Jump to content
  • My Not So Short Story on GME


    Eastwood

     

      

    On 1/25/2021 at 10:18 AM, Storm the Field said:

    GME at 9:10 $88.60

    9:50 $144.42

    10:10 $88.09

    What in the hell was that all about?

     

    On 1/25/2021 at 10:38 AM, Eastwood said:

    I'll post a recap of everything when the dust settles on this. It's been an interesting ride and it has caused me some concerns over contagion in the broader market.

    I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the length because this post is me spiking the football and other than banter about the moves GME makes in the future, this is the last time I ever dig into the fundamentals of the GME trade.

    What we saw today was covering either due to what is called a gamma squeeze or a short squeeze. Maybe a mix of both. We won't really know until later, possibly at the end of close Wednesday when brokerages like TD update their short interest. A gamma squeeze occurs as the price moves up, crossing the thresholds of strike prices of calls that will soon be expiring. Market Makers use the Delta of an option to determine how many shares of a stock they should purchase in preparation of possibly covering the calls when they are exercised, either by the buyer of the call or upon expiring in the money. As the share price goes up, combined with the days getting closer to expiry, up goes the Delta, up goes the amount of shares the MMs buy. Last Friday, every call on the board for GME was in the money at expiry. I'll repeat: EVERY CALL ON THE BOARD WAS ITM AT EXPIRY. I don't know if that's ever happened in the history of the market. That means that if every call was exercised, 11.7 million shares would need to be transferred over to the new owners today and tomorrow. Now, as the Delta on a lot of the lower strikes were already at 1 and the shares already (hopefully for the call seller) purchased, it shouldn't be a big deal. However, the big pop happened ON Friday, not before. That caused a mad scramble in the after hours Friday, today, and possibly tomorrow for those who are gambling on the price decreasing further before they fill those calls. So, that's a gamma squeeze. Price creeps up, MMs who sell calls end up buying shares to cover, causing the price to climb higher, and then creating essentially a feedback loop spiking the price when combined with buying from retail or pops on positive news.

    What is happening, and may continue to happen, is the result of hedge funds and possibly Bank of America rampantly shorting GME over the course of a year hoping that it goes zero and they then get to pocket everything and give nothing back. The short float on December 31st was 140% and the institutional ownership was 117%. But how is such a thing possible? They borrowed shares to either 1.) sell, never intending to buy them back and return them because they were hell bent on bankrupting GME, or 2.) lent out those already borrowed shares that they never intended to give back anyway to collect the premium, creating a borrowed share of a borrowed share. They would also buy dips incrementally, amassing large positions, sell calls and buy puts with a quick expiry, then dump all of the shares they accumulated at once while simultaneously shorting to tank the price and pocket the premiums on the options they bought and sold. Then, when that wasn't enough, they sold naked shorts. They sold shares they didn't even have or even exist. They injected "synthetic shares" into the market. Synthetic, fugazi, fogazi. It's a wazi, it's a woozi. They're fairy dust. They don't exist. They're not fucking real.

    ispWN9.gif

    But the people and institutional investors they sold them to bought the right to own the shares. And those banks and hedge funds are obligated to deliver them. But now there aren't enough shares to go around. There's an infinite demand for shares, but a finite supply. In a total share recall event, the lenders of the shorted shares could recall every share on borrow and still be 21 MILLION shares short of demand. The banks and hedge funds that created that SHOULD be on the hook. It SHOULD be illegal. Think of how depressed the price was because of it. Think of the loss of market cap, which led to lowered credit ratings, which led to higher interest rates and less borrowing power, and the layoffs and store closures that followed. Awful. The price should go to infinity because the demand the banks and hedge funds created will become infinity.

    Boomers can bitch and moan about RH and college kids dumping their stimmy into GME all they want, but the reality is that a bunch of boomer bankers and hedge funds created a situation that should be legally, economically, and financially impossible. Boomers want to call what retail investors are doing "market manipulation." However, anyone who dug into the situation enough saw the writing on the wall. Honest to goodness due diligence combined with simple supply/demand economics combined with paying attention to the new market trend of retail investors told anyone interested all they needed to know.

