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2019 Poker run gooder or die thread


AUS-97HORN

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9 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

 


Turn it around! I actually think the 89 is a fold. We never have the best hand, have no fold equity, aren’t getting odds to draw. We win 1/3ish and are putting in 21k on flop to win 31k. So we need more like 40% equity. QJ is closer just bc he sometimes shows up with a ten which gives us extra outs or he might have the 89 so we have best hand.

 

Having read the last few pages it’s clear my play is much closer to Sooner than it is Lurch, but what about just a call here? Villain is almost busted out of tourney and you might get a free river. I can also see the fold, don’t understand a shove at all. He’s never folding there and you are always behind., right? Or am I missing something?

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Lurch posted he made a math error in the heat of battle. Been there, done that.

The problem with calling is we are getting basically 2-1 on a call but we are only gonna turn a straight about 20% of the time. We need a pretty specific parlay of villain will rarely jam turn but will almost always stack off if we hit to call.

This hand shows how drawing doesn’t work when bets are big and stacks are shallow.

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BTN opens 11k w 50k behind. SB folds. I shove w 55 and he folds a weak ace

 

 

UTG (150k) puts out 7k and they make him go to 8k. CO calls. I call BTN w QTo. BB calls. 38k pot

 

T53. UTG 16k. Only I call. 70k pot

 

T. Chk chk.

 

7. He 16k. I just call. He AA

 

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Gogogo!

BTN opens 11k w 50k behind. SB folds. I shove w 55 and he folds a weak ace
 
 
UTG (150k) puts out 7k and they make him go to 8k. CO calls. I call BTN w QTo. BB calls. 38k pot
 
T53. UTG 16k. Only I call. 70k pot
 
T. Chk chk.
 
7. He 16k. I just call. He AA
 


I actually think these might both be folds pre. I don’t expect we have much fold equity on the 55 hand. And approaching the bubble with a below avg but not desperate stack puts ICM handcuffs on us. Similar to when I had to pukefold 99 in the Venetian MSPT. The value of doubling is just so far below the cost of busting in these specific scenarios.

I would call QTs but not QTo. Just too weak and our chips are just too precious at this stage. If the bubble had burst, it’s ok.

Pretty sure Sooner value bets the river. Didn’t know what I’d do to a shove


You mean I would raise? I don’t hate the call bc of the ICM reasons above. But this shows us why pre is troublesome. We get a top 2% runout for our hand and still not sure.

What are w we doing w ATo UTG+1? I fold. Too nitty?


Fold is fine. Most players (including me) probably over open hands like KQo, AJo, and ATo in early position.
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