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Everything posted by bolverk
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For the record, Israel's war crimes began well before Hamas ever even existed, with the illegal settlements in the West Bank that they continue to expand. In fact, there was a recent announcement of 22 new ones, the most significant expansion in decades. Now, we also mustn't leave out Netanyahu's personal culpability in committing war crimes. If you recall, there's an active warrant out on his head for a few. And, since we all care so deeply about law and order around here and certainly wouldn't be applying a double standard due to our own biases, we obviously shouldnβt overlook the fact that heβs currently in a prolonged corruption trial, which he somehow keeps managing to drag out. Oh, lookie here, heβs actually supposed to be under cross-examination at the moment. Funny, the timing that suddenly he decided to start bombing Iran. You know, now that I think about it, it's possible this guy isn't really on the up-and-up. I wonder why we place so much trust in him.
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Seems like there's some last-ditch shuttle diplomacy going on involving Iran, Oman. Egypt, and China. Probably too late but worth keeping an eye on what, if anything, comes out of this meeting that Iran has denied attending. These are all posts from the AP's updates in chronological order, starting early this morning. https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-attack-conflict-updates
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Tracking Trump Administration and Cabinet picks
bolverk replied to PenelopeWitherspoon's topic in Cloak Room
Duckworth gets her pound of flesh. -
Government agents concealing their identity from the public prevents accountability. That's authoritarianism, plain and simple.
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Youβre not getting it. If the West breaks it, we buy it. It becomes our responsibility to restore order once we topple their government. We have to help them have a peaceful environment so that they can then determine their future. A democratic, secular government doesn't just spring forth from a mound of rubble. It requires quite a bit of tending to, as we are now seeing here back home ourselves. Same as Palestine. The ground conditions in both Gaza and the West Bank have never been in place to allow them their own self-determination. Rather, we, the West, have been complicit in supporting an occupying power that willfully denies them the same, and many on this board have been quite vocal in saying that the Palestinian people are incapable of doing so.
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Hated that when I followed them on FB and before knowing about the Internet Archive trick. Here's a link that will work: https://archive.is/JyBzn
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He was pretty vocal over the weekend about a governor and former VP candidate suggesting that China might be a good mediator but was utterly silent when the current president suggested Putin, as were a couple of other posters.
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I don't get where you're seeing anyone, much less most posters, saying or even implying "that Iranian people are completely incapable of self determination," but agree that it would be a racist statement, were anyone saying that. Speaking only for myself on this, the main concern is that a decision in favor of regime change can't be rushed or taken lightly. We (the West), and most importantly, the Iranians themselves, will have to live with those consequences. To mitigate the negative effects, both direct and indirect, a plan should be in place to prevent bad actors from taking advantage of the situation, which could easily lead to political chaos, violence, and civilian suffering. How do you prevent such an environment from taking hold? Well, someone needs to provide security and keep the peace so that civil society can thrive. Who's going to do that? Obviously, the IRGC, as an organization, and its leaders have $profitted immensely during the reign of the mullahs, so I don't suspect they'll be willing partners in shedding their current wealth and privilege. The regular army? Perhaps, but I know very little about their capacity to do that: leadership, training, etc. An outside force, as Inka has previously suggested, comprised of Canadians, Nordic countries, various Latin American and/or African nations? Is there a coalition to ensure they're on board? I'm asking not so stubborn as to let any hypothetical perfect plan stand in the way of a good one. All I'm asking is, "What is the fucking plan?" if we're going to do this. As for our experiences of the recent past in the region, my doubts aren't with the capacity of the people living in these places. Rather, they're with the capacity of the people, who are not living in these places, making these decisions. Now, THIS is what I'd call implied racism.
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Lots of silly, fun memes in there, but this offers a good explanation for why it resonates, telling us, "You too can make a difference." https://www.reddit.com/r/andor/comments/1ldnj4a/david_graeber_anthropologist_explains_why_andor/
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I wonder if they'll be gold-plated (painted), like the other tacky shit he's slapped all over the White House.
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Right, so let's be very clear and not pretend this is a necessary or defensive war. It's very much a preemptive war of choice in which Israel (and the US, if we join in) are absolutely the aggressors, determining for the Iranian people that their government (no matter how shitty it might be) is no longer fit to rule there and acknowledging that the Iranian people will just have to pay the price...along with all the other foreseeable, and unpredictable, consequences (i.e., regional instability and whatever that might do to Middle Eastern countires, the price of oil and whatever that might do to the global economy, terrorism, international relations, and all the rest). Let's be clear-eyed about this. There will be a price to pay. If it's worth it, then fine. But no one here or in leadership should come back in a few months or years and say, "Damn, I didn't expect it to cause X, Y, and Z," and then try to place the blame on someone else when they can't put out the fire fast or thorough enough.