    This was me back in September:

    Quote

    I know for the bulk of you guys in here that it is too much of a leap of faith to go long on GME, but there is profit to be made on it in the last quarter, being console launch and holiday season. Especially if it hits $10 and the Robinhood millionaires show up. Even more so if another round of direct stimulus is announced.

    The price hadn't even hit $10, yet, when I said that. The house of cards had already been built. A fan had been placed in front of it. And everyone told me that I was crazy for thinking the house of cards would fall over. It wasn't a secret. It was in plain fucking sight. And we are finding out it is everywhere. Wall Street and old guys in banking and finance can harumph all they want about how a bunch of dumb wage earners are gaming their system to make a buck, but I think the reality is that the curtain has started getting pulled back on Old Man Oz. Take me, for example. I've given a detailed breakdown and have proof in this very thread that I had produced this investment thesis MONTHS before it was mainstream and materialized. I gave my credentials above. Want to know how long I've been actively investing? Since March. Same as all the Robinhood punks. All it takes for a large chunk of the population to be competent in anything is 1. Time 2. Education/training, and 3. Financial resources. In March, there was the perfect storm of 1. COVID lockdowns, 2. The internet and educational resources on the various trading platforms, and 3. Stimulus - The ultimate Other People's Money. Millions of $3k hedge funds popped up all over the nation and had the time, education, and money to be just dangerous enough. I traded in a paper account on Think Or Swim for 30 days and was then off to the races. I developed a momentum trading strategy where I combined candlestick patterns, moving average patterns, the RSI, and the Elliot Wave. Not only that, I also voraciously consumed anything I could get my hands on about market history, valuations, and trends. I bought and sold stocks, bought options, and sold covered calls and generated a 10% return over the course of about a month. Then I stumbled on GME, halted all active trading, liquidated any outstanding options, sat on my KO, XOM, and PFE (which was my worst trade) shares and positioned myself into GME. My return is now over 1000%. Either I'm some kind of wonder boy who picked all this up quickly because I'm a high functioning autistic person...

    SparklingOfficialAtlasmoth-max-1mb.gif

    Or maybe this shit just ain't as hard as Wall Street wants us to think it is. And maybe Wall Street was so habitually comfortable with how little people knew about their industry in the past that they didn't even bother concealing their moves because they didn't think retail investors would know how to play the other side. Well, the secret's out. This new batch of retail investors spent the last decade learning how to min/max various economic systems in video games. They are accustomed to dumping hours of time learning how to maximize returns on digital assets. They went from watching hours of YouTube videos on how to mine diamonds and make a Fortune 3 pick axe in Minecraft to watching hours of how to turn a couple grand into 5 figures. In some cases, 6 or 7 figures.

    As I stated earlier, I sold half of my position in GME today, but I still firmly believe in the trade I executed. I am now concerned about two things, one being specific to GME. I think the invisible hand of the free market is about to get absolutely doomfisted by either the government or big banks. I think a lot of institutions out there are shook. When GME hit $150 and other short squeezes were popping, a huge market sell-off occurred. I think funds were liquidating to cover their losses because margin calls were going out. In GME alone today, short sellers lost $1.6 billion according to Business Insider. Melvin Capital, supposedly the biggest short seller of GME out there, is down a whopping 30% for 2021, so far. They manage billions. We learned in 2008 that these banks and funds actually interweave into a structural support for the entire financial system. If a multi-billion dollar part of that support structure fails, it increases the strain on the others, and then another fails, and then we have a cascade failure. I think GME and the big shorts come together and negotiate a share purchase of newly issued shares under the condition that they are immediately transferred to the rightful owners to get the short float below 100%. This is actually extremely bullish for GME. They erase their remaining debt, buy out of all of their bad leases, and increase their cash long enough for the turn around. That's why I only sold half of my position. I'm long GME. In Ryan Cohen I trust. But I also think the government steps in and does something to try to fix the rest of the market. As history has shown us, this doesn't mean punishing the banks who created the situation in the first place. No, they're going to increase the regulations on the retail investors. That could also have grave, unintended consequences when retail cashes out all at once.

    So, I feel really good about today, but there may be grave consequences in future. I'll end with the cringiest thing possible: be a retail trader who uses a scene from The Big Short in one of his posts.

