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CHIEF

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by CHIEF

  1. Amen. Get them started in philanthropy early on. CHIEF Jr.'s cause is Cast for Kids. Our Tri-toon has a gate large enough to get a wheelchair through, he loads up the 5-6 kids that are in a wheelchair, and takes them fishing once or twice per year. One of our best friends has a son with severe autism, his son and mine have been friends since they started tailgating with us when the boys were about 12. We are on a hunting lease together, CHIEF Jr. watches over him like a hawk, takes care of him, interacts with him. It kinda gives his Dad a break. My mother has a 401c that all of the proceeds go to printing Bibles in African languages that are spoken by too few for the Gideons to print. We both put work in for that. We all contribute to James Robison's ministry that drills water wells in Africa. It is important to let your kid know they have it better than most, and not to be a selfish asshole, and contribute to make society better. CHIEF
  2. That minority, farmers and ranchers, is vital to our nation's food supply. EV (tractors and haul trucks) will not work for their needs. Being forced to buy EV $1.2mm tractors and $250k haul trucks isn't going to happen. We are still going to need cheap fossil fuels. CHIEF
  3. What do you think the range would be on a F-350 EV pulling 24000 lbs. of a trailer full of cattle will be? 50 miles to the sale barn, and a return trip, reload, and make another run? Do you have to stop for 8 hours in the middle of the job to recharge? CHIEF
  4. I would say the cause during the 1970s to the present was increases in vehicles fuel mileage and efficiency offset the increase in demand. After the fuel shortage of 1973, 6 mpg muscle cars were traded in for Pintos, Chevettes, Cavaliers, and Golfs. Small cars started getting upwards of 25-30 mpg in the 70s and 80s. Large vehicles started getting that in the 90s-2000s with fuel injection. Also, OPEC had the chokes wide open and kept the market flooded with cheap oil. Read post #5095, I'm not sure domestic demand has risen that much, but global demand is at its highest level. Even the middle class of Third World countries can now afford a clunker. A Global Economy affects us all, the good and the bad. CHIEF
  5. If I were a candidate running for a national political office. My energy stance would be to offer guaranteed interest free loans to refiners to update refineries to refine WTI, comply with CAA and GSPS standards, and to offer the same loans for any regulations that get issued at a further date. Open up the bottleneck. As domestic demand goes down, export refined products to our neighbors, Third World countries aren't going to be buying Teslas. It's a National Security issue at this point. CHIEF
  6. https://cwilliamsmallinglaw.com/global_pictures/Bill_Smalling_Will_Refining_survive_the_CAA.pdf Since the CAA costs as a percent of total annual refinery sales would be just over one percent, the refining industry would survive the CAA. However, the increasing CAA requirements such as GHG regulation through the CAA, the proposed ozone NAAQS and the E15 mandate and the RFS, together with downward U.S. gasoline consumption and refining capacity will increase the business pressures on the refining industry. All of the costs to comply with the Clean Air Act are front loaded, in an industry that is falling out of favor with government sentiment. The juice isn't worth the squeeze. The total capacity closed since 2010 is around 1,280,000 BBL/D, most of which is located on the U.S. East Coast. The article was written in 2011 when there wasn't a shortage of refined products, but a surplus. We are now in a shortage of refined products, but eliminated the capacity to keep up. CHIEF
  7. Correct on the government discouraging loans. The EPA is to blame for having no new refineries since the 70’s. If we could just get all our refineries up and running, modernize and increase the capacity of our existing ones, and keep from selling and dismantling existing refineries, these prices would probably go away. The concept of going full electric is not a 5-10 year plan. GM and any car manufacturer that says they will no longer produce IC vehicles or hybrids after 2035 is signing their death certificate. The concept, at best, is a 50 year plan, but more like a 75 year plan. The dumbasses that think it could be done in 5-10 years have never set foot in places like Guthrie, TX. or Vaughn, NM. Building $2mm recharging stations in towns that see maybe 20-25 fill-ups per day is ludicrous. There are vast swaths of the nation that are rural and desolate. CHIEF
  8. It’s not the producers, it is refining capacity. Refiners need assurance from the government that there will be a demand for their product long term. Offer government incentives that will allow for increasing capacity. If not, these gas prices are here to stay. Do whatever it takes to get refineries that have gone off line back up and running, and whatever it takes to modernize existing refineries. It is now a matter of national security. CHIEF
  9. Not shut in, just choke back, especially if buyer's storage is full. CHIEF
  10. Cheapest place to store it is in the ground. CHIEF
  11. When did zero cost refinancing begin? It seems that is where the disconnect with people in their 60's and 70's lies, or at least the ones in rural areas. Quite a few are land rich, but money poor. They never really looked into refinancing, that seems like an untapped market. A lot of them have a "note" at the land bank, or with Farmer's Credit. They never really looked into mortgage companies. CHIEF
  12. True. I was just using that analogy to show a worst case scenario. But that was exactly what my in-laws did. I know quite a few rural people that bought property around 2000, with interest rates above 6%, that have never moved. They were comfortable with their payment then, and can't be bothered by going through the trouble of refinancing. These folk's daily browsing of the internet is probably about 30 minutes, and refinancing is the last thing on their mind.
