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The 2025 CFP Regular Season Is 3/4s Finished - What Do You Think?


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Posted
9 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The past 5 quarters ... less the last 1.  We really haven't put a complete game together.  We feel like the team that needs another week/month/year still.  There's a top 10 team in there somewhere, I'm sure, it just doesn't always show.  We are definitely trending the right direction over the season.

No, inclusive of the last one. I'm talking about a Texas team with an offense that doesn't suck and a defense that is elite and a great ST.

The trend has continued to be more consistent and if Texas has an offense that shows up for the rest of the season they are extremely dangerous. Notre Dame just wants to grind out wins against a shitty schedule. 

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Posted

I'm starting to feel there is potential for this team to be elite. (Let's all just forget about the preseason hype)

Whether that happens this season or next...🤷‍♂️

Either way, reason for optimism. 🤘

Posted
5 hours ago, immamac said:

No, inclusive of the last one. I'm talking about a Texas team with an offense that doesn't suck and a defense that is elite and a great ST.

The trend has continued to be more consistent and if Texas has an offense that shows up for the rest of the season they are extremely dangerous. Notre Dame just wants to grind out wins against a shitty schedule. 

Yes, and even if you go based off pure resume, we have a road loss against the #1 team, they have a home loss against a top 5 team. Road loss to Florida is worse than road loss to Miami, but not by as much as it seemed early in the season. Our wins over OU and Vandy are better than USC and I guess Arkansas? It's all moot because if we win out we will absolutely be ahead of them and if we lose one more we will be behind them. 

Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 2:25 PM, BigHornedLurker said:

I'll just take this opportunity to again once say ND is overrated. 

Their best win is USC , who is not currently ranked. 

They lost to a flailing Miami who probably won't finished ranked. 

Having ND above Texas , and a handful of other similarly ranked teams is horse shit 

Been preaching this. There is NO reason they're Top 10 over Texas or OU IMO.

On 11/3/2025 at 3:21 PM, BigOrange1 said:

If you look at all of two loss teams, it could be argued that Texas has the best resume of the bunch.  I agree that ND is very overrated off of two close losses and one decent win.

Honestly yes...their wins, and the closest anyone's been to OSU on the road loss trump the rest.

On 11/3/2025 at 3:27 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

While I agree with the premise, aggy could give a shit if they get smoked in the CFP. They’ll be more than happy just to be there.

Same for Indiana. 
 

I think Oregon fans would very happy with 2 straight CFP appearances, but I think they need to win a game. Probably beat down a North Texas type team in Round 1, and get rolled in the quarterfinals. 

Honestly I think we'd be happy at this point too.  Maybe they catch fire ala OSU last year late.

On 11/3/2025 at 4:11 PM, Nicole44 said:

I am holding out hope that Pittsburgh will beat Notre Damnit and do us all a favor and knock their asses out of the playoffs. 🤞 

I fucking hope so too.

9 hours ago, immamac said:

This is psychosis. Notre Dame is nowhere near better than Texas especially not the last 5 quarters. 

They haven't handled anything better, they are a solid team that is well coached. 

100% this

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Posted

We’ll see what the committee does tonight. If they’re not going to punish the loss to fOSU, as they’ve said the past they won’t do to encourage big games early in the season, we should be in front of every 1 loss Big 12 and ACC team. 
 

I doubt that happens, but your early ranking is important. Especially if Texas were to lose another game in the regular season. 

Posted

Really like this graph: wins above expectation based on post-game probability.  Probably as close as can be to “are you as good as your record.” Ideally you want to be dead-center and undefeated. That means you are winning because you’re consistently playing winning football. The further away you get, you begin seeing the impact of bad/good luck and opponents blowing games, and maybe coaching idiocy. 
 

A few interesting things: voters are right to be cautious of GT and UVa, but add BYU in there too. Not to say luck can never last (it does) but they’ve already had a lot.

Likewise, the belief that Tenn is better than their record is somewhat justified.  Mizzou and Miami too, for that matter. 

UT and A&M are slightly above expectation but not tremendously so. Most years, some good bounces separate great from good from average seasons.

Scary for everyone: OSU’s great record appears entirely earned and justified. 

image.thumb.jpeg.91ab22485ef065f68e9f91f0842fe04a.jpeg

Posted
9 hours ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I would rank it as follows. 

1. OSU

2. Indiana

3. A&M

4. Bama

5. Georgia

6. Ole Miss

7. Oregon

8. BYU

9. Tech

10. Texas

11. OU

12. Notre Dame

Bama vs Aggies at a neutral site, what’s your line?  I would take Bama at -7.5

Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 9:31 AM, Duane Moore said:

I don’t know what the ones on SEC Rant are saying but the Tennessee fans I’ve heard/read are black pilled, expecting 7-5, and proclaiming that Heupel needs to, at a minimum, fire his DC, give up playcalling responsibilities. The more strident ones have hit the “he’s never going to win us a championship” stage and are ready to blow it all up. 

Man this doesn’t sound familiar at all!

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Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 2:03 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

I am not at all following the logic that the bottom six of the Big XII is better than the bottom six of the SEC. 
 

Auburn beat the dog out of Baylor, which is not at the bottom of the Big XII.  Their defense hasn’t given up more than 24 all year and is legit good (most Auburn stat season ever). MSU beat ASU, which is a mid to good Big XII team. Florida and UK can be plenty dangerous. Arkie has played ranked teams close all year. 
 

Now with fired coaches and turmoil all bets are off. But the bottom of the Big XII wining games against the middle of the Big XII does nothing for me. The top through middle of the SEC is really fucking good. I’ll buy AZ and Iowa State as decent teams but UCF on down is not good at all. 