     

    • Hook 'Em 2

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Back on the move up....I ain't going to lie, I'm hoping this thing gets over with soon...this rise and then get manipulated down then rise again is getting old....I just want my $$$ so I can reinvest and not check portfolio everyday

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    40 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

    Back on the move up....I ain't going to lie, I'm hoping this thing gets over with soon...this rise and then get manipulated down then rise again is getting old....I just want my $$$ so I can reinvest and not check portfolio everyday

    It’s hard to not pull the trigger today.  Our money manager threatened me within inch of my life if I did.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    hell of a recovery
    Well that's because the down pressure has been manipulated hardcore.....you don't lose 30% on 10mil volume or whatever it has been dropping last few days
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    hell of a recovery
    Well that's because the down pressure has been manipulated hardcore.....you don't lose 30% on 10mil volume or whatever it has been dropping last few days
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Quote
    •  
    Stephen Totilo
    Wed, March 24, 2021, 2:44 PM·1 min read
    •  

    Eight members of GameStop's board of directors will leave the company after the gaming retailer's annual meeting in June, according to a new filing.

    Why it matters: The "significant changes" will ensure a near-total transformation of board leadership for a company riding a stock market rollercoaster. It also affirms that new board members, led by Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen, will chart the company's future.

     

    The planned exits, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, include Reggie Fils-Aimé, who was appointed to the board last March and who had previously become a gaming industry celebrity as the long-time president of Nintendo's American division.

    • Also leaving is Kathy Vrabeck, a former executive at Activision. Her plan to exit was announced in January.

    • That will leave the board with far less games industry expertise.

    Between the lines: Cohen has been calling for a company shake-up since late last year, pushing for a shift to digital sales.

    • In early March, GameStop announced that Cohen would chair a "strategic planning and capital allocation committee" to figure out the company's future. None of the eight departing board members were on it.

    https://news.yahoo.com/most-gamestops-board-step-down-194419019.html?guccounter=1

    The ship is starting to turn. Just hope it isn't in the Suez Canal.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Yeah saw that the other day.....hedgies need to let this pop so it can crash back down and they can recoup loses on the way back up and when it pops if they bought some calls and whatnot

    Finished after-hours at 291$....57%increase on the day

    I don't think gamestop is going to help them out by issuing shares after they shorted them down to like 4$ a share

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Gme announces it filed for right to sell 3.5 million shares "at market" from time to time....

    Stock crashed 28$ on this news but....

    It's only 3.5 million shares, that's peanuts
    There is no time or price set just the right to sell shares.

    This is gme corp trying to make some cash when this thing pops imo(others also)...


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Is shit going to get real....in europe ceo of danske bank resigns over money laundering scandal

    Abn amro fined 480m€ for money laundering... dominoes coming???

    Wrong thread....oh well

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roaring-kitty-acquires-more-shares-235716087.html

    Quote

    The man known as "Roaring Kitty" on social media, whose online posts helped spark January's trading frenzy in GameStop Corp, exercised call options on the stock to acquire 50,000 more shares at a strike price of $12, Bloomberg reported.

    Bloomberg cited a screenshot of Keith Gill's portfolio showing that he exercised 500 GameStop call options expiring Friday, when the stock closed at $154.69.

    The screenshots were posted on Reddit by Gill, and his mother confirmed the posts to Bloomberg. Reuters could not immediately reach the Gills for comment on Saturday.

    His total investment in GameStop is now worth more than $30 million, giving him a profit of nearly $20 million, Bloomberg said. Gill has 200,000 shares in the company, the report said.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roaring-kitty-acquires-more-shares-235716087.html
    The man known as "Roaring Kitty" on social media, whose online posts helped spark January's trading frenzy in GameStop Corp, exercised call options on the stock to acquire 50,000 more shares at a strike price of $12, Bloomberg reported.
    Bloomberg cited a screenshot of Keith Gill's portfolio showing that he exercised 500 GameStop call options expiring Friday, when the stock closed at $154.69.
    The screenshots were posted on Reddit by Gill, and his mother confirmed the posts to Bloomberg. Reuters could not immediately reach the Gills for comment on Saturday.
    His total investment in GameStop is now worth more than $30 million, giving him a profit of nearly $20 million, Bloomberg said. Gill has 200,000 shares in the company, the report said.
     
