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GSU&UT

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by GSU&UT

  1. Like I'm saying, if you're seeing record turnout in Dekalb (possibly Fulton, Clayton, etc.) where there was already good turnout during the EV period, you have to feel a lot better than you did on November 3rd.
  2. Let's just say, if you're Perdue or Loeffler you're sweating bullets right now especially after that released statement lol. It may be close, but it is not trending their way.
  3. This isn't a +5 state anymore. GA white rural turnout was JUICED for Trump this year and just enough Democratic voters turned out to finally flip it. This also bodes well to blunt any crazy turnout from the exurbs of Atlanta, Dekalb already had one of the highest turnouts of any county before today.
  4. I just spot checked a bunch of Dekalb precinct based off this map if they had reported around 4pm just now, https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8 And compared it to the XLS file you can download here, https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/DeKalb/105414/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=271880/ I only spot checked about 10 but every single one I found that updated around 4pm had more votes cast already than they had on election day for the general. Any surge in turnout today is not going to overwhelmingly benefit the GOP it looks like.
  5. I've been following Lakshya for a few weeks. He's not Nate Cohn but it's clear he knows his stuff. There's time for Spalding exurbs to have their more MAGA base show up but that number was cited in an 11Alive news report and not good at all for exurb/rural White Georgia especially if Dems are turning out in just as high of numbers as they did in November in Atlanta.
  6. If 900,000 wins it for Rs with them only needing 60% of that, then they literally have not looked at the early voting data. They would need to win probably closer to 70% of that.
  7. 99% of the attack ads on Loffler and Perdue I saw on TV were about their insider trading combined with how wealthy they already are. Probably the easiest ads you could make that would resonate with the most amount of people.
  8. Well Sterling just posted this, so that's directly from the source.
  9. All anecdotal but good to hear. Fulton had one fewer in-person early voting day than most of the surrounding metro counties so if turnout is strong there then that should hopefully blunt any crazy surge in the NW or SE parts of the state.
  10. This ballot also didn't take two pages like it did for me last time because there's only three races we're voting in. I'm hoping that sped up processing time quite a bit.
  11. There's fewer mail-in ballots and counties were required to start processing them a couple of weeks out instead of that being a suggestion. There's likely going to still be a ton of mail-in ballots that need to be counted in the coming days by just looking at the numbers, but the rural counties that have fewer people voting by mail will get their results in faster. This is why I said I'd be looking at the margins, it should quickly tell us where things are going. If Perdue doesn't hit the same margins he did in Hall or Cherokee county then him and Loeffler are probably screwed.
  12. @Buzzrock you'll appreciate this
  13. Uh, GOP needs probably at least 1 million votes if not more based on the demographic shifts in the EV. Price's dipshit ass probably thinks no Dems are turning out but that is not the case, seems like several people I used to work with early voted in November and waited until today for the runoff. Just saw a huge Warnock sign being towed by a plane just ITP in Dekalb while I was driving. It will be hard to tell when the results roll in if they're only absentee, in-person, or a mix, but the conservative exurb counties like Forsyth, Cherokee, and Hall are what I'm going to be watching. It was pretty clear Trump was in trouble in Georgia when those margins were coming in early on.
  14. I haven't posted much since March on Surly just because I just got way too addicted and pissed off so I haven't read through the entire thread. I live in the Atlanta metro area where we're seeing really good turnout in Dem leaning areas versus GOP. https://www.georgiavotes.com/ If you look at the racial breakdown of all the early votes (in person + absentee) you'll see that electorate is 30.9% Black compared to the end of EV in the general where it was 27.8%. That number should climb to above 31% after a ton of absentee ballots, which are more overwhelmingly D friendly, get processed today. I cannot emphasize enough of how much of a hill the GOP has to climb tomorrow in order to win these seats. The electorate being over three points more Black going into election day means you would need to see probably higher than election day turnout in November or almost no Democrat heavy precincts with voters, I don't think the latter is likely given how much advertisement and messaging has been aimed in my area for over two solid months. You can see how rural turnout in the NW and SE parts of the state are lagging, the SW part is the Black Belt where rural counties are majority, or close to, Black. https://public.tableau.com/profile/stephen.fowler#!/vizhome/EarlyVotingTurnout15Georgia/DropoffInEarlyVotingFrom113 Yes more people may have not voted early this time because of the holidays, Trump's conspiracy shit, or whatever but that is going to cut both ways. Fulton county, the largest and close to the most Dem friendly, had one fewer in-person EV day and likely should have a healthy turnout tomorrow which will blunt any possible insane turnout we see in NW Georgia where Trump is having his ranting ego-stroking rally. The GOP could still win but they are clearly in a worse position than they were before election day in November. Lastly, just in terms of what I'm seeing, it's mostly pro-Warnock and Ossoff stuff everywhere with some Loeffler and Perdue signs. That doesn't mean much, but what did shock me was seeing some smart subterfuge by groups to put up advertisements in Forsyth County (super MAGA exurb of Atlanta) of Lin Wood's own quotes saying "Loffler and Perdue didn't deliver Georgia to Trump." Not sure how much that will have an effect versus just Trump being not being on the ballot and that dampening turnout, but any depression along the margins will help Dems.
  15. Had to look it up, but the last win at Phog was the game J'Covan Brown went off from deep.
  16. Why the fuck isn't Bijan getting more carries up the middle?
  17. First Georgia Southern coach who was a famous DC at UGA. https://www.espn.com/colleges/georgia/football/story/_/id/7845096/former-georgia-bulldogs-coach-erk-russell-immortalized-georgia-southern-statue More than two decades have passed since Russell coached the Eagles, but Georgia Southern clings to the traditions he started. Only Russell could take the drainage ditch that ran alongside the Eagles' practice field and nickname it "Beautiful Eagle Creek," whose supposedly magical waters he would use to fill a milk jug and then pour the contents onto the field at big road games as a motivational tactic. Only Russell would head-butt his players, resulting in the occasional trickle of blood down his trademark bald head. Only Russell could have sold his folksy philosophies, including "G.A.T.A." (Get After Their Asses), "Just One More Time" and "Do Right" to players in their teens and 20s without getting eye rolls in return.
  18. It's been a weird year, but Coastal just running through the conference when they were in a less tough conference than Georgia Southern was in FCS is crazy to me.
  19. Jawja Southern! The D-line has played so well but we had multiple QB injuries costing us a couple of games at the end of the season.
  20. I flat out didn't believe Texas won 9 of the last 10 when I saw that stat earlier. God I hope this team shows up in February and March.
  21. No idea how you throw a football accurate enough, even twenty yards, in shit like this, but Lamar just did. It looks like they're basically playing backyard football right now.
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