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Ghost of LL

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Ghost of LL

  1. On this point, the German Type-212 attack submarine is a very effective weapon to counter the Russian naval threat in the Baltic and North seas. We scoff because it's a diesel-electric boat. But the reality is that it's probably quieter and less detectable than the Virginia Class.
  2. Isn't the LTIR move just so that he won't count against the salary cap for the playoffs? It's the same loophole that Vegas used last year for Matt Stone, right? That's been my understanding of it, at least. And if that's the case, Miro may be able to come back today for all any of us know.
  3. Yeah--I actually had that thought. But I don't know what else we possibly have to trade away.
  4. Yeah--that's a legitimate idea. The Green Mountains are beautiful, and a stop in at Ben & Jerry's would be great. But at the same time, I have to tell you--lobster is about Mrs.LL's favorite food in the world; oysters and whole-belly clams are two of mine. So it's a bit hard to peel us away from the coast. And if I only have three or four days, it's not like we're doing just a whole lot of exploring anyway (not that Vermont is so big that it can't be explored in a short period of time).
  5. I have a wicked trial schedule in September/October, and the Longhorns are out of town on Labor Day weekend for the first time in forever. So I'm thinking of taking a long weekend in Maine over Labor Day with the family (kids 16 and 14). We were last up there when they were 7 and 5, so it's been a minute. We drove up from Boston to Portland, so we've done the whole York/Kennebunkport/Ogunquit drive. And I'm not saying I wouldn't do it again. I'm just saying I've done it. When I was a kid, we went up to Maine roughly every other Summer. So I have some recollection of the area all the way up to Machias. But damn--it's been a while. So I'd really like some thoughts. Probably only three or four days (leave Wednesday or Thursday, back Monday or Tuesday). So time is limited. So . . . just stay in Portland? Easy enough to do and fill up three or four days. And I kind of wouldn't feel like I had been to Maine if I didn't have a twin dinner at the Lobster Shack at Two Lights or have a meal or two at Eventide. I think the kids would like whale watching (even though it's slightly after the peak of the season, though with global warming, I'm not sure that's even true anymore). Or we can go up the coast somewhere, . . . but where? Boothbay Harbor is a nice little town. I remember Camden being nice--someone upthread characterized it as the most "bougie" town on the Mid-Coast, which is (1) right and (2) just Mrs.LL's speed. I remember Rockland also being a good spot. C'mon, surl--help a brother out.
  6. Real secondary sanctions of the type we have against North Korea. Any company that does any business with North Korea might as well be a North Korean company; it is completely barred from doing business with an American company. There has been a lot of reluctance to do that because of the extended consequences of that action, particularly with respect to Chinese companies. But there's some concern about it with Indian companies too. And it would further incentivize de-dollarization. But maybe if we're going to trash the dollar in favor of crypto or other such nonsense, we don't really care about those consequences anymore.
  7. I would read that book. Kind of an anti-Jack Aubrey.
  8. I will just never understand how Donald Trump (of all fucking people) captured the imagination of people like this.
  9. That's an excellent and underappreciated point. I'd also observe that Ukraine has a lot of intelligence capabilities inside Russia that aren't readily reproducible.
  10. We make surrender jokes about France, but that overlooks a few big points about France and French history that are at play here: 1) France is historically the power player in Western Europe. From the Thirty Years War straight through to World War II, France was the power that dictated the course of European history. Broadly speaking, coalitions were formed to counter French influence and expansionism. The French actually teach history in their schools, and the French people are aware of their historical role in Europe. There is a strong constituency in France that would like to see that country regain its role of military and diplomatic preeminence on the continent. 2) That constituency largely overlaps with the Gaullists. De Gaulle envisioned France as a third pole in a tri-polar world with the United States and the Soviet Union. It never really worked out because the UK was so closely tied to the United States and Germany was largely unwilling to join in a French-led European military/diplomatic project. But this is de Gaulle's dream come true--the United States sidelining itself and taking itself out of European affairs. That severs the Anglo-American relationship and aligns the UK much more closely with France (kind of reverting to the status quo ante World War I). France has always been a leader among the post-WWI Eastern European democracies, and so that just leaves Germany to get in line. France right now is ascendent. 3) And France has the military capability to back it up. It has a real nuclear deterrent. It doesn't have counterforce capability like we do. But it has enough warheads to really fuck Russia up. And apart from its current nuclear force--France has plenty of access to material and reactors to build additional weapons quickly. It can also build a bunch of intermediate-range missiles if it wants. And by the way--if it combines nuclear forces with the UK, the count of total warheads goes up to around 300. It's still not enough to present a counterforce option. But it is enough to be a really strong deterrent. You know--we haven't had a good Russo-Turkish war in more than a century. It used to be that those things would come around every 20 or 30 years. I like that we're getting back to basics. And the "basics" are that the Russians and the Turks fucking hate each other. They have overlapping spheres of influence from the Balkans clear through to Central Asia. Erdogan doesn't get the press that Putin does for his expansionist views, but don't be misled--Turkey has its eyes on being the leader of a pan-Turkic coalition that includes everything from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan straight through to Albania. And yeah--that's real contrary to Russia's goals in Central Asia and the Black Sea regions. You want to see a Turk get a hard-on? Tell Recep Erdogan that if Turkey helps Ukraine retake the Crimea, then Turkey could have basing rights at Sevastopol akin to the American navy's rights at HMNB Clyde.