    Not only did he exercise options he bought 50k more shares to get to 200k shares....
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    So domo capital tweeted out a screenshot from gme regarding upcoming vote stating there is
    70,761,778 shares outstanding.

    Reddit then proceeds to go thru the filing which list insider share holders(suits and hedgies) and come up with 55,722,368.

    Making the float 15mil.....so it is very possible retail owns the float.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    The float might be closer to 26m...seems to be some discussion on the math going on

    Either way it appears retail owns the float as even conservatively like I posted earlier in thread if you take half of wallstreetbets and give them an avg of 10 shares that is 45mil shares....

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    GME completed a 3.5 million share offer today, injecting those shares into the market and earning around $500 million. Share price actually went up, finishing the day up 11.74% at $168.93 and touching $198 in the after hours. With $500 million in fresh cash and the shedding of under-performing stores during COVID, bankruptcy is now a distant dream of short sellers.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    This is fucking rocket fuel. If anyone is reading this and not buying as much GME as they can this is your last chance (not financial advice, I just like the stock)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    11 hours ago, RGBIII said:

    This is fucking rocket fuel. If anyone is reading this and not buying as much GME as they can this is your last chance (not financial advice, I just like the stock)

    Whats the latest bull case on GME. Short interest appears to be way down, so are people still hoping for a squeeze? Or is the play now that they will successfully restructure from a physical retailer into  a new company, which presumably takes years.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Whats the latest bull case on GME. Short interest appears to be way down, so are people still hoping for a squeeze? Or is the play now that they will successfully restructure from a physical retailer into  a new company, which presumably takes years.
    To your first question, the commonly held belief among squeeze enthusiasts is that the short interest is not being accurately reported and that the stock is "irreparably shorted" (that's how I would put it, at least). There is no way to sort through which shares are synthetic and which are real, there are probably more bona fide owners of the stock than there are shares available, and barring bankruptcy or a legitimizing of all synthetic shares, which would dilute the stock, there is always the potential that large short positions get obliterated and margin called.
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, Eastwood said:
    2 hours ago, Blotto said:
    Whats the latest bull case on GME. Short interest appears to be way down, so are people still hoping for a squeeze? Or is the play now that they will successfully restructure from a physical retailer into  a new company, which presumably takes years.

    To your first question, the commonly held belief among squeeze enthusiasts is that the short interest is not being accurately reported and that the stock is "irreparably shorted" (that's how I would put it, at least). There is no way to sort through which shares are synthetic and which are real, there are probably more bona fide owners of the stock than there are shares available, and barring bankruptcy or a legitimizing of all synthetic shares, which would dilute the stock, there is always the potential that large short positions get obliterated and margin called.

    What Clint said. Also I like their pivot plan

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    This^

    Also I came to add that per screen shots(fidelity) and reddit that the buying orders have far out weighed the sells yet the price goes down

    Saw stuff floating around reddit that people overseas are claiming their buy orders are coming back unfulfilled and price keeps going down on low volume.

    Lots of shady stuff if true...take with grain of salt since it's the internet and I'm not interested in deep diving to dbl check, but I agree lots of shady shut has went down since end of January

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, Bone3421 said:

    This^

    Also I came to add that per screen shots(fidelity) and reddit that the buying orders have far out weighed the sells yet the price goes down

    Saw stuff floating around reddit that people overseas are claiming their buy orders are coming back unfulfilled and price keeps going down on low volume.

    Lots of shady stuff if true...take with grain of salt since it's the internet and I'm not interested in deep diving to dbl check, but I agree lots of shady shut has went down since end of January

    Retail owns the float

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Now they can't even get the volume right...every site(yahoo,webull, robinhood) showed gme closed at 2.7m volume but in after hours multiple places are now saying 1.7m volume

    Lots of "glitches" happening lately....

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I may be late to the party here but here's this piece that came out 3 days ago.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/bill-and-melinda-gates-e2-80-99s-divorce-was-a-predictable-market-phenomenon-and-bullish-for-gamestop-e2-80-94-allow-us-to-explain/ar-BB1gmiKd

    Quote

    The end of Bill and Melinda Gates’s marriage is just the first in what will be a slew of billionaire divorces, and it’s all bullish for GameStop’s stock

    And it was just another Tuesday on retail-investor social media.

