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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. This is a relatively long article on how the Poland/MIG/F-16 deal fell through, but well-written: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/poland-fighter-jet-deal-ukraine-russia-00016038 sorta tl;/dr: 1) Ukraine pleading for more aircraft 2) Negotiations began between Poles (when they offered a deal) and a few other NATO countries. 3) But, EU foreign affairs sec./foreign policy chief Josep Borrell opened mouth 2/28 and said, "we got us a DEAL here." But it wasn't yet.** 4) Ukraine ran with it, partly out of hope, partly "cat's outta the bag" pressure to provide. 5) Poland, Slovakia and Romania (all sources for the MIG's) knocked it down and cited that they won't enter Ukrainian airspace to deliver them 3/2. 6) Enter U.S. with that complex "MIG's to Ukraine, F-16's to Poland" potential deal 3/3. 7) Deal seemed to have legs, but then quickly halted, mostly due to U.S. military experts' fears. (F-16's WAY too high-tech even for Poland and they didn't want them having that tech so close to Russia, plus the biggie - supplying a NATO country with these to be taken into Ukraine = ramping up to war.) 8 ) U.S. tells Poland though, go ahead and send MIGS if u want... however the F-16's we'll give you will take months to deliver (needs a lot of vetting). 9) Poland a bit irritated, then offered the 28 MIG's to Rammstein, where Ukrainian pilots would travel, pick up, and fly into Ukraine. 10) U.S. caught by surprise for that, still said too much U.S. involvement (use of U.S. base) = ramping up, plus Scholz said, "no, not in Germany you won't"). 11) U.S. military experts said nix it, Poles were out of order, and it's too much of an escalation. Encouraged Poles to deliver as they might/could. 12) Tensions got a little tense, Harris sent over to kind of smooth things out. ** It's worth noting that a deal might have been doable in secret ("how did those MIG's get there?") if Borrell didn't shoot his mouth off too quickly.
  2. In Austin suburbs within 20 miles (which is most of us in ATX area): Sat. - about 4 a.m. - 9 a.m. or so Sun. - (most people won't freeze, but those who do...) about 5 a.m.- 9 a.m. I've had longer freezes where I didn't bother with pipes, and was fine, but I'm leaving town on Friday a.m. so I'll prep 'em just in case. Normally I'd probably just leave a faucet dripping and not even bother with wrapping, since Sat and Sun are going to be sunny - the sun will heat things up fast. Like I said, nuthin' much at all here.
  3. More like a toot. Sat. dawn to about Sat. noon. Then for some in suburbs/hill country, Sun. about the same (city should be > freezing). Then poof. Friday into Saturday will be cold, but nothing like even the colder blasts this year. It'll be a "calm cold", that is clearing overnight Sat. and no precip, Sat will be sunny and almost 60°. About 70° Sun., and off into the 70's all next week. Frankly, this is nuthin'.
  4. Good point on the bolded. I had wanted to post that at some point during this thread and kept forgetting. Russia has an overwhelming superiority of tactical nukes.
  5. You seem to have an edited copy. Here's the original:
  6. Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Commander of NATO, was just on and he said the exact same things as Petraeus. That while these Ukraine victories over Russia are welcome and wonderful things, in the long run it's actually what you said -that Russia's playbook is to grind it out and use their superior numbers while they turn a lot of Ukrainian cities into rubble. That's what's going to happen and I don't know the solution to stopping it except Rush's own complete collapse. However, if things go worse for Russia and Putin sees no other resort, he'll use nukes - it's hard coded into their strategy. And yes, I think their nukes are formidable. Because the generals and knowledge people I've read think they are. That with nukes, there's not a lot of room for ineptitude like the conventional war so far. My opinions aren't necessarily the generals', and like you I would love to see something done. But tese guys know far better than me what's happening and they're all saying these things to prevent worldwide calamity. This is a war unlike any in history, and over 80 years since a country as powerful has initiated aggression. The only thing I would add is I think it's pretty clear that if Putin directly tangles with a NATO country unprovoked, or attacks one, unfortunately it's on on a global scale and we're all in and I don't think there's much deliberation there and I think North Korea and China absolutely definitely know that and can see that, that's why China is being so guarded in their public statements. Nukes will be used, probably tactical and more locally destructive. This isn't about punishing Russia, this is about saving the world now, and involves the most nuclear-armed country on the planet. I certainly respect your opinion and many people feel that way, that we just can't stand back, but I also can see it being 20 times worse than it is now, affecting most of the planet once the buttons start getting pushed. It's not a good choice, I understand. For now I'll stick with the pain of having to restrain effective attacks and hopefully coming up with a strategy to get this done. I would not want to be a general right now. We've really never been this close to military-induced catastrophe. Certainly it's worth being careful before we take the leap. Once we take it, we will see nuclear war.
