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Thiefery

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by Thiefery

  1. man I'm getting the grimm outlook on the medical coding industry for 2020 now that CMS has halted Audits til next year.. meanwhile it's business as usual for the outsourced Indian companies who are coding charts.. Why do we even have HIPAA for?

  2. 32 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

    I'm not saying it is likely or that it certaintly will happen. I just wanted to point out that it isn't off the rails crazy to think it could happen.

    Personally, I want Texas in the B1G. Let's go to 4 18-team conferences. KU, Texas, Stanford & Cal to the B1G. 

    No, thank you.

    • Like 5
    • Haha 1
  3. 5 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Yeah the big issue with streaming with live sports is they are live. Netflix rarely has anything being watched concurrently in a massive volume, just lots of different things that are in various stages of delivery, which taxes the system less.  If you streamed Game of Thrones at it peak, during episode launch the HBO ap would fail, or you'd get the spinning disk of go get a drink while you wait.   No one wants to wait on live events though so streaming has always been hit or miss on live sports.

    Amazon has been doing a lot of work with the NFL on this and ESPN has been dumping tons into its app over the past few years to solve this problem.   Once this is fully stable then cable channels will start to evaporate.

    Another massive change that doesn't get talked about a lot is that all ratings for cable viewership are estimated.   No one exactly knows how many do, they aren't tracking who turns it on or off or when.   They rely on people filling out viewing logs and then statistically model what was watched when.

    Apps, however, know exactly who is watching, when, for how long.   This is going to drastically change how rights are valued.   On the negative side, if only 1M people streamed your game, instead of 1.8m estimated via a cable channel, its far more accurate and you'd be paid less for that.   On the plus side, advertisers currently value on reach and frequency, now they can use that and engagement, which could increase it.  Google is worth billions due to targeted advertising and has made YouTube personalities millionaires with it.   

    Odds are that, outside the game itself, this is all going to look a lot different over the next decade.

    We watched the final season of GOT live through the HBO GO app on my PS4 rather than the HBO on Fios.  The picture was clearer and the closed captioning was much better than the standard outdated block lettering verizon fios offers. We never had any issues watching the episodes live each week.

    Also, as a boxing head, we were told that PPVs were higher to us consumers because the cable companies took half of the price off the top. the remainder was for the promoters and boxers on the card.  Does verizon get that advertising money that is shown on ESPN?  or does it go straight to ESPN?  Because if there is a cut there, ESPN could make more money selling advertising on an app instead, no?  so if only 1 mil watch okie light vs wv on a saturday night on the ESPN plus, who cares if NBC drew 800k more viewers televising ND vs Indiana?

  4. 3 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    Eh, once he committed he kept his head down and didn't screw around or cause drama. The guys that treat it like a job aren't really the most likely portalers (unless they're down on the depth chart).

    It's those OOS mercenaries like that LB they're after who punched his teacher that you have to watch out for.

    If he doesn't see the field or ball thrown to him much this coming season, think he would be very tempted to hit the portal in December or early in 2021.  I would take him in a heartbeat.

  5. 10 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    I think OU is locked in through 24-25 too, like the rest of the content except LHN.   And they did it because the Big 12 wanted more for the CCGs they were selling.   Originally ESPN paid a premium higher than any other conference at over $30m, but they did that to get rid of the clause that they had to pay the Big 12 the same for content if they added teams.   So they weren't willing to go that high again.   They did, however, want content for ESPN+.   So they did a little of both.   

    Also I think ESPN plus is still experimenting with it's app model to see if it's comparable to the ACC or SEC network it has.  For all the whining about apps, this past month has shown how easy it is to watch content through apps.  If it weren't for the LHN and premium channels, I too would be canceling my Fios cable deal.  One good thing Verizon has done, however, is that it carries a netflix, youtube channel.  You sign in your info when you tune into it, then you can switch back and forth like a regular channel.  Be nice for them to do an ESPN plus, DAZN, Fox go channel like that as well.

  6. 23 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:
      Hide contents

    Ryan Brauninger

    5:37p 

    Staff

    Managed to pick up a few notes over the weekend.

    - Howell posted a note about new offer Jerrell Boykins a little bit ago, and a Louisiana source indicated to me that the Aggies were likely the first in line on an upcoming stream of big time offers. His tape is outstanding, and tape goes a long, long way no with no eval period. It was good for A&M that they made the move early. His year at Katy Paetow and family ties to Texas means the Aggies will likely hang around on this one for a while according to my contact. 