I got busy and haven't really been able to respond to this thread. 

I wrote this thread with the notion of "what do we think now that we've seen everyone play?" pretty much in the title. Wins at the beginning of the season matter, but they don't matter more than the scope of the season. Fired coaches play a role, injuries play a role, the book getting out on a player matters, etc.

Baylor isn't even in the bottom 6, so I don't even understand mentioning them. Jackson Arnold played the best game of his career in that game and Baylor looked totally unprepared. Baylor has won a game they shouldn't have (SMU) and lost one they shouldn't have (Auburn).

Tell me that Kentucky slapped around a decent MAC team in Toledo and the argument is more compelling. 

That said, I don't agree that the bottom of the SEC is any better. My view is that Arizona and Iowa State would be teams 1 and 2 if we ranked the bottom 12 between the two conferences.

I'd likely go:

1) Arizona - These guys could legitimately finish 9-3. It's kind of dumb that we're talking about them as a bad team.

2) Iowa State - They have the best win of any of the 12 bottom feeders besides the inexplicable UF win over Texas. I don't know why they've collapsed into a 4 game losing streak, even though I watched some of these games. The CU loss is absurd. They could lose to TCU and still wind up 7-5. 

3) MSU - If these idiots have figured out how to win, they could snipe any of the 3 remaining opponents and throw a wrench into the CFP, but I'd need to see another win besides Arkansas in order to believe that they've figured something out.

4) Florida - I think this is the dumbest team in the country. They could beat any team remaining on their schedule, but they'll likely do stupid shit to force a loss rather than take a win. 

5) UCF - I only watched them play UNC, so maybe I'm biased here. I've seen almost every Auburn game and I simply hate that boringass team. 

6) Auburn - we can talk about their defense but their offense looks bottom 20th of the 137 FBS teams. I haven't checked advanced stats to validate, but in watching 40+ games every weekend, at least multiple quarters worth of each, I can't think more than a few I would argue are worse than Auburn's offense. They should be playing Deuce Knight yesterday and I am assuming he must have told them to fuck off and that he's redshirting and transferring. 

7) who the fuck cares, the bottom 6 are all dogshit with Okie State being the only team that any good team could take for granted. Arkansas could fully well beat Texas, but it would be an outlandish and historical upset. WVU just worked UH. SCar has been a competitive loser. UK has thrown in the towel. CU has enough talent to finish 6-6 if their freshman QB can help. 

On 11/3/2025 at 2:54 PM, Nicole44 said:

@closetojumping are there some teams (as the season has progressed) that you feel are worthy of being in the playoffs but will likely be overlooked/left out by the committee? We still have all of November left to play…

I am answering this after the CFP rankings came out, but I was going to mention Iowa first and foremost. We're obviously about to learn more about them, but I like their team and have enjoyed watching them play a few times. Maybe they don't get it done at home against Oregon, I don't know since, as I first wrote, I am not sure of who Oregon really is yet, but I could also see Iowa beating Oregon comfortably and shooting up the CFP rankings. 

If TCU finishes by winning out, they will be a team that comes out of nowhere. They're 6-2 with a loss against a healthy ASU. They close out against 4 teams with a combined record of 27-8, so they would have earned the consideration. 

The only other one that literally no one in the media seems to mention is James Madison. They're 7-1 with a tough road loss to 7-1 Louisville. I think they'll finish 12-1 while the AAC teams cannibalize each other. I could easily see them being the G6 team in the CFP and not a team that anyone wants to play. 

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Posted

Bobby's thoughts on the matter:

Spoiler

Wednesday

 

Bobby Burton

By Bobby Burton

  • 6 hours ago
 

The first CFP rankings were released last night and Texas, coming in at no. 11, got a little more respect than some figured they would.

The Longhorns were ranked above both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, two teams they’ve beaten. That should seem obvious yet the Horns are ranked behind OU in the AP poll.

Also of note, Texas is the second-highest rated two-loss team, behind only Notre Dame who sits at no. 10.

**

The SEC clearly has the attention of the CFP. The conference has six of the top 12 rated teams in the CFP.

3. Texas A&M

4. Alabama

5. Georgia

6. Ole Miss

11. Texas

12. Oklahoma

By comparison, the Big 10 has three teams in the top 10 - Ohio State at no. 1, Indiana at 2 and Oregon at 9.

The Big 12 was a bit of a surprise. BYU and Texas Tech, who play each other this weekend, are nos. 7 and 8, respectively.

Surprisingly, Utah ranked no. 13 overall.

The first ACC team was Virginia at no. 14.

**

So what did we really learn?

- The committee is poised to push at least four SEC teams into the playoffs.

- Notre Dame, despite just one ranked wins against USC, is going to get into the playoffs if they win out.

- The Big 12 has an outside shot at getting three teams in. But will more likely get just two.

- The Big 10 will likely get three teams. Oregon going to two-loss Iowa is a big game this weekend.

- Oklahoma is getting a lot of value from soundly beating Michigan in non-conference play.

**

And one more just because rankings can be maddening…

Miami has the same number of losses as Notre Dame and beat the Irish head to head. But they are ranked about 10 spots lower. Make that make sense, please.

**

Texas must win out to be assured of a playoff spot. That’s been the case since the Horns dropped the contest to Florida more than a month ago.

Is there a back way for the Longhorns into the playoffs with three losses? Sure. But that will require the help of others, and even then might be a long shot.

Bottom line: Texas needs to focus on what they can control. And that’s their games coming up against No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas and No. 3 A&M. Win those, and the playoffs will take care of itself.

 

 

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