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It's like people haven't heard the song "The First Noel" a bajillion times before.
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I like how he phrases the flag poles as being "a GIFT from me." (imagining that in Smeagol's voice) At least we'll have something to remember him by.
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I pretty much agree with all that -- it's likely too late for any other scenario other than the course we're currently on unless, for whatever reason, Trump surprises us all and decides to not go through with it. If that's indeed the case, then we can just start discussing the duration of the war and degree of suffering this will cause over the short- and long-term, including the severity of blowback and bloody consequences.
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Well, yeah, I'm definitely old enough to remember that. It was the Sunni radicalization or conservative crackdown in Saudi part that I didn't have context for. I didn't realize that Saudi Arabia had ever been anything other than how we've known it.
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That all may well be true, but I'm trying to figure out or predict something unexpected that Iran might do next. If they're content to just draw it out, and lose, then that's a separate discussion, involving lots and lots of death and destruction. I just felt like there'd been enough talk about Bibi and DonDon for the moment, but I'm not going to force the topic if no one wants to try to envision other possible scenarios.
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Thought experiment: Let's game this out from the perspective of the ayatolla and the mullahs, assuming they want to A) continue living and B) stay in power. What should they do? I mean, they don't have a lot of friends that could do shit to help at the moment (SYRIA - gone as an ally; HEZBOLLAH - neutered; HAMAS/RUSSIA - kinda tied up for the moment; HOUTHIS - no real "reach") and even fewer military options (fight to the last man or last ballistic, I guessin the hope of drawing Israel/the US into costly on-the-ground fighting but this would inevitably lead to losing power, which kinda goes against assumption B from above). Almost every imaginable outcome from continuing to fight is terrible for them. If I were them, I think I'd go ahead and renounce any domestic uranium enrichment program tout de suite as a first gambit in hopes of immediately stopping the bombs and eliminating the initial justification for the war and, therefore, increasing international pressure on the Netanyahu and Trump regimes to announce a ceasefire. Would that be enough? I guess it might be enough to get Trump to simmer down for a short bit and give isolationist Republicans and Democratic doves enough time to pass a resolution requiring congressional approval for US strikes with WMDs off the table. It's a long shot for a couple of CR reasons, but at this point, I can't think of any other "play" for them that meets the two requirements: staying alive and in power. NOTE: I'm not addressing the long-term implications of this, only the short-term avoidance of more bombs and regime change, which I assume is what a smart, rational actor would want (Yeah, yeah, I know, "But Bolverk, they're not rational!" Come on, man, it's just a thought experiment that might help the Surly hivemind think shit through without us all hating each other more than we already do). Anyone else got other takes on what they might do or flaws in the above?
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Thanks for the YouTube link. I was only 8 when that happened and had forgotten all about it, but it brought back some really vague memories, as my dad religiously watched the news at dinnertime. What I had no idea about was how it altered Saudi domestic affairs and empowered the Wahabbi clerics, which in turn, no doubt, radicalized a bunch of Muslims and possibly contributed to a lot of shit the world has been experiencing since then. Itβs remarkable how a single incident like that could have the power to alter the course of world events in unforeseeable ways.
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One final question to anyone in particular before I take off for a while: What's the likelihood of Saudi's own Shiite population getting all hot and bothered by this stuff? It seems there's a big concentration of them in the eastern part of that country. I realize they're Arabs, not Persians, but do they feel beholden to, or loyal to, Iran or any place in it, like Sunnis do Mecca/Medina?
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I appreciate your patience in responding to my multiple "just asking questions" posts, but if we're going down this road to toppling another government, I'd really like us to have thoroughly discussed the consequences in addition to the casus belli. Bolded would be my biggest worry. You know far more about the region than I ever will, so I'll take your word about the Kurds remaining peaceful, not trying to break away, and I had some idea about the folks in SE Iran already. How about all these other groups, though? Do any of the others have breakaway tendencies, or do other neighboring countries have revanchist claims on Iranian territory?
