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Ghost of LL

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Ghost of LL

  1. Learning is for cucks and soy boys. [\Incredulity]
  2. That's kind of my read, too. If whoever has the majority only has a majority of 1 or 2, then I think I'd rather have the GQP in the majority. Either way, we're not really getting shit done. But at least that puts the House Republicans in the position of either (1) doing stupid shit that pisses off the majority of the country, or (2) pissing off their base with their inability/refusal to do stupid shit that pisses off the majority of the country. Either way, it's a win for Democrats. The only thing that tempers that feeling is the debt ceiling. But we can fix that in the lame duck.
  3. Right. And others can speak to this more intelligently than I can. But having her in the caucus meetings just makes it easier to bargain.
  4. It's going to present much more like a special election than anything. For most of the state, there's going to be a single race on the ballot. And while it'll be relatively high-profile, the national consequences are going to be muted because it won't determine who holds the Senate. Democrats have performed really well in special elections going back to 2017. Part of that speaks to being the party of more-educated voters, as you point out. Part of that indicates a more motivated base. But regardless, I feel pretty confident about that runoff. It's just fucking wild. And I'm totally here for a 218-217 House. For one thing, to @Bateshorn's point from yesterday, I can't imagine the Republicans will put the Hastert Rule back into effect. I mean, why would any Member possibly favor that? It would take away most of the power individual Republicans have in a House that hinges on every single vote. But if there's no Hastert Rule, then you could have some absolutely wild politicking for individual votes for all manner of things. It's just going to be amazing to watch. But beyond that, at some point some Republican is going to die or get arrested for child pornography or get indicted for seditious conspiracy. And, as you note, that special election is going to be insane. This is really when you might look to the possibility of Murkowski switching parties. She would be the 52nd vote, which would give her tremendous leverage because the Administration would be able to get shit done without Manchin and Sinema. And now it's pretty well demonstrated between her and Peltola that she can win without having the (R) by her name.
  5. Ok, but here’s just a political reality: incumbent senators don’t lose in a midterm when the opposite party holds the presidency (unless that incumbent senator is named Ben Nelson and he runs genuinely the worst campaign in the history of ever).
  6. It’s just amazing how much of a shitshow the count in Nevada is.
  7. There's a Clark County elections press conference here at the bottom of the hour, which will reveal how many mail-in ballots they have (though there will be a few more trickling in over the next few days).
  8. Women acting against their interests is the only way you've ever gotten laid. So yeah--it's definitely a real and recurring phenomenon.
  9. Yeah. He had a great night. And he ran a really good campaign. The Republicans really did him a favor by running an absolute nutjob against him. And the amazing thin is that they nominated her over a Biglaw moderate Republican who would've given him some real trouble. But as it ended up he was so far ahead of his benchmarks after the first round of results that he had absolutely no uncertainty. And yeah--having the AG and the SOS in Democratic hands is absolutely critical for 2024. I really couldn't be happier about those results.
  10. Just leaving Vegas now, but the Dems here remain pretty confident. When you read about "mail-in" votes that are still to be counted in Washoe and Clark, you need to understand that those aren't actually mailed in. The "mail-in" ballots that were received before Monday have all been counted. The "mail-in" ballots that have yet to be counted are almost entirely ballots where the voter received a ballot in the mail, put it in an envelope, and dropped it at a polling place on election day. And those are going to be even more Democratic than the rest of the mail-in ballots, because that was the entire Democratic GOTV focus. They told people, "hey, it's super easy; just go and drop your ballot at the polling station and you don't have to wait in line like a schlub." So Cortez Masto is going to win. And she's probably going to win somewhat comfortably. She was hitting all of the benchmarks that the Party's people expected her to need. Sisolak is still well below the glide path.
  11. Nevada is so weird. You kind of hop from suite to suite for the various office holders here at the Encore seeking out the best food and drink. AG Ford has the best food. Gov. Sisolak has the best drink.