  13. Just dehydrate the water, make it into tiny pills. Drive the pills to the drought location throw out a few pills and a few drops of water on them, and "poof" you've made enough water to fill up every lake between Buchanan and Lady Bird. Easy, peasy. CHIEF
  14. On a $350k home at 2.5%, monthly payment is $1382.92, total interest paid, $147,852.33. The same home at 7%, monthly payment is $2328.56, total interest paid, $488,281.14. That is payment only, 30 year fixed with no additional payments. So you basically pay a little under 2.5X the original price of the house. CHIEF
  15. I'm hoping so, but I ran a mortgage amortization on a $350k home last night, and the difference, in payments between a 3.5% loan, and 7% was right at $1k/month. It went from around $1350ish to over $2300, before taxes, PMI, and other escrowed items. I'm not sure we are going to see home prices drop 50%, but who knows. CHIEF
  16. Depends on your market. Ours will slow down, but will probably go from 85% cash buyers to 100%. The 50 year olds will buy the houses of the 70 year olds that are downsizing to the homes owned by the 80 year old folks, that are moving into Assisted Living, or in with their 50 year old children. CHIEF
  17. Here is the old thread you were unable to find, tons of great recommendations and advice. CHIEF
  18. Sundays are fucked. Come back on 281 from Wichita Falls on the way back and hit Herd's in Jacksboro, early, during the week. It's worth altering plans. CHIEF
  19. I've known you for a quarter-century, and never knew this. What an awesome story, and you got a brother out of it. CHIEF
  20. and they will all end up Pink Floyd fans...the end. CHIEF
  21. Congrats Brat that’s a long time. It will be 29 for me this year. 55 years with the same woman is the exception, not the rule. You are both doing something right. CHIEF
  22. I parked my diesel F350 on May 16th, at the shop, it hasn't moved since. CHIEF
  23. We need fossil fuel, and will need it for decades to come. The idea that we can just snap our fingers and be off of fossil fuels in five or ten years is mind-numbingly stupid. This is a good video that shows that an electric vehicle with the same range as a conventional vehicle (400 miles) has a larger carbon footprint than a conventional vehicle. A conventional vehicle starts off with a conventional footprint of about six tons. A Tesla starts out at 12 tons. CHIEF
  24. When the bottom dropped out in the mid-eighties, it was just cheaper to buy from OPEC. Fracing technology was no where near what it is today, or even a decade ago. I remember my Dad being absolutely livid, that the Railroad Commission was forcing operators in the Permian to plug thousands of wells in the Spraberry and Dean formations. He said it would never be economical to drill those formations again. He was right, based on 1980's technology. It wasn't really feasible to spend R&D money until around 2003-2004 when the Barnett Shale, and robust gas prices came along. That is when technology really took off and new drilling rigs, multi-stage fracing, steerable drill bits, and all of the supporting infrastructure really took off. The Permian is where companies go to have the greatest success rate. There are tens of thousands of well logs, from the 1930's to the present for the geologists, and engineers to work off of. The whole basin is basically mapped for a 100% success rate. That is what you are seeing at the end of that graph. As long as prices support it, that map will continue the same trajectory, or possibly rise even faster. It is beyond time to build some new refineries to match what can be produced. Ones that can refine WTI. CHIEF
  25. Happened to a buddy of mine from college. Even if he picked up a listing, his broker requires that the listing is hers, and it is up to her agents to find a buyer. That's a crock of shit. Buyer agents are dropping like flies. Luckily, he owns three daycare centers and just bought a stone and rock supply business. He was hitting me up to use him whenever I go back to building and I found out he was not doing real estate at this time. Listing agents are still feasting, and buyer agents are starving, and have been for over a year. CHIEF
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