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52-80

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Everything posted by 52-80

  1. Wife is teaching kid a common trick she learned growing up of how to doodle a snail. 🐌 Im gonna laugh if he repeats it poorly at daycare and we get questions from the teachers…
  2. All the credit number are rates, so already normalized for population. Fig 21 (hypothetical coverage of emergency spending) is nominal. $400 was ~$550 in 2013….but the current survey found that the response was insensitive to the a $500 question anyway. Since 2013, when this question was first asked, median household incomes increased as did consumer prices.To check how changes in price levels affect responses to this question, the 2022 survey asked one-fifth of respondents how they would handle a $500 expense instead. Changing the threshold only altered the share who would pay in cash by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting that shifts in the price level have not materially affected the trend in this series.
  3. Census’ home ownership is defined as owner-occupied. Otherwise, every house is owned by someone (private or corporate landlord) and the measure becomes meaningless. No heavy math required. see: Tenure https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2021/2021 AHS Definitions.pdf Whatever number of people admitting to skipping medical services could be construed as “bad”. Even 5%. The important thing is to put it in context. The current answer is lower than when the survey first started — post Obamacare, btw The speculation about the statistic masking people using credit card to cover lack of true liquidity: (1) survey specifically conditions on “credit card **paid off** at the next statement and (2) importantly, the criteria were identical in the previous years when they asked the same question. The occams razor answer as to why there is a divergence between peoples response about their own finances vs external finances as a whole….is they know reasonably/relatively well about their money, and they simply they dont know shit about the economy. Thats not even meant to be disparaging. Its well evidenced here and pretty much undisputable. People dont key into anything besides headline prices (mostly of gasoline), and headline news print. More than that, their assessment of economic conditions are primarily a reflection of whether their party is in government. (A hilarious effect replicated in every country/jurisdiction in the world). ** If we simply lean on anecdotes to start this convo, ill end it with one. My own dear wife with a graduate degree in science and whose earnings grew 50% over last few years…if i asked her if the unemployment rate or stock market was up or down YTD she’d have no idea. If I asked her whether the central bank’s policy rates have been rising or dropping she’d look at me like I’m pranking her. If I asked her whether the economy is better or worse, she’d probably say worse….because milk costs more.
  4. Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%. You dont need to be a math guy to find that. “But its because they lie to surveymonkey”. Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times? Dont drink the doomerjuice.
  5. Mercedes-AMG CLA 45 S 4MATIC+ Coupe sends its regards
  6. The entire 'capitalization' of the cryptosphere is smaller than 1 company in the SPX. It is a mere byproduct of financial surplus. If you want to say that the SPX itself is overvalued, in big part due to excessive liquidity, thanks to the Fed's directionally-bad overaccomodation of the Govt's appetite for debt spending.... hey, nice to see you in the party; keg's in the back. If you want to say people in aggregate are poor, we know that's factually wrong. If you want to say crypto is this malignant thing that should be eradicated because its so morally wrong what people do with their disposable money -- which I dont think you are saying -- leave it to the authoritarian church ladies to preach that apocalyptism. Few as they are, theres enough of their hysteria for one board.
  7. Your issue then is about how people in the market deploy their labor/productivity, not the underlying economic conditions. That talented software engineers are spending their time writing blockchain apps and people are throwing cash at monkey jpegs tell me its a luxury afforded by having good economic conditions. If you could code but were financially destitute, you’d work on improving ad-targeting for google to get that sweet steady W2.
  8. “All of your kids will go pro in something other than sports”
  9. this is categorically false. it can be shown in a million measurements over any time frame that wealth and wages in real terms have increased for factory workers, restaurant workers, non-supervisory workers, low percentile earning workers, ad infinitum. and ive shown it here repeatedly. i dont know why people keep persisting this myth about the common worker….but the answer is embedded in this graphic, from todays Federal Reserve publication of a survey of 11,000 people across all economic statuses: “Everybody else is suffering except for me”. Im no psychologist but uh…is this Messiah Complex or something?
  10. Sometimes it do be like that
  11. i guess most people are net-negative on microsoft? i think its office365 is pretty good mostly. its continually pushing many useful updates and the offline/online handoff is 99% seamless. Teams is good for what is a fairly-complex product. Microsoft Windows, however, remains to be a steaming pile of shit compared to MacOS.
  12. unless you want $$$ bespoke, or $$ made-to-measure with questionable results, you can order a bunch of Lands End shit online, and then find local alterationist to fix it. Lands End traditional cut is very generous for your type of build, and because it has specific-sleeve length sizing, it might even just fit directly
  13. Let he who hasnt approached someones house at 4am in a ski mask to ask for further debate at 5am cast the first stone Totally normal shit to defend.
  14. Those people tend not to have children. #1. bad for the environment #2. requires finding a mate
  15. If the university says “youre not allowed to camp on the campus lawn” its violent rhetoric”. If you trample on the lawn of the facultys private residence at 4am its just an expression of justice.
  16. the Words Are Mean posse characterizing the universities’ coddling of them as “Violent Rhetoric”. is it any surprise the people with this type of perspective would reflexively consider everything a transgression and call everyone a nazi or fascist. these people were simply not bullied as much as they should have been.
  17. right: mo bamba being a huge bust wrong: am i ever??
  18. You may not be familiar with 3rd amendment to the constitution: the right to mercilessly ridicule absolutely retarded leftists on the internet. James madison compels citizens to do so.
  19. Canadian students are even more delusional than American students. Tremendous. Why didnt they also ask for ponies, personally delivered by Santa?
  20. Teamwork and networking and all that jazz. We’re in south france and seafood restaurants dont play that vegetable game bullshit
  21. Having a dietary-restricted person (=vegetarian) in your group destroying all reasonable possibilities for dinner. Dude, stay in your hotel room and order a salad.
  22. Dramatic bitch syndrome
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