A Comprehensive List of my Fears/Anxieties Regarding Trump 2.0:
These are organized based on my estimation of their probability.
Foreign Policy - I fundamentally disagree with Trump on most all foreign policy issues, the chances of me being disappointed by the next 4 years of foreign policy are near 100%. (I will give credit to Trump for not being a Neocon war hawk)
Ukraine - Ukraine will not exist as an independent country by 2026. Their only chance is Europe stepping up big, on their own. (98%)
NATO - I don't think he could manage to withdraw us from NATO, but it's possible. I'm more concerned with just a general sabotaging of the alliance with the way he treats our democratic allies. (weakening NATO 95%, leaving NATO 10%)
Authoritarians - Trump has well established his respect for leaders such as Putin, Orbán & Kim Jong Un. The US cozying to these regimes is bad news for the world (95%)
Taiwan - As commander if chief, I don't see Trump deciding to support Taiwan if it came to invasion. I suspect there is a good chance this remains untested, as I'm not sure China has the stomach for that right now. (40%)
The Middle East - I see Trump as a bit of a wild card here. This is a mess, and no president has ever done that great of a job with it. I just don't trust Trump's judgment. (I think there is a 90% chance he will really annoy me with his policy, and a 30% he really fucks something up)
Climate Change - Donald Trump isn't responsible for Climate change, but he sure as hell isn't going to help matters. He's promising to get rid of climate regulations and I believe him. (99.9%)
Racism - Trump's language encourages and empowers the worst racists in the country. If we've made 10 steps forward on the issues of racism in this country since the 1950's, prepare to take a few back. (99%)
Economic Policy - Trump has never seemed super key on cutting benefits (unlike many of his Republican brethren) But he does love cutting taxes, most of those benefits will go the wealthy. (The chances of his annoying me with his Economic policy in some small/medium way are 95%)
The Tariffs - He has said he will do this. Will he? Who knows. It's bad policy that will disproportionately affect the poorest Americans, and poorest people in general, globally. I'm not exactly a doomsayer on Tariffs. The entire Global Economy is a pretty resilient creature, it will bounce back. My point is, why shock it with bad policy? (This is hard to call, I say it has a 75% of happening in one form or another - probably smaller than feared)
Mass deportations - He has said he will do this. Will he? Who knows. This would be a lot more difficult to actually pull off. I'm obviously against it from a humanitarian standpoint. However, I'm putting it in the economic policy category because if you actually managed to Deport 18 million people who are all either desperately seeking work, or working their asses of and spending nearly every penny they make on food, shelter and necessities, it would be disastrous for the US economy. Again, the US economy is pretty resilient, but why enact terrible policy and make everyone's lives worse? (Odds at 40%)
Revenge Tour - He has issued lots of vague (some less vague) threats against various people or groups that have wronged him in some way over the years. There has been ominous talk about the "enemy within". He certainly has the power to "weaponize" the justice department. If you think the Justice department has already been "weaponized", does that make it ok? I think a lot of Democrats really go off the rails with this category of fears (Don't take that as an attack, your fears are valid). I suspect that the odds of some of this happening are near 100%. The question is the degree. I just don't think it will rise to the level many Democrats fear.
Degradation of democracy - This is a man that actively fought the results of the 2020 election, has continued to call it stolen despite not having any credible evidence to support it. It's a mantra, a dogma. This is man that frequently makes a lot of "jokes" and cute comments about being a dictator or running for third terms. I personally liken his re-election to smearing shit on the face of democracy. It's extremely unpleasant, not good for you, but you'll likely survive and really just need to take a bath.
Further corruption of the judicial system - They will continue to place extremely partisan judges, and I don't just mean conservative, I mean people that will "play ball" for Trump, and give him what he wants. Members of the cult of personality. It's possible a supreme court spot could open up, but not super likely they would be replacing a liberal justice. (100%)
Gerrymandering - This is a fundamental flaw in our democracy. Both sides have taken advantage of it. I'd argue Republicans have used it more effectively in recent history. It is wrong for the party in power to manipulate how elections are done in order to maximize/extend their power. It will be full speed ahead again. (100%)
Voter suppression - This can take all kinds of forms, some overt, most more subtle. (Subtle, less dramatic forms 100%. Extreme, overt suppression 25%)
Actual structural changes to our government - This could take the form of passing anti-democratic laws, or executive order power-grabs that go uncontested by a Republican congress. The purpose of these would be to solidify Republican control of the government to be permanent. (10%)
Boldly become a dictator - In this scenario, the US either no longer has elections or some kind of sham/one-party elections like Russia. I certainly understand why Democrats fear this. I think it's probably overblown. (1%)\
Anyway, that is the sum of my fears. It's not pretty, I'm not happy about it, but life goes on. I have shit to do.