  7. I just listened to Gen. Petraeus on Fox say throw out the history book an all analogies in the past, this one is different because of nuclear weapons. And he was talking specifically about not getting Putin backed into a corner so much that he uses n, because he will and it's not even a Putin thing, it's a Russian military playbook go-to procedure, and has been for decades. That makes it even easier for Putin to use it because it's not purely him but the policy. Not only would No Fly likely usher that in, but Petraeus was even talking like we can't completely annihilate Putin in Russia, but keep an opt-out strategy open for him, because he will absolutely use nukes when he feels he has no other option. Imagine the fun trying to walk that tightrope if you're a Western general.
  8. Shackleton's story is maybe the most fantastic for human endurance I've ever come across. However, maybe it's not so epic... this is a picture of his wife: Nothing personal, but might explain why he was so desperate to repeatedly get to the farthest end of the earth away from civilization - at any cost.
  9. What do you mean "your" wife? Isn't that everybody's? PoP means % of likelihood that it'll rain at least .01 on you for the forecast period. It also means that % of the forecast area that it is expected to rain, i.e. 40% Austin rain chance means that it's definitely gonna rain at least .01" in 40% of the area the NWS puts Austin in. In other words, no one knows anything.
  10. Something like this: Discuss and get back to me. Be sure to show your work.
  11. Holy shit, it's Gozer the Gozarian! Back again!
  12. With apologies to Shady Ray, and as a novice speaker myself, I've heard the best description of German as the perfect language to know and utter when you're taking a painful, gassy toilet shit.
  13. My guess is those aren't the Ford Raptor F-150 version but more the basic sedan with few features and those tiny hubcaps which only cover the lug nuts.
  14. I'm hearing increasing number of reports on close and even hand to hand combat around Kiev and other cities, this an article from some French source, not sure how valid but it seems okay. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20220307-hand-to-hand-combat-street-battles-rage-on-kyiv-s-edgeespv=1 Irpin (Ukraine) (AFP) – Street battles and hand-to-hand combat. Ukrainian servicemen and fleeing residents described ferocious fighting on Kyiv's northwestern edge Monday that could soon spread to the besieged capital. ADVERTISING
  15. Plus the Mongols only had about 600 people and a bunch of yaks.
  16. Wife's co. (Apple something or other, maybe you've heard of it) is doing 2-for-1 matches for employees. So we did UNICEF (a good charity for kids esp.) and a refugee org. that gives necessities at the Polish and Romanian borders. We're open for using our empty nest to house some refugees, but (fortunately, I think) so many Euros are offering their places (not to mention AirBB) that most of the 3-4 million predicted can easily be absorbed into the continent, and within reasonable distance of returning if/when things get better; probably most won't need to go all the way over to us unless they have family or something. Still, we got plenty of room, and no I'm not offering sanctuary to members of the Ukrainian Synchronized Swim team, Though it's a nice thought.
  17. China ----------------------- Russia
  18. Only if it's sternly worded.
  19. I know people are gonna find this incredibly difficult to believe, but the Russians didn't show up.
  20. We have a friend who runs a disability center in Kharkiv, who (as if things aren't bad enough) is in the States currently because her father died. She called over and the people there say that if you step outside, you'll be fired at/shot. They're okay in the house, but are running short of supplies. The Russians have allowed one bakery down the street to open and give families one loaf - one - per day. Plus this lady has disabled men (not sure if vets or what) to care for. Tragedy doesn't even cover it. Yeah, I think this "humanitarian" gesture is just an excuse to take target practice to an extent.
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