    The announcement that Bill and Melinda Gates are divorcing caught the whole world by surprise, but by Monday evening members of the Reddit board r/GME had unearthed an almost two-month-old post by user Jobom3 tying a spike in borrowed GameStop shares to the likelihood that billionaire hedge funders and their wealthy investors were increasing their short positions as part of a plan to prepare for their impending divorces.

    On the morning of March 11, a Reddit post pointed out that more than 1 million GameStop shares had been borrowed in premarket action, a signal that pro-GameStop Redditors interpreted as a signal of a new skirmish in the ongoing conflict between hedge funds trying to short GameStop into oblivion and Regular Joe investors hell-bent on proving that the videogame retailer is fundamentally undervalued and should not be killed off by wealthy Wall Street traders playing a rigged game.

    “Another 1 million shares borrowed from ETFs in pre-market …” blared a Reddit post headline that morning, with a screenshot appearing to show the availability of GameStop shares from ETFs exposed to the stock.

    Minutes later, Jobom3 piped up with this theory: “I think they are just buying time to secure their personal assets,” read the comment. “Moving them to offshore or divorce their wives and put the money in their name. Tricks like that. At least that’s what I would do.”

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 5/7/2021 at 4:46 PM, Incredulity said:

    unrelated to GME but in relation to above on WSB

     

    had no idea who this dude was(CEO of Enron Energy Services from March 1997 until January 2001 and CEO of Enron Xcelerator, a venture capital division of Enron, from February 2001 until June 2001), but that's not important.

    Quote

    Pai's frequent strip club visits during his time with Enron led to an affair with stripper Melanie Fewell (who was also married), and resulted in a pregnancy. Upon learning of the affair, Pai's then-wife of over 20 years, Lanna, with whom he has two biological children, filed for divorce. To satisfy the financial terms of his divorce settlement, Pai cashed out approximately $250 million of his Enron stock  just months before the company's stock price dramatically collapsed and it filed for bankruptcy protection. After the divorce, Pai and Fewell married. 

    The bolded decision is questionable, but thats gotta be the most fortuitous interaction in the history of scrip clubs. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 5/10/2021 at 7:54 PM, Blotto said:

    The bolded decision is questionable, but thats gotta be the most fortuitous interaction in the history of scrip clubs. 

    Ok honey, we’re about get get screwed out of bajillions of dollars... but I have a plan.  It involves me spending countless hours at the scrip club, and impregnating a scripper. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    at a broad level, for the last weeks, a lot of big money went off the sidelines and waited to pile back in, and the short interest % picked up across the board as general sentiment went bearish.

    some orchestration of short squeezes across the market today - gme, mvis, amc, chinese shit like gotu and eh and more.  big boys turfing with one another.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    8 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

    Anyone here follow WSB obsessively and wanna fill us plebes in on their next big YOLO stocks pretty please??

    VTSAX

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    22 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

    Anyone here follow WSB obsessively and wanna fill us plebes in on their next big YOLO stocks pretty please??

    I only follow GME and AMC for the most part. All the other stocks they talk about end up jumping before you have a chance to hop on. AMC and GME are very unique, once in a lifetime 

    • Drool 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 minute ago, Bone3421 said:
    9 minutes ago, Incredulity said:
    Still diamond handing GME.

    If that is a question...then yes

    It's an update on my NON-YOLO of a position.

     

    I know you care, don't deny it.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I will 💎 🙌🏻 the fuck out of GME. This isn’t even close to the real squeeze. Wait till the voter count comes out and it’s shown how much retail owns the float...AMC I’m gonna ride it just long enough to put my profits in GME

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    17 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

    I will 💎 🙌🏻 the fuck out of GME. This isn’t even close to the real squeeze. Wait till the voter count comes out and it’s shown how much retail owns the float...AMC I’m gonna ride it just long enough to put my profits in GME

    yeah, i'm still holding onto gme. felt late to the party, but it's been a weird ride.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    16 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

    yeah, i'm still holding onto gme. felt late to the party, but it's been a weird ride.

    Nothing like it and nothing will ever be like it IMO. I had 5 shares at like $120 on the first wave, when it hit $40 I went bat shit and bought all I could, been averaging up ever since

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...