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GSU&UT

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by GSU&UT

  1. Georgia has always been a very Black state, but there's been so much history of suppression through tickey-tack means in the past 20 years and then especially after Shelby County v. Holder. The suburbs here getting insanely diverse and flipping has helped activate a ton of the Black vote you see in the more rural counties. It also helps, unlike Florida, that a bunch of old conservative white retirees aren't coming here.
  2. Again I don't think they've reported how many absentee ballots many of the big counties received today that they can process.
  3. They did the same thing during the general election. Savannah poll workers aren't dealing with this shit after 11pm haha.
  4. There's so much more outstanding vote for Ossoff where DeKalb outperformed it's e-day vote in November that there's barely a chance Perdue wins. We don't even know how many absentee ballots were turned into today that they haven't even processed.
  5. Hahhahahahhahaha, he is a cuck but he likely got death threats after Trump started screaming about Georgia in particular being rigged. I have a little bit of respect for him going on CNN and saying this.
  6. Stephen is someone who I would completely trust on whatever the issue is about numbers in precincts. He's been publishing a ton of data every day of the early voting period.
  7. This is insane. Clayton is the most Democratic county in Georgia, to improve on that margin must mean you really fucked up if you're the GOP.
  8. FYI Chuck Rocha is who you contact to help Latino Dem turnout in Texas. He is doing something with the Biden campaign, but he was with the Bernie campaign during the primary and is a BIG reason why Bernie crushed in Nevada and still won California during Super Tuesday.
  9. Alright fellas, getting drunk myself and celebrating my state somehow became this important to the country after I moved back home from Austin. I miss Texas every day honestly though. Hey Mitch,
  10. Exurbs of Atlanta starting to come in with very very little of super populated very Blue counties left to count. Hence the NYT needle still very much in favor of Ossoff and Warnock.
  11. Nate is basically making a projection here.
  12. Cherokee running behind is not good considering how much fanfare there was earlier about high turnout there where the GOP needed it.
  13. FYI there's still quite possibly tens of thousands of absentee ballots that got received today and haven't been processed.
  14. Just came to post this. You insult a black preacher in Georgia (completely taking his sermons out of context) you're going to pay the fucking price.
  15. Only keeping up with a thread on another board, but just going to drop this here. This is what I'm talking about when I kept repeating myself about the Black Belt and its importance. They showed the fuck up in early voting.
  16. Right, turnout was super high most everywhere in November and Biden squeaked by. Right now turnout was much lower in the counties Rs need to run up the score in, even if they have higher than November e-day numbers tonight that isn't going to help them unless the total number of ballots cast is closer to general election's total.
  17. Like I'm saying, if you're seeing record turnout in Dekalb (possibly Fulton, Clayton, etc.) where there was already good turnout during the EV period, you have to feel a lot better than you did on November 3rd.
  18. Let's just say, if you're Perdue or Loeffler you're sweating bullets right now especially after that released statement lol. It may be close, but it is not trending their way.
  19. This isn't a +5 state anymore. GA white rural turnout was JUICED for Trump this year and just enough Democratic voters turned out to finally flip it. This also bodes well to blunt any crazy turnout from the exurbs of Atlanta, Dekalb already had one of the highest turnouts of any county before today.
  20. I just spot checked a bunch of Dekalb precinct based off this map if they had reported around 4pm just now, https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8 And compared it to the XLS file you can download here, https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/DeKalb/105414/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=271880/ I only spot checked about 10 but every single one I found that updated around 4pm had more votes cast already than they had on election day for the general. Any surge in turnout today is not going to overwhelmingly benefit the GOP it looks like.
  21. I've been following Lakshya for a few weeks. He's not Nate Cohn but it's clear he knows his stuff. There's time for Spalding exurbs to have their more MAGA base show up but that number was cited in an 11Alive news report and not good at all for exurb/rural White Georgia especially if Dems are turning out in just as high of numbers as they did in November in Atlanta.
  22. If 900,000 wins it for Rs with them only needing 60% of that, then they literally have not looked at the early voting data. They would need to win probably closer to 70% of that.
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