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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Hefeweizen

  1. I know, take this with a huge grain of salt, but holy shit this sounds like the worst military organization ever.
  2. Fuck that guy. Put him on the end of a howitzer British style.
  3. I don't see any off ramp here at all. Russia is committed - Putin isn't going to stop. Economic collapse will happen (they can't keep banks and stock market closed forever in Russia) but I don't think it's soon enough. The oligarchs are the only ones who can make the change at the top. Russian military probably isn't going to mutiny or desert en masse; although there is some chance of this. No way anyone intervenes unless Russia hits outside Ukraine's borders. This is going to be a bloody two weeks and then the insurgency will go on for a while.
  4. Not a fan. Macron has been exposed by Putin before. I think I would go with unconditional withdrawal of all Russian forces as a starting point.
  5. Pieces of fuck. This is going to get really ugly.
  6. That is going to leave a mark! Wonder what a 30 year jumbo in Sochi goes for now.
  7. I have this itchy feeling in the back of my brain as well. But we are conditioned (I am nearly 50) by our childhood memory of the USSR. This is not the Soviet Union. I think there are probably some elite units but what if ole Vlad is keeping them nearby as insurance against China, the Norks, Turkey, Georgia, and Kazakhstan rebels? Russia has a really long border (duh) and it's stripped it of something like 80% of its forces. Wagner is some bad shit:
  8. Fuck yeah. I love clarity. Fuck China in their goat ass.
  9. Our stock market inverse indicator.
  10. I am in the camp of uncertainty is bad bad news with regard to Russia. They telegraph most military moves. Unlike their espionage and scientists, both of which are pretty top notch. I really do think something is wrong with Putin - something recent which has altered his world view even further.
  11. This guy is fucking money on the military/logistics side.
  12. The immediate tactical objective is Mariupol to secure the land bridge. The next objective is to hold Kherson and Mykolaiv to ensure a permanent hold across the Dniepr. My guess is if he secures the land bridge he'll take the L in the north and agree to peace talks. Frankly I can't figure out if that is something Ukraine can or will live with. It creates yet another endless friction point which will be in perpetual war status, and emboldens Putin once again to think he can bite off smaller chunks at a time. Strategically this whole war plan appears to have been to split Ukraine down the Dniepr but it's looking pretty unlikely to happen. Great map - it shows extents of advances but not necessarily control.
  13. That's why he moved its ownership. So it won't be seized. Because that is coming for the oligarchs now. Until they grease the right palms (if they can get to them with their armies of lobbyists).
  14. Spass muss sein, sprach Wallenstein, und schoss damit die Eier hinein!
  15. One more interesting tweet suggesting the conflict is intensifying: This Lukashenko asshole seems like he sucks.
  16. Exhibit 2: They are doing what NATO has been begging them to for years. This is a complete change and departure from past policy - and this is the formerly Russian leaning side of the German government!
  17. Before you write Germany completely off; they have seen the light (finally) and this change isn't going to undo itself. NS2 is dead, Germany is turning westward on energy, and I suspect there will eventually even be a reckoning on nuclear power. Basically they misread Russia completely because they projected their mercantilism onto the Russian re: energy sales. It was a nice fantasy while it lasted. I listened to a Tagesschau interview with Merz which couldn't have been clearer on Friday evening. This fuckup by Putin, showing everyone what he is (most of us already knew), changed everything.
  18. Going to follow up on Shady’s comment earlier. Germany finally woke the Fuck up and smelled the vodka. Watch out now because with the Wende there will be serious shit coming. The SPD will be out along with the greens and the CDU going to go Helmut Kohl on this.
  19. I'm loving the coordinated ratcheting up of fuck around and find out that everyone is doing to Russia now. Fuck those motherfuckers.
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