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Vegas64

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Everything posted by Vegas64

  1. I get why people are AI doomers, but I think this is extremely short-sighted, myopic and even a bit silly. Technological paradigm shifts are scary when you are 58 years old like we are. But the world is not ending and things will shake out and new technology and business norms will eventually become...normal and boring. Like you using a macbook and lexus nexus and doing discovery via e-filing or whatever in your day to day life versus paper and pen. You sound a lot like the draftsman who bemoaned how 3 floors of hundreds of manual drafting drawers with a great degree and skill and healthy income were thrown out for one guy to do CAD. Or the thousands of bookkeepers and manual recorders organizations employed who with an upper middle class life were eliminated overnight with the advents of ERPs. Life will go on and new avenues will open. The only thing that makes this unique is the speed at which the transition is happening because AI seemingly popped overnight in 2022 and disruption is happening across the board at the same time.
  2. That was rock bottom. There is only up from there.
  3. Just read the article. What jumps out to me is this: A) "We know that social inequality and hierarchy was central to society" B) "However, we've found some ancient ruins that suggest an alternative egalitarian set up" This reads to me like if in the future archeologists said, "Listen we know America 4000 years ago was very stratified and oligarchical and increasingly fascist and there was great income and life inequality, but based on us digging up the spiritual camp and hippie commune in the desert outside of Bakersfield, maybe they were actually not this way!" We digress...
  4. This was my point. And there is a difference between mere existence and executing and being effective.
  5. This implies caste systems and haves and have nots, does it not?
  6. The very fundamental precept of market economics is that resources are limited and human desires are unlimited. I think we are both saying the same thing. And I would guess we both agree that late stage capitalism needs to be tore down for anything to change. We live in a framework and methodology problem because I think it's been proven since time immemorial that human beings don't do behavior modification and long term behavior change. We need to be fenced.
  7. So are we getting medicinal flower?!
  8. Thought this was an interesting thought about computers: Will aliens have computers? Deutsch’s question (Is there a (single) universal computing device which can efficiently simulate any other physical system?) is a simple, fundamental question about the nature of the universe. It’s the kind of question which alien counterparts to Deutsch could plausibly come to ponder. And the alien civilizations of which they are a part would then be led inexorably to invent computers. In this sense, computers aren’t just human inventions. They are a fundamental feature of the universe, the answer to a simple and profound question about how the universe works. And they have likely been discovered over and over again by many alien intelligences.
  9. I don't know, maybe. Feels like you are giving a synopsis that is is not deep enough to be all the way accurate.
  10. Not only is it still a world of scarcity, but it's about to get a lot more scarce when AI's appetite is full grown. That's the whole other thread though.
  11. These terrorists groups don't exist without resources; money, munitions, and political cover. Iran gave them these in spades. Alone without Iran these groups are but sparks and flames. Iran was the immense oxygen that fanned the flames.
  12. I'm on record as saying I believe we have trended back to a "might is right" global governance, having moved away from multi-cultural and globalist alignments. I have no problem assigning the label bully to "America" as well. I think the difference is America will talk the talk and walk the walk. Bullies like Iran will talk the talk and....well...it didn't end well for them. They have the spirit and the chutzpah but they don't have the resources and talent. Not a blue blood.
  13. YOu mention live action, it's the live action how to train a dragon movie that won the week/end for the second week in a row. That's the weird thing. That a) a live action movie that's not a disney property did well and resonated with audiences who are over live actions and b) that a pixar film couldn't win the weekend of it's debut against older runs. And some of the marketing budget had to be there, I can't imagine Happy Meal tie-ins are cheap. I realize they aren't the gold standard that they used to be in the 80's and 90's, but it's definitely something.
  14. Because we live in a world of scarcity and vie for the same resources and our competition uses a fundementally similiar tactic (e.g. an overarching worldview) but in super different deployments and use cases.
  15. All fair questions and like with most things, time will tell. I'm especially curious to see whomever reports the most factual, assured, audited report of the real effects and destruction of the bombing. That will determine for me if all this squeeze was worth any juice.
  16. Iran is always on the "wrong side" of American interests, and unabashedly and vocally in a way that their mouths were writing checks their butts couldn't cash-- you know, a "bully". Terrorism: - Hamas existed because of Iran - Palastinian Islamic Jihad existed because of Iran - Hezbollah existed because of Iran - The Anti-American insurgency post-Iraq war existed because of Iran - Houthi terrorists existed because of Iran - Piracy on the high waters and oil tanker attacks exist due to Iran - 10/7 happens because of Iran Not only that, but Iran was a coward (as all bullies truly are deep down). Always avoiding directly doing anything but having their minions do their dirty work. And like all bullies, when punched in the nose, the truth is they are weak and cowards and projecting their insecurities. Iran has comported itself very poorly since 10/7 and should be shamed.
  17. I've been told repeatedly that history didn't start on 10/7.
  18. It’s like a scrimmage. Not exactly closed war games practice but not the real thing either. Got some reps in against a cream puff.
  19. It’s like the markets always knew. Wall st didn’t react and the price of oil actually fell a bit. Lol
  20. I actually hate that tweet. You are supposed to play the game and pretend, so that Iran can save face. That's the whole point. When you tell your kid you let him beat you in 1x1 basketball, it takes the fulfillment and emotional reward away. He still feels like a loser just as if he would have lost. You have to let the Iranian's that care about the current regime feel like their country wasn't completely emasculated and embarrassed but that they got some measure of revenge.
  21. You are right. It's like in a board game when you roll a 5 and then move 5 spaces but then land on a go back 5 spaces, so ultimately you end up exactly where you were. There is no tangible or material difference I guess, you are arguing. I think the jury is still out on that, but you are probably right. However, I think there is a psychological accomplishment. Iran has been talking crazy smack for decades now. They build up proxies to be their little footsoliders and thought they'd be able to sit back and threaten indefinitely. They've been exposed as bullies who talk loud but can't back it up. Like you do with bullies, Iran got punched in the face and their little friends are done. And for what? A day's worth of work for the military and a reminder to the misfit countries (again, the only countries to come out and publicly rebuke us for this is China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea) about American military might. Just because we can't get along very well with each other domestically doesn't mean we can't still put the fear of death in anyone on this planet in any location, even if you are 400 feet deep under a mountain.
  22. Dominant performance by Israel & the U.S. Iran is not a blueblood-- needs to fire it's coach.
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