  12. That’s certainly the case when the Lege, the AG, and the SOS will all be Dems. But we’d still prefer Sisolak to win, of course.
  13. I’m over here at the Democratic Party watch party at the Encore, and they’re feeling very good about CCM. Sislak, though, is well below the glidepath.
  14. This is such nonsense, because you're assuming that certain hours are representative of the total vote. And they're just not. Republicans come more in some hours and Democrats in others. And it's not consistent from location to location. Look--we're fucked in Florida. But this isn't indicative of a more serious fucking than anticipated. We're just fucked in Florida.
  15. A 43% chance of CCM winning in Nevada. And frankly, I think that's low. But regardless, a 43% chance is a decent chance.
  16. Anyone impersonating a Ghost will be banned. I hope Elon didn't trademark that.
  17. I'm out here in Nevada this week, helping my friend who is trying to get reelected as the state's attorney general, and holy shit the political ads. I don't think I've seen a single ad that isn't a political ad. And every last one of them is negative--"X is too extreme for Nevada" or "Y isn't right for Nevada families." I don't think I've ever seen a cycle like this where there genuinely isn't single positive ad out there.
  18. Even Georgia was invaded under the pretense of aiding local pro-Russian separatists movements. And I guess that's the big thing I've not understood since February--why the massive departure from Russia's MO in this case? I don't really understand why (1) Russia undertook a direct invasion without even an attempted justification, and (2) why they decided to invade Ukraine when they did.
  19. He was on the ice for all five Stars goals. And he was not on the ice for either Kings goal. Is that good?
  20. What an incredible finish. It's always amazing to see a buzzer-beater.
  21. https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587576668142456836?s=20&t=jLYR5V6U3DnxW-YvAsrFUw
  22. It was unusual. @DDD Dad and I had a case in Collin County in 2013. It was one of those cases where we had a decent shot at summary judgment, but if we didn't get summary judgment we knew we were going to get absolutely buttfucked by a Collin County jury. So I called up a friend who does a lot of Collin County work and asked him about his thoughts on our judge, and specifically whether he is prone to granting summary judgments. The feedback I got was "you need local counsel, and your local counsel needs to be Ken Paxton." Our judge had just been appointed to the bench a year earlier, and had been something of a protégé of Paxton's. I don't know the complete backstory, but it was apparent that our judge was on the bench entirely due to Ken Paxton. Great. I don't care. I want to win. And if I need Ken Paxton to win, then I'm going to get Ken Paxton. So the day of the summary-judgment hearing, Paxton rolls into the courtroom about 10 minutes before the hearing. I chat with him briefly--and "briefly" was all our chat needed because it became really apparent real quick that Paxton hadn't done shit. He hadn't read the briefing; he didn't know shit about the case. I suggested that I could do the argument, and he readily agreed. So there we go in our hearing. Collin County is one of those counties where there is kind of a shelf on the front of the bench and you go up there to argue. As an aside, I think that's really kind of a North Texas thing--you don't see that in Houston or Austin or really anywhere else. Anyway, so Paxton and I go up. It's my motion, so I argue and am typically brilliant. I've got this wrapped up. Plaintiff's counsel argues, but he's fucked up a bunch of shit, and I'm feeling pretty good. I have a short rebuttal. Now, it's been nearly ten years. But I'm pretty sure that this is a very accurate transcription of what happened next: THE COURT: Ok. Anything else? Mr. Ghost: No, your honor. THE COURT. Ok. Umm, . . . Mr. Paxton, what do you think I should do here. Mr. Paxton: I really think you ought to grant this motion, Judge. THE COURT: Ok. Mr. Ghost--why don't you get me a proposed order. Mr. Ghost: Thank you, your honor. We'll get that for you promptly. And that's how I won in Collin County, Texas.
  23. And who was our local counsel? And did we make sure to lock up all of the Mont Blanc pens before meeting with him?
  24. That's ridiculous. We're just going to kill them. After all, we don't put rats in zoos; we just exterminate them.
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