  11. Yep--all that whiskey in barrels today is not going to be worth just a whole lot when it comes out.
  12. I guess here's my question: if you're Lockheed Martin or L3Harris, don't you open a European subsidiary and assign all of your intellectual property to it. Maybe they all have European subsidiaries already. But if the real buyer in the next two decades is going to be Europe, then why would American defense contractors put themselves in a position of losing out on that? And from the Europeans' standpoint, why would they not take advantage of all that available technology that the American taxpayer already paid to develop if they can entice American defense contractors to set up shop in Europe and employ European workers to build the mech? I just see a future in which L3Harris is primarily a European company.
  13. Six months ago, I completely would have agreed with your take. You're entirely correct that social-media retribution often is disproportionate to the crime. Today, however, I'm perfectly happy about what's happening to her. She's a wretched human being. She's being harmed because she harmed someone else. She'd harm you, too, if you ever came into contact with her because she loves "lib tears." With her compatriots, she is actively trying to destroy my country. Fuck her--I hope her life becomes so intolerable that she puts a bullet in her brain. Bonus points if she murders her husband on the way out, taking two Trump votes off the rolls.
  14. He’s also demonstrating a troubling lack of profit motive. I mean, how can I figure out how to short the 2025 version of Canter Fitzgerald?
  15. If this were any kind of country, the Democrats would go full Liberatores. Et tu, Bernie?
  16. Wait til we get the jobs numbers on Friday. Oh, and earnings season is going to be fun. We're going to have a shitshow well into 2Q25.
  17. The Stars are playing the Devils tonight on Hulu. That's what I'll be watching on my tv with my iPad on Texas baseball.
  18. Is New York going to be in the United States? I think not.
  19. Yep—people don’t need as much gas when they don’t have jobs to commute to.
  20. I also went into bonds about three weeks ago (and actually put the kids' entire 529s into fixed income). And Thursday I bought a bunch of May puts on SPY at 580, and I gotta tell you--I'm feeling pretty good about that. We're going to get numbers starting this Friday that are going to be . . . not good. And I just don't know how the market is going to react to that.
  21. The whole article is worth a read: The shocking thing about this article isn't necessarily the ignorance. It's the malevolence: "I'm not going to put my child at risk to save yours." Leaving aside the fact that there is functionally zero fucking risk, the out-and-out unwillingness to help the community in any way is remarkable. But then it's coupled with the inevitable persecution syndrome. "We're being unfairly blamed for bringing disease." I mean, yeah--because you did bring disease. There's nothing "unfair" about it. Between the ignorance, the malevolence, and the persecution syndrome, these people are a menace to society. If there's one thing I can agree with this Administration on, is that they be cut off from the federal teat, which is the only way they survive. Let them catch measles. And whopping cough and diphtheria, while they're at it. Cut off their Medicaid. Their hospitals will close. But that's ok--they'll have plenty of snake oil to keep them kicking. And along the way, we can cut off their SNAP and their farm credits and everything else. A century ago, their ancestors in that part of the state died of disease and starvation. We made a mistake in eradicating those two particular horsemen from riding roughshod.
  22. I don't think there's a company out there that is going to suffer from the extinction of the Boomers quite like Harley Davidson.
  23. Here you go--the election results from Oklahoma County, Oklahoma (where Tinker AFB is sited): Oklahoma County is about as blue as Oklahoma gets. Now you want to really hurt some MAGAts--go after Vance AFB in Garfield County.
  24. Well, I mean--yeah. But at the same time, the Europeans have the F-35. The South Koreans have the F-35. And it doesn't take just a whole lot to reverse engineer it (and that's assuming Lockheed Martin wouldn't just license it out). But beyond air power, I think the Ukraine War has shown that we're facing an entirely different battlefield than the one for which a lot of our best shit was built. I'm not at all certain that we have the best drones. And I'm definitely not sure we have the best cyber-security. And to the extent we presently have the best of either, the state of the art is advancing so quickly that we could easily be surpassed by a new challenger.
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