If we beat aggy they would need both Auburn (26.5% ESPN Analytics chance to win) and Mississippi State (21.6% ESPN Analytics chance to win) to upset Bama and Ole Miss, otherwise they will have been knocked out of the SEC championship. That comes out to an over 94% chance of being kept out of the SEC title game if aggy loses to us on Friday.
Interesting to me, if aggy beats us, that would go a long way towards keeping Georgia out of the SEC title game (Bama would have the head to head and the higher cumulative opponent winning percentage), so bitchtit Kirby Smart probably will be rooting for us on Friday.
This is how it works out, check my math.
Week of Nov 26, teams at the top of the SEC standings:
aggy (7-0) to play TEX (Nov 28)
Georgia (7-1 [Bama]) done with Conference Play
Ole Miss (6-1 [Georgia]) to play MISS ST (Nov 28)
Alabama (6-1 [Oklahoma]) to play AUB (Nov 29)
If Texas Wins:
aggy 7-1
Georgia 7-1
Ole Miss 7-1 or 6-2
Alabama 7-1 or 6-2
That is four different outcomes:
Only aggy and Georgia are 7-1 at the end of the weeek
Both will advance to SEC championship game
If all four teams are 7-1
Alabama and Georgia would play for SEC championship
No complete round-robin
No team has beaten all three of the other 7-1 teams
No team has lost to all three of the other 7-1 teams
There are no Common Conference Opponents among the four 7-1 teams
The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear first place team (Alabama)
Texas A&M opponents' conference winning percentage: 28.125% to 29.69%
Auburn (1-7 [lost to Bama because we are assuming Bama is 7-1])
Miss St (1-7 [lost to Ole Miss because we are assuming Ole Miss is 7-1])
Florida (2-6)
Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
Mizzou (4-4 or 3-5 [Arkansas])
SCar (1-7)
Texas (6-2)
Georgia opponents' conference winning percentage: 46.875% to 48.44%
Tenn (5-3 or 4-4 [Vandy])
Alabama (7-1)
Kentucky (2-6)
Auburn (1-7)
Ole Miss (7-1)
Florida (2-6)
Miss St (1-7)
Texas (6-2)
Ole Miss opponents' conference winning percentage: 35.94% to 37.5%
Kentucky (2-6)
Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
Georgia (7-1)
Oklahoma (6-2 or 5-3 [LSU])
SCar (1-7)
Florida (2-6)
Miss St (1-7)
Alabama opponents' conference winning percentage: 50% to 51.56%
Georgia (7-1)
Vandy (6-2 or 5-3 [Tenn])
Mizzou (4-4 or 3-5 [Arkansas])
Tenn (5-3 or 4-4 [Vandy])
SCar (1-7)
LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
Oklahoma (6-2 or 5-3 [LSU])
Auburn (1-7)
Alabama's opponent would be determined by the procedure for resolving 3+ team ties for second place (Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M) which would come down to cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents (Georgia advances)
No complete round robin among those three teams
No team has beaten, nor lost to, both of the other two
Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M have the same record (2-0) against Common Conference Opponents (Miss St, Florida)
The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear second place team (Georgia)
Only Ole Miss loses this weekend
Alabama and Georgia would play for SEC championship
No complete round-robin
No team has beaten both of the other 7-1 teams
No team has lost to both of the other 7-1 teams
There are no common conference opponents amount the three 7-1 teams
The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear first place team (Alabama)
Alabama percentage unaffected by Ole Miss loss,
Georgia percentage unaffected by Ole Miss loss because Miss St win offsets the effect,
Texas A&M percentage too low even after adjusting upward for Miss St win
Alabama's opponent would be determined by the procedure for resolving a two-team tie for second place (Texas A&M and Georgia)
No h2h
Common Opponents (Auburn [Even 2-0], Miss St [Even 2-0], Florida [Even 2-0], Texas [Adv Georgia, 1-1])
Georgia advances
Only Alabama loses this weekend
Georgia and Ole Miss would play for the SEC Championship
No complete round-robin among Georgia, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss
No team has beaten both of the other 7-1 teams
No team has lost to both of the other 7-1 teams
LSU is the only common opponent, who all three teams beat
The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear first place team (Georgia)
Georgia's opponent would be determined by the procedure for resolving a two-team tie for second place (Texas A&M and Ole Miss)
No h2h
Same records versus Common Opponents (Miss St [2-0], Fla [2-0], Ark [2-0], LSU [2-0], SCar [2-0])
The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear second place team (Ole Miss)
Texas A&M opponents' conference winning percentage: 31.25% to 32.81%
Auburn (2-6)
Miss St (1-7)
Florida (2-6)
Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
Mizzou (4-4 or 3-5 [Arkansas])
SCar (1-7)
Texas (6-2)
Ole Miss opponents' conference winning percentage: 35.94% to 37.5%
Kentucky (2-6)
Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
Georgia (7-1)
Oklahoma (6-2 or 5-3 [LSU])
SCar (1-7)
Florida (2-6)
Miss St (1-7)