tend to make awful strategic decisions. (FDR had Marshall, Churchill had Alanbrooke and Stalin had Zhukov, and that made all the difference).
  20. I can see why Arizona and ASU might wait a while. Things change. Honestly, I am surprised the B12 looks more solid than the PAC, even after USC and UCLA bolted. what does the PAC have going against it? Not demographics- there are a bunch of people in PAC cities (except Corvallis, Pullman and Eugene). There are a lot of people in California and Arizona is really growing. It’s not lack of recruits. (Although USC and UCLA are doing the same dirty trick TAMu did- letting another conference have a major foothold in local recruiting). Also, they own half of the Rise Bowl game, and U doubt their partner to the east wants to let that drop, especially now that it reinforces California recruiting. It’s a lack of viewers and fan support. Is that an endemic problem? Or temporary? I know TCU was left out of the B12 in large part for lack of fan support in the ‘70s, ‘80s and ‘90s. They worked to fix that and made strides. If the PAC were to have a “come to Jesus” meeting, based on the idea that unless they fix this, their futures are either in the B12 (and you know ASU wants to trade road trips to San Hose for trips to Stillwater😂), or the Mountain West. One thing they could do is schedule like the SEC. No, not the November FCS games, the September league games. This is something the B12 schools, all following the Snyder program model, won’t do. Give the network an attractive game in week 1 and 2. If you get Cal and Stanford to promote, too, you’ve got something. They’ve done it before. A lot can change in a few years, with the right actions. It did for the B12. And, if they don’t want to change, we’ll, there’s no helping them.
  21. Ok, agree or disagree? A program’s attractiveness to other conference is based much more on width and depth of fan support than in recent competitiveness. Example 1: Miami won four or five MNCs over a 20 year span, yet they are not one of the most desired programs. Example 2: Texas hasn’t done shit in 15 years, yet is very desired. This is why I doubt Oregon gets to dictate anything and why Clemson and FSU aren’t the big swinging ducks many think they are.
  22. Shareable link to WSJ article on Russian supply issues- https://www.wsj.com/articles/acute-artillery-shortage-is-hampering-russias-offensive-in-east-ukraine-western-officials-say-6f2fb94a?st=1l9fdim9nis9y3o&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
  23. Right now, that’s not the problem. Right now, the problem is that there isn’t enough to load onto those ships.
  24. That’s great, but we’ve got to get them there. They need them there, right now, because as the WSJ article explains- good Ukrainian troops are dying, and they aren’t fighting as effectively as they could, because they lack the ammunition. They are rationing it. And “we’ve” got to get it to them, because we announced our support. Their loss is our loss, now, and this would be a really crappy time to lose to Russia, for lots of reasons.
  25. I’m trying not to overthink this- Ukraine needs ammunition and armament. Ukraine cannot produce or buy ammunition and armament. Ukraine needs for Uncle Sam to give them ammunition and armament. If the US doesn’t, Ukraine loses. Now, that analysis is simple. The hard part is- getting the needed ammunition and armament to Ukraine. Counting on German promises is a bad plan. Counting on Swiss cooperation is a bad plan. Counting on NATO to pull together out of shared benefit is a bad plan. Am I wrong to see this as binary- Ukraine gets what they need to win, this year, or they don’t?
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