    - I was told by a southeast Texas source that the Aggies remain in rather consistent contact with 2022 LSU commit Bryce Anderson. If you're asking me now, I think the Tigers will have to really work to hang on to both Anderson and Bryan Allen in that class. I've been told by more than one person that Allen committed completely out of the blue. I'd bet good money that A&M stays after both safety prospects for a while.

    - A pair of out of state safeties in the class of 2021 spoke with Mike Elko at length last week. Beggs (OK) product Kendal Daniels has been high on A&M's board since the beginning of the cycle. He and the Aggie DC have talked rather consistently since the Aggies offered in early February. Also, Tallahassee (FL) standout Terrion Arnold is another highly rated safety prospect that is still a possibility in this class. He spoke with Elko last week, as well. While both will be tough to rip from their hometown schools (OU and Florida St), they're clearly still listening to what the Aggies are selling as we head into the summer. 

    - Had an East Texas media source tell me there's buzz in his area that the Aggies lead for Landon Jackson. I don't believe there's anything imminent though, and this one could have some see-saws to it once the restrictions are lifted and Jackson starts to take visits again.

    - A Houston area source tells me that Alabama and Georgia have both turned the heat up on Atascocita TE Landen King. Based on other intel I've gathered, I'd highly suspect the Aggies to do the same this week, as well. King is rapidly moving up a lot of recruiting boards across the region. Like I said with Billy and Jason a couple of weeks ago, I could see him turning into this cycle's Wydermyer. 

    - Lastly, don't count out Lucedale (MS) ATH MJ Daniels when talking about possibilities for A&M. The former teammate of McKinnley Jackson remains in communication with the A&M staff and has seen his stock rise recently. He's being recruited at both WR and DB, but I've heard A&M views him as a corner. 

     

     

    Reading IT and Roach confidence in Jackson ending up in Austin, while Braunringer saying Jackson is leaning to them according to his ETX source, gives me hope to be let down.

  7. 4 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Yeah I agree with that second section.   I think the Pac 12 needs to sell the PACN, if it can find a carrier willing at this point.   Not only could it give an influx of cash from the sale, but work carriage deals better than Scott.   Along those lines, consolidate from 5 to 1, and push 30% of the inventory to T2 and I think you'll start to catch up a bit.   I don't really classify either the old Big12s or these changes for the Pac as "help" though, its not altruistic, its inventory sales.       

    I still believe a combined Pac/B12 media contract is worth more than either apart, and that takes into account the Big 12's T1 package is freakishly outdated compared to the rest.

     

    Let's say we do this merger of conferences at 16 total..  Two 8 school divisions or Four, 4 school pods..  ESPN plus has a lot of the rights for most of the big 12 tier 3s.  Texas, ou and Kansas are the only ones that have it's own.. With a merger of schools like this, does ESPN go ahead and greenlight an exclusive channel to distribute most of the new conference's tier 3 content?  From the Pac side.. who really can carry it's own tier 3 like Texas/ou/ku?  USC? UCLA? Oregon? Washington?

  8. 5 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

    No doubt.  Burris would be a big time get.  Maybe pitch him on being the lone DT take for this class?  I wont get any hopes up yet on that one.  Shemar Turner can also be had and I think he's comparable to Burris.  

    Also think Nwokobia will be a DB take and still think we need 3 CB's.  Maybe Hunter Washington?  Omarion Cooper?

    Still want Blackwell at LB.  He should be a take no matter what IMO. 

    I don't think Smith will be an off the ball LB, but that's OK.

    Seeing cooks and Harris at that camp early in the year.. Makes me think Harris would spin down to DE, he just doesn't have the lateral quickness Cooks or Blackwell has.  Feel the same about Smith spinning down to DE as well.  