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Right, no sectarian violence, but there could absolutely be strong ideological differences. It's not like there isn't an example of the last Shah being deposed. And as for SE Iran, isn't that area dominated by Baluchis, the same group that's in western Pakistan? Haven't those guys been in some kind of low-level rebellion against the Pakistani government? If so, what's the risk of them uniting and trying to break off from both Iran and Pakistan to create their own country? And, then of course, the installation of western troops (US or otherwise spread out trying to protect the oil & gas fields, as well as all the downstream infrastructure: refineries, pipelines, etc. Are Americans prepared to see US soldiers getting bombed protecting all those assets and facilities? Finally, what's the obligation of the Israelis under the principle of "you broke it; you fix it" if they're successful in their push for regime change? Obviously, they're not going in as occupiers, but should they pay some of the bills since they're the lead in all this?
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If Netanyahu's goal is not only the destruction of Iran's capacity to build nuclear weapons -- and I believe it is, given the expansion of targets beyond those sites (e.g., state TV) AND his repeated calls for the Iranian people to rise up -- what's the on-the-ground situation in Iran if they/we are successful in toppling the regime? Recall the power vacuum left in Iraq when the Baathists were taken out, instability in Syria during their civil war, and the subsequent rise of ISIS in the region. What's the plan for nation-building after a war for regime change? Are we confident that the people would support the son of the Shah? What happens with all the nuclear material that Iran has built up? I sure hope Israel/US has a plan for that, if it is indeed the goal.
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According to this poll discussed in an Israeli newspaper, it seems most Israelis are A-OKAY with ethnic cleansing in the occupied territories, and about half are in favor of outright genocide. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-05-28/ty-article-magazine/.premium/yes-to-transfer-82-of-jewish-israelis-back-expelling-gazans/00000197-12a4-df22-a9d7-9ef6af930000 A recent survey of Israeli Jews reveals a growing comfort with the idea of forcibly expelling Palestinians β both from Gaza and from within Israel's borders. The poll also found that a significant minority supports the mass killing of civilians in enemy cities captured by the Israeli army. These disturbing trends reflect the radicalization of religious Zionism since Israel's 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, and the failure of secular Israeli Jews to articulate a vision that challenges Jewish supremacy. Commissioned in March by Pennsylvania State University and conducted by Tamir Sorek for the Israeli polling firm Geocartography Knowledge Group, the survey polled a representative sample of 1,005 Jewish Israelis. It posed a series of "impolite" questions β topics typically avoided in mainstream Israeli polling β about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to the results, 82 percent of respondents supported the expulsion of Gaza's residents, while 56 percent favored expelling Palestinian citizens of Israel. These figures mark a sharp rise from a 2003 survey, in which support for such expulsions stood at 45 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Religious interpretations play a key role in shaping these views. Nearly half (47 percent) of respondents agreed that "when conquering an enemy city, the Israel Defense Forces should act as the Israelites did in Jericho under Joshua's command β killing all its inhabitants." Sixty-five percent said they believed in the existence of a modern-day incarnation of Amalek, the Israelite biblical enemy whom God commanded to wipe out in Deuteronomy 25:19. Among those believers, 93 percent said the commandment to erase Amalek's memory remains relevant today. This apocalyptic rhetoric has found fertile ground in religious Zionist circles, where leaders have long advocated for such extreme policies. One of the most influential figures to call for such policies is Rabbi Yitzchak Ginsburgh, head of the Od Yosef Chai Yeshiva in the West Bank settlement of Yitzhar. In January 2005, just before Israel's dismantling of its Gaza settlements, Ginsburgh delivered a sermon near the Knesset that laid out a vision fundamentally at odds with the secular Zionist ideal of a "Jewish and democratic state." Ginsburgh gained notoriety for his pamphlet "Baruch Hagever" ("Baruch the Man"), which praised Baruch Goldstein, the settler who massacred 29 Muslim worshippers in Hebron's Cave of the Patriarchs in 1994. Following the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, Ginsburgh was placed under administrative detention. He later endorsed a book that sanctioned the killing of non-Jewish women and children. Unlike the early leaders of the Gush Emunim settler movement, Ginsburgh views any Palestinian presence in the Land of Israel as a desecration of God's name. His 2005 sermon, now known as "Time to Crack the Nut," was a call to embrace Jewish supremacy in the Land of Israel. It prepared his followers for mass violence and ethnic cleansing β policies that, two decades later, appear to be unfolding in Gaza. With Ginsburgh's vision seemingly coming to fruition, it is worth revisiting the ideological framework he proposed. This is a long piece. It goes on about the history of this Ginsburgh guy and his movement, but in all the discussions on this board, we rarely talk about the radicalization that's taking place among Israel's population (free link): https://archive.is/lRf9g
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