  9. 9 minutes ago, futureman said:

    fuck that, he’s an elite talent.  bijan and evans in the backfield at the same time would be unstoppable. 

    we would need to switch to the wishbone.. nobody in 2020 or 2021 want to face a back field of Sam, Ingram, Bijan, Rojo, Evans

    • Like 1
  10. 19 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Little fun with numbers.   Here's the latest from the USAToday Database, comparing the Pac 12 with the Big 12 on several financial categories (USC/Stanford/TCU/Baylor not included due to being private:

    Big 12/Pac 12  2017-18 Finances              
    Revenue Rank School Conference Revenue Expenses Profit School Support % Support Profit After Support
    7 Oklahoma Big 12 $175,325,500 $152,674,475 $22,651,025 $0 0.00% $22,651,025
    1 Texas Big 12 $219,402,579 $206,554,432 $12,848,147 $0 0.00% $12,848,147
    50 Kansas State Big 12 $86,911,309 $77,633,258 $9,278,051 $350,000 0.40% $8,928,051
    37 West Virginia Big 12 $102,684,423 $91,807,281 $10,877,142 $4,107,003 4.00% $6,770,139
    26 Oregon Pac-12 $122,541,827 $119,811,239 $2,730,588 $240,598 0.20% $2,489,990
    22 Washington Pac-12 $130,919,331 $126,133,008 $4,786,323 $3,834,746 2.93% $951,577
    33 Kansas Big 12 $106,307,326 $104,108,072 $2,199,254 $1,804,397 1.70% $394,857
    48 Oklahoma State Big 12 $88,516,367 $88,228,667 $287,700 $89,466 0.10% $198,234
    47 Iowa State Big 12 $88,753,664 $88,670,048 $83,616 $2,093,104 2.36% ($2,009,488)
    21 UCLA Pac-12 $130,960,560 $130,960,560 $0 $2,608,165 1.99% ($2,608,165)
    46 Texas Tech Big 12 $89,259,783 $88,948,721 $311,062 $3,334,854 3.74% ($3,023,792)
    43 Utah Pac-12 $91,386,593 $87,578,834 $3,807,759 $12,374,118 13.54% ($8,566,359)
    45 Colorado Pac-12 $89,581,544 $89,826,611 ($245,067) $12,338,945 13.77% ($12,584,012)
    53 Washington State Pac-12 $65,117,715 $73,775,035 ($8,657,320) $5,337,518 8.20% ($13,994,838)
    51 Oregon State Pac-12 $80,712,000 $88,600,330 ($7,888,330) $9,763,192 12.10% ($17,651,522)
    44 California Pac-12 $91,247,489 $110,558,630 ($19,311,141) $0 0.00% ($19,311,141)
    41 Arizona Pac-12 $95,867,717 $103,329,464 ($7,461,747) $12,463,914 13.00% ($19,925,661)
    29 Arizona State Pac-12 $113,636,755 $126,782,387 ($13,145,632) $20,611,739 18.14% ($33,757,371)

     

     

    Big 12 Average     $119,645,119 $112,328,119 $7,317,000 $1,472,353 1.54% $5,844,647
    Pac 12 Average     $101,197,153 $105,735,610 ($4,538,457) $7,957,294 8.39% ($12,495,750)
    Pac 12 v Big 12  Difference   ($18,447,966) ($6,592,509) ($11,855,456) $6,484,941 6.85% ($18,340,397)

    The top half of the Pac 12 has more in common with the bottom half of the Big 12, when it comes to profit after subsidies.   So what if the Big 12 took the top half of the Pac 12 in this category (as opposed to total revenue) to make the Big 16?

    Big 16 Average     $117,119,293 $111,764,247 $5,355,046 $3,321,184 3.44% $2,033,862
    Remaining Average     $89,316,335 $100,609,169 ($11,292,834) $9,635,273 10.29% ($20,928,107)
    Remaining vs Big 16  Difference   ($27,802,958) ($11,155,077) ($16,647,880) $6,314,088 6.85% ($22,961,968)

    Absorbing the top half (minus private schools in the calcs obviously) basically leaves the Big 12's averages the same, which is a pretty good add.   Ironically, this would not be the Arizona schools that everyone talks about.   Instead its USC, Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Utah, and Colorado.   Which, while ceding Phoenix, isn't the worst add in the world.

    Damn what's up with the AZ schools? No wonder they would jump ship ASAP if an offer was made.  I still think AZ is an important piece since the population keeps growing there. However if you can only take one of the two.. Would it be ASU because of hot wimminz or the AAU membership AZ? Or is it still both?

  11. 2 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

    If we end up getting all these pass rushers does anybody think Sanders could play offense instead of D'?

    No..because Sanders will be the best DE on the 40 acres as soon as Ossai is gone. Sanders has a chance to be a franchise playmaker at DE that we have never seen since Tony Brackens imo, of course.

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